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  • #6,121
  • Aug 15, 2012 9:05pm Aug 15, 2012 9:05pm
Quoting DaddyBear
May not be ...... Yesterday bears was in control but gave way to bulls this morning. Today bulls are in control but may give way to bears later....... This is the way it is.
oh ya... absolutely...! it already look like bears going to take control.... as the price still struck within the channel.... still...
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  • #6,122
  • Edited 9:51pm Aug 15, 2012 9:14pm | Edited 9:51pm
Quoting fixed4fun
What I am saying is we all know the "building boom" in China (financed by the Chinese gov't more than real demand) will eventually slow and their need for Aussie copper, coal, nat. gas will diminish. We all know things are not really that great in the US, the stock market is just propped up by the hope of QE 3. Plus, as Europe falls into recession, the need for commodities will diminish. Australia's strenght was built largely on the building boom of the 2000s. I still think they have a strong economy, but they are more likely to lower interest...
You know I hear a lot of this from China bears like the dailyfx team and sprach analyst people. But I think this is nonsense because they're basing their analyst on too much negative US propaganda about China.

The thing is I reckon the Chinese government is doing a great job precisely because they don't govern their country like a corporation. They're more long term in their views, and don't forget these guys have been growing their economy for 10% per year not since the 2000's but since the 1970's.

Governments are suppose to be sandbox builders, building infrastructure and the like, which may not be profitable in the short term. But it allows small businesses who can't afford to build entire sewage systems, roads, hospitals and the like to come in and start operating. Eventually these will become successful and the government can be profitable again not from the roads etc but from the taxes these economic activities generate. I think the Americans forgetting this kind of bottom-up nation building that their forebears undertook.

China has a population of 1.6 billion. The majority of the buildup in the last decade have only been around the special economic zones in around the pearl river delta and the north east. The rest of the country haven't even been touched yet. In fact this is the primary reason there's so many migrants having to shuttling back and forth between their home provinces and these areas to get jobs. When the government finish building the rail capacity to connect the western and inner provinces to the coastal areas and the Chinese equivalent of US mid western cities begin to take shape.... if anything the real building boom hasn't even begun.

As for the end of the carry trade comment, the US don't forget has the world's largest deficit, every 0.1% rate mean billions more in interest rate payments they'll have to make. They're barely getting by as it is what with fiscal cliff stuff, the only way forward is either keep the interest rate perpetually low, try and print their way out or default on their debts. Currently the US are benefiting from the eurozone crisis as investors fleeing ez assets to US treasuries lowering the amount of interest they have to pay. Effectively doing the work of the Fed for them. I suspect the real trigger for the next QE will be not be state of the economy but when investors flee US treasuries again, interest goes up, politicians can't fund any more pork barreling projects and the Fed steps in, looking like a hero and achieving maximum surprise.
  • #6,123
  • Aug 15, 2012 9:15pm Aug 15, 2012 9:15pm
Quoting FX-Pro
oh ya... absolutely...! it already look like bears going to take control.... as the price still struck within the channel.... still...
I guess you use a small TF channel. The Aussie will move above your channel and reach H4 UTL.
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,124
  • Aug 15, 2012 9:21pm Aug 15, 2012 9:21pm
Yes... that channel is from 1H...
  • #6,125
  • Aug 15, 2012 9:23pm Aug 15, 2012 9:23pm
Quoting FX-Pro
oh ya... absolutely...! it already look like bears going to take control.... as the price still struck within the channel.... still...
asia's movement has always been slow, generally going back to resistance and test it, or moving to support to test it wherever the price is near.

due to the lack of volume, i will use fast stoch 5,3,3 to see the supply/demand and using previous PA candle to identify support/resistance to scalp.

Only until EUROPE or some volume starts to move into the market, i don't call the market alive yet, because the 1hour bar can practically move within just 10pips or less and yet stoch can already says high or low during New york close into asia's hours.

I will stay aside from placing an entry until near some trigger that can move the market. So this price always moves up and down, its normal until a hammer from each side starts to come in and they fight see whoever hits the stop loss or buy sell stops will win.

Or the bear camp from offers will come to help push it down, and bull camp from bids will help to push it up, and we get " RANGING ". until one side decide to give in or more bears or bulls start to take stop loss to exit the margin, then the other side will prevail.

On at the point of resistance, these leavers will join the offers bear camp, and vice versa at point of support, the leavers from bull will join the new bid camp, bull camp.

that's how i see it moves everyday. :|

i like ur chart fx-pro easy and straight forward.
  • #6,126
  • Aug 15, 2012 9:31pm Aug 15, 2012 9:31pm
Hello

10500 so we are thinking it could go UP or Down

I will consult with the oracle

This could take a while but never fear

Look someone has to do this

I don't mind returning with empty balls

But lately I have noticed waking up with sore anus

Now clearly I have done my bit for the team

Its only fair that we take turns

Thank You
  • #6,127
  • Aug 15, 2012 9:37pm Aug 15, 2012 9:37pm
Quoting Iro
You know I hear a lot of this from China bears like the dailyfx team and sprach analyst people. But I think this is nonsense because they're basing their analyst on too much negative US propaganda about China.

The thing is I reckon the Chinese government is doing a great job because they don't govern their country like a corporation. They're more long term in their views, and don't forget these guys have been growing their economy for 10% per year not since the 2000's but since the 1970's.

Governments are suppose to be sandbox builders, building...
You've got a strong point about what happened in China. I have studied China for a long time and have some different views from yours.

First, China started from ground zero. Having 10% growth for 30 years is really nothing.

Second, China does not allow land ownership. CCP controls everything including anything in people's brains. Is this a normal way to build a nation?

China does not have a population of 1.6 billion. It is 1,344,130,000 - 2011. These people are not assets but a huge burden to feed. The coming food shortage will bring the US back to the market driving force again. For China and India, the huge population is not a blessing when food and water become important commodities in the near future. At that time, the frequency of social unrest will become a norm in China.
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,128
  • Aug 15, 2012 9:43pm Aug 15, 2012 9:43pm
Well, I will defer to you regarding China and their infastructure. I've never been there. However, besides the interstate highway system and some dams during the depression, I'm not sure the US government has gone around building high rises etc. Also, Bernie Madoff made 12% a year for a long time too....draw your own conclusions. Gov't is never better than free markets, esp. unregulated gov't. But really what I wanted to respond to is the interest rates. You are correct, the Fed desperately wants to keep them low; but at some point it may get out of their hands. They can only create so much demand (by purchasing the bonds themselves.) By no means do I think the US debt is solvable. I just think regarding this pair, another 100 basis points by each and the carry is almost gone.
  • #6,129
  • Aug 15, 2012 9:46pm Aug 15, 2012 9:46pm

I think it wont be long for me before I graduate to a full time trader after following this forum for the past couple of weeks, where we talk about bulls and bears, portable toilets, taking a dump, trading in the nude, DB's cartoons and all sorts of other stuff that goes on here my education level has significantly increased in such a short time frame... thank you to everyone who has been contributing to this wondrful forum and keep up the great work.
  • #6,130
  • Edited 10:12pm Aug 15, 2012 9:49pm | Edited 10:12pm
Quoting 5percent
asia's movement has always been slow, generally going back to resistance and test it, or moving to support to test it wherever the price is near.

i like ur chart fx-pro easy and straight forward.
Appreciate it, Good insight....

My Chart is strictly "No Indicator Zone", i only trade Supply/Demand, Physiological level, with price action....

Regards,
FX-Pro
  • #6,131
  • Aug 15, 2012 9:54pm Aug 15, 2012 9:54pm
Quoting Daytrader74

I think it wont be long for me before I graduate to a full time trader after following this forum for the past couple of weeks, where we talk about bulls and bears, portable toilets, taking a dump, trading in the nude, DB's cartoons and all sorts of other stuff that goes on here my education level has significantly increased in such a short time frame... thank you to everyone who has been contributing to this wondrful forum and keep up the great work.

I thought you were a full time trader, aren't you?
daddybearforex. com
  • #6,132
  • Aug 15, 2012 9:55pm Aug 15, 2012 9:55pm
Quoting Daytrader74

I think it wont be long for me before I graduate to a full time trader after following this forum for the past couple of weeks, where we talk about bulls and bears, portable toilets, taking a dump, trading in the nude, DB's cartoons and all sorts of other stuff that goes on here my education level has significantly increased in such a short time frame... thank you to everyone who has been contributing to this wondrful forum and keep up the great work.

You will either be a full time trader or full time occupying the powder room. Your toilet humor is entertaining.
  • #6,133
  • Aug 15, 2012 10:00pm Aug 15, 2012 10:00pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I thought you were a full time trader, aren't you?
I was, but have been trading only part time for the past 6 month, will be going back to full time trading again in the next couple of weeks
  • #6,134
  • Aug 15, 2012 10:01pm Aug 15, 2012 10:01pm
Quoting flipnfaith
You will either be a full time trader or full time occupying the powder room. Your toilet humor is entertaining.
What is the "powder room" ??
  • #6,135
  • Aug 15, 2012 10:02pm Aug 15, 2012 10:02pm
Quoting Daytrader74
What is the "powder room" ??
washroom, or toilet or number 1 or number 2 room
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #6,136
  • Aug 15, 2012 10:04pm Aug 15, 2012 10:04pm
Bullish flag on the 1H?
  • #6,137
  • Aug 15, 2012 10:17pm Aug 15, 2012 10:17pm
i got aud st going to 0482 or 0475.. so we still have a place to hit 0449 or 42.. same plan for me to L above 0437.. and below 49.. if we break 0435/36 i close.. eu 2239 indicated min
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #6,138
  • Aug 15, 2012 10:17pm Aug 15, 2012 10:17pm
Quoting banana
Bullish flag on the 1H?
is that on AU?
  • #6,139
  • Aug 15, 2012 10:17pm Aug 15, 2012 10:17pm
Hmmmmmmm 4hr TL.....Duh which way do we goooooooo? lol
lol dont mind me just having some fun.
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Click to Enlarge Name: au 4hr tl.jpg Size: 118 KB
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Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
  • #6,140
  • Aug 15, 2012 10:18pm Aug 15, 2012 10:18pm
Quoting Daytrader74
What is the "powder room" ??
A power room is a half bath for the guests located at the first floor next to the foyer. Usually, it has a toilet and a lavatory.
daddybearforex. com
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