AUD/USD

Dollar extreme overbought sorry all I am switching between typing and on the phone getting information and scrolling charts lol*

ooooooooooh you getting some insider information ?

Nice little falling star on 15M chart.
Holding onto my short from 1.0568.

Wow... you are good at multi tasking.

About the floor traders. How do you know what they will do. I have never been on a trading floor. So, I can't imagine their thought process and the routines they must follow through out their day. I imagined is someone worked on a trading floor, and then started to trade for themselves, they might have a very good idea what the big players were doing. Or in other words, they would be better than most people at price action.

I wonder if Wall Street is gonna hammer 1.0500 down again

I'm anticipating a big wild ride tomorrow (Friday -- no big news though). AU is acting quite weird today, compared to other crossUSD. I'll be watching closely when the Asian market opens tomorrow.

It's just my two cents... Sorry if nothing happens

Hello all: Obviously the handle is different had issues logging into the home systems from the office system. You might see me post under two handles (jplazard, jplazard2) From night to day. Back to the market.

PairMeUp: I have guys on the CME floor who are friends and sometimes I route trades through them to get a feel for the Cash (spot) and Futures(forward) market to see what the Opening range is between the two. I will post later today what I am talking about as today was a great example AUD/USD was choppy and almost ready to crack lower but if you saw the futures side we were steady flat lined. As for knowing what side the will offer/bid I am not certain but once that bell rings that is more liquidity coming in that can add clues on direction.

Update: typing now as the price is spiking I hope you all are enjoying the ride with me or if not I understand today’s PA was confusing for the spot side.

Still Long: EU AU
Still Short: DOLLAR (/dx) charts to follow on levels that could be obtained today at the close.

Here is the chart I drew up earlier at NY (jplazard) open we kissed the 78.6% pefectly before some profit taking came in. I closed 80% long AU still have +2 contracts open for a EOD push to the 7.86%push or even maybe the 88.6% push.

Sorry for the delay as the post are being reviewed because I am a junior memeber at the house.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...10#post5933410

correction on the post above when I switched from short to long entry was 1.0485* (1.0465 not possible) sorry about that mistake I try to do too many things at once.

Here is dollar update as well for those wanting to know will this buying continue tomorrow or is dollar selloff just going back to lower channel range. Honestly I think we won't break 82 unless a major game changer comes back into the market or that all inspiring word is spoken by Mr. Ben.

Personally I think we stay in the lower range so I most likely will take off my short Dollar at EOD.

AUD longs unless news comes out don't get frazzled by inactivity as a reason to get out of the poisiton always wait for liquidity to pick back up to determine exit or hold to the upside.

Hmmmmm I'd say 550-560 (if it breaks 520!!!), then 425...

Hey JP some nice trades you've called here, looks like you are having a good week. I haven't shorted this pair yet, I got shaken out of my previous longs with too much aggressive pyramiding. We had a brief downside break of the weekly range, but now it has move back inside the weekly range/support, and I am long again, from 1.0475. Another move down from these levels would be a pretty strong bearish signal to me, so I am hoping this will drift a little higher over the next few hours. I see potential here for another intermediate uptrend, that could take it above previous highs.

Aldente,

Thank you yes that break I took really relaxed my emotions and not trying to corner a market (not possible yet lol ) just because I believe it should be at a certain price.

I would wait off on that short at least for NY. Here is some food for thought Mid day edition.

Consider this /ES is only trading 7points away (1419H) from a new YTD high I know were all saved now....We will see today/tomorrow/weekend of articles/blogs/tweets from everyone saying go long the equity market and 'here is a good time to buy'....I think we will clear a new YTD high by Monday or at least trade within a point or two from it...Don't short the AUD right now the calvary will be coming in saying buy buy buy... Aud could very well gap to 1.06 by Sunday open if we don't reach it tomorrow.

Here is where you want to start consider shorting.

Greece will aprroach Germany sometime next week for an extension (headline risk wil cause a chink in ES)

2. German Manufacturing and I believe CNY numbers as well

3. just look at the chart below ES is so close to new YTD high and RSI is approaching extreme overbought levels

To all traders here I am not claiming to know what the market is going to do but for those who don't want to wait for a vauge 'picture' that really has no meaning look at all the charts and Remeber the date Sept 1 as this could be either a start to a nice sell off in AUD or a run back to 1.08

If your wanting that big trade this year where your account explodes if you ride the trend look to Next month. In the meantime play the channels and the breakouts. Peace

If we can touch 1.0526 (78.6%ext) or close in the channel (white) then I am going to hold this long until ES hits that new YTD high or at least gets a point or two near it. Ben will either provide all of us with a Soros type trade come the month of sept where you go in heavy

Long= to 1.08 QE3 annoucment at 'jackson hold'
Short to 1.02 /ES Rsi breakdown, No QE

I encourage all of you even though I know some of you are intraday traders to look at MAY and ask yourself could we have such an easy trade to pyramid in and ride till the cash register explodes. I know I will be gunning for that trade.

Best to all of you next month and the remainder of this week as well.

Just closed out entire dollar short from this morning. All EU AU longs will be held per the ES new YTD high target tomorrow or Sunday.

Dollar Flat
Eur continued from this morning Long target 1.24
AUD rest of long (20%)looking for target 1.0550-1.06 and might get back in on the heavy side long if we trade to 1.0505

Will update on more detailed levels come London open right now going to sleep for a few hours.

Possible H&S at 2H... Currently building second shoulder (if it goes to ~560).

Theorical target: ~1.0280

Quote jplazard
“Side note: I think I need to start a journal looking at the AUD/USD post's I believe either a lot of people left or I just post too much (might be the latter ) sorry all I will cut back as I know some of my post cover other insturments that might not be of interest.”

I suspect there are a lot who have left as there is another AUD/USD forum. Whilst some of what is posted there is helpful and some funny there is also a lot of vague chatter and it takes a lot of time to wade through. I’m increasingly thinking that it is not worth the effort to do so and may just try and follow one or two posters who are more useful. Thus I say keep up your posting here as I too find it helpful, even if we are in different time zones and I don’t see some posts for half a day.

I’m a relatively new trader focusing solely on AUD/USD at present and with a medium term short bias, although more than happy for it to get to 1.08+ as that’s all the better to short. I don’t understand some terms, eg you have used ES?

Quote jplazard2
“Long= to 1.08 QE3 annoucment at 'jackson hold'
Short to 1.02 /ES Rsi breakdown, No QE”

I have been following the last couple of FOMC meetings with the expectation of no QE3 given they had recent twist extension. I have however been disappointed at the lack of volatility following the meetings though (although compared to 22/9/11 500 pip movement when twist was announced and market presumably expecting QE3 it’s always going to be low volatility). Given my disappointment I am curious as to why you think this time might be different? I can fully understand that IF QE3 was announced there would be substantial rise in AUD/USD so my question is more as to your reasoning for a big drop this time.

Don'tKnow.


All I know is broken H1 TL down being tested NOW. What will she do????

Sustain break or move lower.?

I am voting sustain break and move higher to retest resistance. BUT, news can rock the Aussie easily so tread carefully.




XT

Just look at the prior bullish movement and how long the bears took to push her back down to the breakout area. If I am reading the PA correctly, one should be bullish this pair.

Plus the neg roll is horrible. I can only understand day traders that short this pair.

Must be nice to have those kinds of friends. What is CME? How can a person use the spreads between spot and futures to bettre read Price Action? Thanks by the way for your responces. I enjoy learning as much as I can.

I'll just throw this out there,

If the PA suggests up, you can see the new TL in my chart below as well as a horizontal line suggesting a possible entry area. SHOULD we continue up.

TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK AND DYODD>