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  • #3,101
  • Aug 15, 2012 5:49am Aug 15, 2012 5:49am
Quoting sue23
Just wanted to add a quick note to remind everyone that's back-testing using the new (and fabulous) indicator, that the results you see relate only to the PAST. There are no guarantees that the market will behave in the same or even a similar way in the future. When you change the settings and see an 'edge' which you can exploit, then go for it, but don't be greedy and risk too much money expecting the same results as the last 100 days.

One of the huge strengths of SSBO/CZs, is that it continues to work over the long term. But I really believe...
Good post Sue. First and foremost, I am trading this system having read through a lot of thread and I understand the basic principles of it....

That being said one of my main weaknesses over the past few months was reading the market and trying to find good areas of take profit let alone just trying to make profit in the first place...

What I've found with SSBO is that it takes the element of wondering what price is doing and what it might do out of the equation....its simplicity is what attracts me. I am not disagreeing with your statement above...I am not an experienced trader like yourself and the other thread leaders here.

For me personally, I have stuck to simply trading the signals without giving thought to what price is doing (rightly or wrongly). I could have taken profit on my EJ trade but I chose not to.

What is interesting and important though is the wealth of opinion and knowledge contained in this thread. Clearly Sue, you are a proven trader who's opinion should be respected and if I find my trading can be improved and tweaked by using yours and the other thread leaders' ideas then I will not hesitate. At the moment I'm making more successful trades than ever before...this is good.....very very good!
  • #3,102
  • Aug 15, 2012 5:59am Aug 15, 2012 5:59am
And also opens up another avenue of incorporating multiple take profit levels into the indicator and break even stops.....not that we want to over complicate it. I would be fascinated to see what affect having say moving stop to break even and taking half profits at TP1 of +10 pips then letting trade run to TP2.

I've read and seen people doing that so its another string to the bow, or a distraction. Personally I'm sticking to my guns unless my research tells me my trading style could be improved with things such as FIB.
  • #3,103
  • Aug 15, 2012 6:12am Aug 15, 2012 6:12am
[quote=sue23;5929996]Just wanted to add a quick note to remind everyone that's back-testing using the new (and fabulous) indicator, that the results you see relate only to the PAST. There are no guarantees that the market will behave in the same or even a similar way in the future. When you change the settings and see an 'edge' which you can exploit, then go for it, but don't be greedy and risk too much money expecting the same results as the last 100 days.

Hi Sue, thanks for your reply.

I do agree that "past performance doesn't guarantee future results" but it certainly is a starting point because that's all we really have to go by. But I think going forward we need to closely monitor the pairs we trade to make sure they're not changing behavior, in which case we may have to adjust our parameters here and there to maintain consistency.

Especially if we're using an EA we need to monitor to make adjustments if needed and not become complacent.

I also use descretion when I'm trading, S/R levels, longer term charts etc., but many times I over-analyze and it doesn't work to my advantage.

What I think is really dangerous is this Martingale idea. I've seen some have gotten the profitability all the way up to 100% which gets people very excited. And this is certainly not guaranteed for the future, and when it does fail it's monumental, so I choose not to use it.

Let's see how things go. I think we certainly have an edge here.
"Be the change that you wish to see in the world." --Gandhi
  • #3,104
  • Edited 8:12am Aug 15, 2012 7:54am | Edited 8:12am
Well that's the set completed (to a certain degree)....I closed out a couple of mins before candle close as it was a big candle and there was 20 pips on the table so took that and ran.

Correct decision? Who knows....double stake so made back what I lost today with a small profit plus the E/U trade so overall nicely up on the day's work...BOOOOYAH!

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Following Sue's advice of common sense trading there...
  • #3,105
  • Aug 15, 2012 7:56am Aug 15, 2012 7:56am
Quoting moodybot
Hi

I noticed on your chart that the parameters that you described in your post did not match up.

M.

Thanks! I know what you mean now!

Well, I did say 100% trade set wins is a "nice to have", and I would "try" to bring maximum reversals to 4 or below.. which implies that it's not part of my main acid test... which is to bring total CZs per week to below 3 per pair per TF.

All the new settings only assists in giving me a rough gauge of what to expect. But since it's based on past performance then it's by no means to be relied upon in the final analysis.

Thanks again for bringing the matter up! Sometimes I just need to articulate my own rules even to myself just as a reminder..
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #3,106
  • Edited 8:42am Aug 15, 2012 8:25am | Edited 8:42am
I have spent the last few weeks reading, taking notes and trying some demo trades. I love this approach to the market. I have been frustrated in the past because the market never cared or followed my bias. Finally, I don't need a bias!! It is undeniable that any and every consolidation will eventually breakout. Now I just have to follow what the market is telling me. Thank you Forexhard and Xux99 for teaching how to follow what the market is saying.

Here is a picture of my latest trade on EURUSD.
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  • #3,107
  • Aug 15, 2012 11:57pm Aug 15, 2012 11:57pm
Hi forexHard, i ve been reading your thread, traded it for a week, got pretty good result so far but i got some questions:
there is two different indicators posted , they do draw almost same charts but differents setting, is there anything other than the setting value diferent with em?
the other thing i realized in the first indicator ,it calculate overal pips earned depending on setting and on the second one i couldnt get that, is it because of that its not the last update may be?
i also tried to twick some parameters to get more overal pip in the 100 days history, when i change the min bar after close from 0 to 3 , i get very different results on different pair,the indicator shows in most of the pairs more pips earned on 0 minbar exept g/u that gives more pips with higher min bar closed after breakout,is it normal to have these results in your opinion?
and can we depend on these past tests to get result in future?
in that case for most pairs would be better to enter right after breacking without waiting for second candle exept g/u, even other pound pairs pays more pips with entering right away on couple of crosses i got more pips on 1 bar closed after break out,
do u suggest that i stick to two bar close to avoid overtrading or trust the pip value i get from the indicator?
thanks for the thread
  • #3,108
  • Aug 16, 2012 1:22am Aug 16, 2012 1:22am
Again going back to Sue's point about using common sense, Cable here has essentially broken out and gone too far for trading. I only trade at the start of the Frankfurt open (7am GMT) so miss any breakouts before that.

With my one close outside the buffer, the entry is miles away from the box and so I'm leaving this one and monitoring the EU. Again I'm going with the approach that if there is a more solid setup on another pair that looks better then I have no problem ignoring another pair.

Would be interested on people's views...

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Indeed is it ok to hop onto a trade essentially if a trade set has begun whilst your asleep like the above? Either way I'm looking at the EU for a better entry.
  • #3,109
  • Aug 16, 2012 1:29am Aug 16, 2012 1:29am
Quoting A.w.o.l
Again going back to Sue's point about using common sense, Cable here has essentially broken out and gone too far for trading. I only trade at the start of the Frankfurt open (7am GMT) so miss any breakouts before that.

With my one close outside the buffer, the entry is miles away from the box and so I'm leaving this one and monitoring the EU. Again I'm going with the approach that if there is a more solid setup on another pair that looks better then I have no problem ignoring another pair.

Would be interested on people's views...

Attachment

Indeed...
I use pending orders, on some pairs the indi produces better results if you wait for the price to close outside the buffer. But I have pending orders set to take the break out myself.

I guess it's whatever suits though. You'll miss some nice breakouts if you wait for the closing candle, but it will also keep you out of some losers that were just spikes.

Like you said, I'm also wary of trading too long before euro opening. But I don't wait for Frankfurt as sometimes a large opening candle signals the direction for the day and then you've missed the boat. Will will look to place pending orders from about half an hour before.

But as always with this strategy it's what you're comfortable with.

I never know what's gonna happen, so how can I be wrong?
  • #3,110
  • Aug 16, 2012 1:47am Aug 16, 2012 1:47am
Quoting caseypin
I use pending orders, on some pairs the indi produces better results if you wait for the price to close outside the buffer. But I have pending orders set to take the break out myself.

I guess it's whatever suits though. You'll miss some nice breakouts if you wait for the closing candle, but it will also keep you out of some losers that were just spikes.

Like you said, I'm also wary of trading too long before euro opening. But I don't wait for Frankfurt as sometimes a large opening candle signals the direction for the day and then you've missed...
Yeah its interesting you say that because I did initially have a 2 pip no close setting on everything...but I found that when I changed my settings, my individual win rate increased without a loss in any net pips. Of course everyone's settings are different.

Thanks for the feedback, I just wanted some opinion on that particular scenario so cheers for your input!

Green pips to all!
  • #3,111
  • Aug 16, 2012 1:58am Aug 16, 2012 1:58am
Quoting A.w.o.l
Yeah its interesting you say that because I did initially have a 2 pip no close setting on everything...but I found that when I changed my settings, my individual win rate increased without a loss in any net pips. Of course everyone's settings are different.

Thanks for the feedback, I just wanted some opinion on that particular scenario so cheers for your input!

Green pips to all!
Yea the buffer settings can make a big difference. I find 5 pips seems to work well as a starting point. But the EUR/AUD works better with 2 pips.

Anyway good luck
I never know what's gonna happen, so how can I be wrong?
  • #3,112
  • Aug 16, 2012 2:11am Aug 16, 2012 2:11am
Quoting caseypin
Yea the buffer settings can make a big difference. I find 5 pips seems to work well as a starting point. But the EUR/AUD works better with 2 pips.

Anyway good luck
Another thing is I'm looking at the EU now for a trade...however my settings show a win rate of only 43% on trade 2....trade 3 is 75% and trade 4 of which there is only 1 = 100%. I'm going to treat all missed breakouts from the early hours very carefully....statistically it doesn't make sense to trade the second breakout. The good thing though is that as its the first trade of the day essentially, lot size is normal and not martingaled.

I don't think this goes against system rules but I might be wrong? I'm just looking to trade sensibly and if the numbers say its not in my favor to trade yet then I don't think I'm being silly waiting for the higher probability third breakout?

I've had a great week and so don't want to over trade
  • #3,113
  • Aug 16, 2012 3:32am Aug 16, 2012 3:32am
Quoting caseypin
I use pending orders, on some pairs the indi produces better results if you wait for the price to close outside the buffer. But I have pending orders set to take the break out myself.

I guess it's whatever suits though. You'll miss some nice breakouts if you wait for the closing candle, but it will also keep you out of some losers that were just spikes.

Like you said, I'm also wary of trading too long before euro opening. But I don't wait for Frankfurt as sometimes a large opening candle signals the direction for the day and then you've missed...
Hey, may i know how far(range in pip) u set ur pending order at? (outside the box of course)
Because some pending orders tend to affect by 'false breakout' and 'spike'. For example the price when up out of the box and trigger your pending order (long position) and move down to the box, then hit SL.
  • #3,114
  • Aug 16, 2012 3:35am Aug 16, 2012 3:35am
I think this is what they meant by ' false breakout ' ?
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  • #3,115
  • Aug 16, 2012 5:45am Aug 16, 2012 5:45am
Quoting Nameless798
Hey, may i know how far(range in pip) u set ur pending order at? (outside the box of course)
Because some pending orders tend to affect by 'false breakout' and 'spike'. For example the price when up out of the box and trigger your pending order (long position) and move down to the box, then hit SL.
Hey there, it's been discussed here before. It's not a 'false breakout', just a breakout that didn't hit TP. I wouldn't call that one a spike. I think that chart is EU? Right?

I wasn't awake to catch the long trade but I am in the EU short. Price is doing nothing, I think it's waiting for some news to give it a kick (I hope).


Anyway, I place pending orders at my buffer line on this pair. That's what the buffer line is for (for me). But where you place yours is your call, as is waiting for the price to close (if that's your way). Tweak the settings till you find results you're happy with. If you look at previous pics, everyone is different. That's the point.

Good luck
I never know what's gonna happen, so how can I be wrong?
  • #3,116
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:08am Aug 16, 2012 6:08am
Quoting caseypin
Hey there, it's been discussed here before. It's not a 'false breakout', just a breakout that didn't hit TP. I wouldn't call that one a spike. I think that chart is EU? Right?

I wasn't awake to catch the long trade but I am in the EU short. Price is doing nothing, I think it's waiting for some news to give it a kick (I hope).


Anyway, I place pending orders at my buffer line on this pair. That's what the buffer line is for (for me). But where you place yours is your call, as is waiting for the price to close (if that's your way). Tweak the...
Sorry, I'm new in forex..may i know what do you mean by ' buffer line ' ? I just want to know how is your way to set pending order, your sharing will be appreciated
  • #3,117
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:14am Aug 16, 2012 6:14am
Quoting Nameless798
Sorry, I'm new in forex..may i know what do you mean by ' buffer line ' ? I just want to know how is your way to set pending order, your sharing will be appreciated
Sorry Dude, I'll get in trouble from the op. This thread is one of those 'I can only show you the door, you have to walk through it' threads.

Best thing is to take the time to read the thread from the start, follow the instructions from there. Draw your own CZ boxes. play with a demo account and get comfortable with it. Make this system your own.

Seems harsh but it is much better than following blindly.

This strategy definitely works. just take the time to learn it properly. Don't forget forex is unpredictable. You don't know what will happen, we're just trying to piggy back a ride and grab some pips.

That's the beauty of stairsteps. You don't feel the need for prediction, just go with the flow.

Good luck
I never know what's gonna happen, so how can I be wrong?
  • #3,118
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:20am Aug 16, 2012 8:20am
20 pips both ways today on cable - very good
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  • #3,119
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:30am Aug 16, 2012 8:30am
Here is a picture of my just completed 5 minute GBPUSD trade
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  • #3,120
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:45am Aug 16, 2012 8:45am
Missed this one and one of my favourite pairs but can't win them all
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