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Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #5,241
  • Jul 22, 2012 6:00pm Jul 22, 2012 6:00pm
usd/cad.
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  • #5,242
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:23am Jul 26, 2012 6:23am
It's interesting how major ECB announcements coincide with major energy points. It was true for the LTRO on the downside and it is true today with Draghi's bond buying pledge. Note how the big and small forks both have the same type of frequency on their UML and ML. And note how the latest ML bounces on the two forks converge. I was looking for 1.18 but with an announcemnet like this I don't see how the euro can go down. This afternoon is going to be risk on in the equity markets like we've rarily seen. I think the euro establishment recognizes there is a big catastrophe looming and that they absolutely need to act. Giving away fiscal packages creates too much bad press so they are going to do it monetarily using fancy excuses like "high yields interfere with proper monetary transmission".
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Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD (Daily) 15_09_2011 - 25_07_2012.jpg Size: 74 KB
  • #5,243
  • Jul 28, 2012 1:54am Jul 28, 2012 1:54am
Obscure pair..

Swissie/KoreanWon Daily - So far bouncing from the lower parallel

http://i47.tinypic.com/ix5ooi.jpg
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  • #5,244
  • Jul 31, 2012 2:05pm Jul 31, 2012 2:05pm
It would be neat price started bouncing off that CHFKRW LML. Here are some of my charts on more run of the mill pairs.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD (Daily) 05_04_2012 - 30_07_2012.jpg Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: $USDCAD (Weekly) Week 40_2010 - Week 31_2012.jpg Size: 71 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: $USDJPY (Daily) 18_07_2011 - 30_07_2012.jpg Size: 78 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: $GBPUSD (Daily) 26_10_2009 - 30_07_2012.jpg Size: 98 KB
  • #5,245
  • Aug 3, 2012 9:24am Aug 3, 2012 9:24am
Hi Himmel,
Choosing A and B pivots for a fork is usually not a problem. You just pick major highs and lows.
Choosing C is the tricky part. How can you know if your C will hold and become a major high or low ahead of time?
It's impossible to know for sure, but some pointers exist. The more clues you can line up the better. Even then you can be wrong, so always use good reward to risk.
The attached picture shows a fork that ended up working perfectly. Let's say you're at the beginning of April and you don't know what's going to happen to the right in the shaded area. How could you know that your C is valid and will ultimately take you to the ML or UML?
Look at the tail. Look at the trend C is part of. Look at the action around C. Look at the action off the LML. Look at the mini-trend building off the LML. These are just some of the things you should be looking at. If you search for pitchfork videos online you will learn about other types of clues.
Hope this helps.
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Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD (Daily) 05_09_2005 - 04_08_2006.jpg Size: 74 KB
  • #5,246
  • Aug 3, 2012 9:50am Aug 3, 2012 9:50am
eu m15 edging medianline. note suppply zone and regular bearish divergence.
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  • #5,247
  • Aug 7, 2012 4:30am Aug 7, 2012 4:30am
Hello, Scrutch.. Can you let me know where can I donwload the Andrews Midian Line indicator as show in your chart ? Can you kindly show me where to download it ? thanks

Quoting Scrutch
Daily EU is at a decision point...resistance at 1.4335, right on the weekend close.
Approaching a small energy point between the Bulls and Bears. Watch the lower time frames to determine direction of breakout. Use caution in case of a false break.
  • #5,248
  • Aug 14, 2012 4:33am Aug 14, 2012 4:33am
Been following this GBPAUD 20 min for a while - looking to see if there is another LP bounce......

beeb
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  • #5,249
  • Aug 14, 2012 7:05pm Aug 14, 2012 7:05pm
Beeb, I don't trade that instrument or that time frame but the fork is beautiful, thanks for sharing. I looked at the chart a few minutes ago and the fork bounced again, but you would have needed to pick a slightly different A. Personally, the test I like best on the fork is right after the double frequency on the ML. The fork was literally singing, highs were being broken repeatedly, and efficiency was at its max. Right now efficiency has dropped down and I have some doubts about the next bounce.
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  • #5,250
  • Aug 14, 2012 7:17pm Aug 14, 2012 7:17pm
This is an update of the daily/weekly pairs I'm watching. Basically I'm sensing a bit of dollar weakness. This would be consistent with my risk-on fundamental view for the rest of the year. Longer term there are huge fiscal and monetary headwinds, but right now inflation is low, which boosts the morale of consumers and allows central banks to pump money into the economy.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD (Daily) 03_11_2011 - 14_08_2012.jpg Size: 73 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: $GBPUSD (Daily) 06_12_2011 - 14_08_2012.jpg Size: 93 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: $USDJPY (Daily) 08_07_2011 - 14_08_2012.jpg Size: 87 KB
  • #5,251
  • Edited 2:04am Aug 15, 2012 1:31am | Edited 2:04am
Quoting Gemini
Beeb, I don't trade that instrument or that time frame but the fork is beautiful, thanks for sharing. I looked at the chart a few minutes ago and the fork bounced again, but you would have needed to pick a slightly different A. Personally, the test I like best on the fork is right after the double frequency on the ML. The fork was literally singing, highs were being broken repeatedly, and efficiency was at its max. Right now efficiency has dropped down and I have some doubts about the next bounce.
Gemini - thanks for your comments. I agree with you about it losing efficiency, but it's still running well and giving profit - all that means is that I trail my stop a bit tighter. I don't agree with you re the different A (and from what I can see a different B in your chart) and put it down to different timeframes. I have tried putting your fork on my data and IMHO it works less well - but each to his/her own

Updated GBPAUD 20 min chart

beeb

EDIT - btw your JPY Daily - try changing the blue fork from a Modified Schiff to an ordinary or unmodified Schiff - to my eyes it catches the lows better even though it's far too early for the fork to be considered validated.....
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  • #5,252
  • Aug 15, 2012 5:53am Aug 15, 2012 5:53am
Hi Beeb, our data is a little different. With your data it seems your fork continues to work beautifully. All the more power to your setup.
The JPY fork is already an unmodified schiff, but I see what you mean. If you take the absolute low of 75.50 as your A the unmodified schiff catches frequency even better. Cheers and I hope you can squeeze even more pips from that great fork.
  • #5,253
  • Aug 15, 2012 8:36am Aug 15, 2012 8:36am
GBPAUD 20 finally breached - played it a number of times. First entry and last exit circled...

beeb
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  • #5,254
  • Aug 16, 2012 7:51am Aug 16, 2012 7:51am
I am selling theUSD/CHF because the price could get to the Median Line, therefore I expect it to go down to the C line which is where my limit order is.
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Click to Enlarge Name: USD-CHF H1 8-16-2012 8-46-48 AM.jpg Size: 238 KB
  • #5,255
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:03am Aug 16, 2012 8:03am
I moved my stop loss order to just above the line I drew that intersected the midpoint of the the line between points B and C. The price has gone through the lower parallel line, but has not closed below it, but I am using the line through the midpoint has a resistence line.
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Click to Enlarge Name: USD-CHF H1 8-16-2012 8-58-05 AM.jpg Size: 235 KB
  • #5,256
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:19am Aug 16, 2012 8:19am
Quoting Dcb
I moved my stop loss order to just above the line I drew that intersected the midpoint of the the line between points B and C. The price has gone through the lower parallel line, but has not closed below it, but I am using the line through the midpoint has a resistence line.
I hope you don't mind me commenting but there is no validation whatsoever on that fork. I have the same coordinates on a 20 min timeframe but drawn as a Schiff - there is some evidence of harmony from quartile action...

beeb
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  • #5,257
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:22am Aug 16, 2012 8:22am
Your comments will always be welcome.
  • #5,258
  • Aug 16, 2012 9:08am Aug 16, 2012 9:08am
With the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index due to be released, I used the 15m bars and tightened my stop loss. My stop loss was hit with a gain of 28.5 PIPs.
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Click to Enlarge Name: USD-CHF m15 8-16-2012 9-56-53 AM.jpg Size: 190 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USD-CHF m15 8-16-2012 10-02-19 AM.jpg Size: 176 KB
  • #5,259
  • Aug 16, 2012 9:47am Aug 16, 2012 9:47am
I hate it when I play it too safe.
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Click to Enlarge Name: USD-CHF H1 8-16-2012 10-44-16 AM.jpg Size: 207 KB
  • #5,260
  • Aug 17, 2012 2:45am Aug 17, 2012 2:45am
The price for the USD/CHF is under the lower triggr line, so I am expecting it to continue to go down.
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