Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

The end is near.....

in any ponzi scheme there's a end. the rule of 72 says, it cant last.

After the drop from 1.051xx, the pattern becomes clear to me. I would say that 0449 may not be on the agenda now. IMHO

The end means this ........

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1343182005

the 4h euro closed lower.. oil completed a target.. a pull back after is normal. looking for 2239 min on euro.. so the aud should fall some more. since the ea has a st higher target unfulfilled. support for the aud may be tested. at least i c a decent chance of it..

nice uptrend

You see, Euro and Aussie are not relatives at all. I don't know why they are related.

they are because commodities are a show of the usd negative mirror image. aud is a commodity currency... when the dollar weakens do to commodities, the euro follows. the gbp is another because gb has a deep influence in oil.. commodities are priced in usd mostly.. the yen weakens when oil rises.

The Chinese government made a fortune from the West by exploiting it own people through low wages to provide goods that were based either on stolen or copyright Western technology. They have used part of this money to bring what was a very backward country into the modern world, but millions of its people have lived like peasants for hundreds of years, they live off the land and have had to be enticed away from their communities to work in the new factories. These new factory workers might have the disposable income you mention, but the majority of the Chinese people are poor, keeping their saving under their bed and would not take on credit like in the Western countries, so where is your market?

Places like the US and the UK already have most of their infrastructure in place so do not have this type of stimulus to give mass employment to the people.

The greed of the Western countries to accept exploited goods from China has seen many factories and communities come to an end, Sheffield in the UK was once the steel capital of Europe until along came cheap Chinese steel, now only specialized steel come from their with a loss of many communities. The Chinese took the steel market like many others through cheap labour.

However they have flooded the Western market with cheap goods for 30 years and every year they built more and more factories to keep up with this demand, but now this market can no longer take these goods at anything like the same capacity. So the Chinese factory workers are returning to the land, because the products they were making have nowhere to go.

This is the reality China might have a vast amount of money now and be top dog and they might keep on spending it on keeping their people busy for a few years, but they will not have new money like they had in the past, so the Australian Dollar and economy are in for a rough ride, which they managed to dodge in 2008/9.

Looks like this happens again now .....

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1345030616

you could add.. energy is the most expensive part of most manufacturing, not labor. and the new Chinese billionaires that need cheap labor have other countries to exploit now where labor is cheaper then china. as for as energy goes.. the u.s. has it, and more coming on line each day ng and oil. china has to put the energy it uses on a boat. it also has to ship in most of the raw materials used to make crap in a boat.. then make it,, then put it back on a ship to export it.. this added cost is not so cheap. but its getting cheaper.. the proof of that is Baltic dry shipping rates depression.. but if you dig a little deeper.. the reason the rates are coming down is lack of shipping.. meaning less work, so the ships drop rates.
when in the u.s. the energy comes from a pipe.. just open the valve.. or turn on the grid switch. then ship the product w/o the sea water cross. and the cost of it..

guess what country has a major part of gbp from shipping.. yep.. good old greece.. the same ones who took the euro 600 billion euro bailout. gee with shipping down, how will they pay what they couldn't pay before. more principle and higher interest.
it was a big deal when the u.s. bailed out the 700 b banks crap...
just imagine 600 b euros converted to usd.. kinda makes the 700 not so big..

rant over.. back on the meds..

no way #107311 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5932184#post5932184)

0475? hit on mine.. #107311 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5932184#post5932184)... come on 49 and 42

waited for this one almost 2 weeks.. and i may be stopped out in 1 m 0437/49

is it a "boolish" flag on a 4hr chart?

What the big boys are doing.................!

Hello,

Thank you for such an entertaining and educational thread. Forex trading is a lonely business and I have really enjoyed the cartoons and comments here.

With regards to China, I think they will have a harder landing than anticipated. And, this will affect the Aussie dollar. However, over the long term, China is better positioned to come out of this mess. First of all, China has ZERO DEBT. Credit cards didn't exist in China until recently. In addition, Chinese strategic planning is done for 100 years. It isn't done until the next election or the next financial report. They will have their challenges. Just in scope alone they have huge challenges ahead of them. Food and clean drinking water will be a challenge. It will be a challenge for the rest of the world too. The average age of a farmer in Japan is 64 years and in the US it is 58. Agriculture will be a huge growth area.

Corruption? Of course there is corruption there always is. This is nothing new but look at the outcome of corruption. Great Brittan ruled the world and the pound sterling was the world's reserve currency for almost 200 years. Now they are but a pale cast shadow of what they once were. Next the US Dollar became the world's reserve currency and it was backed by Gold. Now it is backed by oil the US doesn't own - Petrodollars. Thanks go to Henry Kissinger and OPEC. Perhaps the USD will be backed by natural gas in the future (smirk). Yes, the US dollar is currently the world's reserve currency but for how much longer? With this audience I don't think I need even mention the Euro.

Here is an interesting graph: http://stocktwits.com/message/7503146

The whole thing is a propped up house of cards. The central banks are the problem. Why should money created be based on debt? Just to make bankers wealthy? Wouldn't it be interesting to default on the very central banking system that has brought much of the world to the brink of financial ruin? These assets are already on their books...hmm...

I don't think I will bring up the bond market at this point. But, did anyone notice the rate increase in 10-year TIPS today? And there has been a great deal of volume on TBT. Hmm...what does it all mean?

In closing, and I will get off the soap box, I believe Asia is poised to be the center of the industrialized and financial world at some point in the future. Perhaps this is a question you should ask yourself - when China allows the Rinmimbi/Yuan to free float, will you trade it in the forex market? Personally, I think it will likely be the largest transference of wealth in history. This is just my opinion - but what do I know? I may be completely wrong. What is obvious is that we are living in unprecedented times - Trade carefully.

Happy Trades,
fxstir

Ps. Just in case you haven't seen this award winning video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swkq2E8mswI

Finally hoo hoo......................!!!

Retail Sales m/m 0.3% vs. 0.0% expected.

Lots of dollar hate out there.

Scalped GBP:USD at 1.5700
Short AUD:USD at 1.0497 again and will stack if it goes higher.

Happy Trades,
fxstir

Please don't follow my trades as you will likely loose your money.