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AUD/USD

  • #51,501
  • Aug 15, 2012 11:43am Aug 15, 2012 11:43am
Quoting mrbandwidth
hmmmm, me too, but my arachnid sense warns me about 580 before serious drop... beware.
maybe even 618.
just speculating
  • #51,502
  • Aug 15, 2012 4:04pm Aug 15, 2012 4:04pm
I got stopped out of my short overnight. I'm waiting for a break either way. The fact that price didn't get down to 1.0445 seems bullish to me. I'll wait and see.
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #51,503
  • Aug 15, 2012 4:35pm Aug 15, 2012 4:35pm
Very interesting. On 1H I could go short anytime -- S/R, BRN, TL, and EMA200. (and the last candle closed below 1.05).

But on Weekly, the uptrend is pretty intact (need to close below 1.05 by this weekend for a major drop). Or it might reach 1.07???

I'll hold a little longer. We'll see...
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  • #51,504
  • Aug 15, 2012 4:40pm Aug 15, 2012 4:40pm
Quoting Forexgogo
Very interesting. On 1H I could go short anytime -- S/R, BRN, TL, and EMA200. (and the last candle closed below 1.05).

But on Weekly, the uptrend is pretty intact (need to close below 1.05 by this weekend for a major drop). Or it might reach 1.07???

I'll hold a little longer. We'll see...
Unless I see a big juicy Pinbar over 1.05 or EMA200
  • #51,505
  • Aug 15, 2012 7:31pm Aug 15, 2012 7:31pm
I've gone long at 1.0504. First TP 1.053
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #51,506
  • Aug 15, 2012 10:57pm Aug 15, 2012 10:57pm
Out of my long and now short, looking for 1.0445. The long was fairly speculative.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #51,507
  • Aug 16, 2012 1:27am Aug 16, 2012 1:27am
Good Morning/Evening all,

here is what I am watching tonight. I am short right now on /6A at sell limit filled while asleep @ -3c 1.0482 (1.0508 aud/usd) so i am happy about that going into NY open.

I am conflicted at the moment on the direction of this pair as I notice one argument for Bulls and Bears.

Bears- Week To Date he are experiencing LL's LH'S which is great as we could be seeing de-leveraging from bigger players and then the purge

Bulls- What looks like is forming is a Inverted H&S on the WEEKLY that we could see an explosion to the upside once Fed Manufacturing comes out 10am EST.

Here is the chart below. I am curious what some our your guy's thoughts are on the weekly chart and where you see us headed??

I now have a target on this new short 1.030 but we will see If Manufacturing brings about the same reaction as CPI did yesterday morning on this Pair.


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  • #51,508
  • Aug 16, 2012 1:29am Aug 16, 2012 1:29am
1.0430*
  • #51,509
  • Edited 2:02am Aug 16, 2012 1:35am | Edited 2:02am
Quoting jplazard
1.0430*
JP, I'm a bit like you. I'm short but have a pending long. It could go either way. I'm not sensing a lot of weakness.I'd feel a lot more confident if 1.04445 were tested, to get it out of the way, so to speak. It's making LH, LL after all. A long boring day it's been.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #51,510
  • Aug 16, 2012 1:52am Aug 16, 2012 1:52am
I agree with you it would make me more confident that we hit the lower channel of this consolidation range as well. From there it's anyone's guess if we break through and test the next upper trend line support near 1.0325 or if we trade back up to the higher channel. That is not in consideration at the moment I just need to see dollar break through 83 with some force tomorrow/Friday and Aud test this lower channel for me to feel more comfortable on shorting this pair with bigger size.
  • #51,511
  • Aug 16, 2012 2:15am Aug 16, 2012 2:15am
G/A about to fall over
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #51,512
  • Aug 16, 2012 2:25am Aug 16, 2012 2:25am
I saw that also, looks like a stop hunt. I am so frustrated with that pair because this looks so extreme on the upper channel and I kept getting chopped out last night only to see the hourly end with a wick lol.. Now this happens and I am on the sidelines. I will be watching this closely come NY open to position shorts for 1.5585
  • #51,513
  • Aug 16, 2012 3:31am Aug 16, 2012 3:31am
Midnight food for thought: Dollar Perspective

Below is a chart I have been watching for some time and we just kissed 78.6% ABC extension. Also take a look at RSI we are almost overextended for a possible trade lower. However we have broken and closed above this downtrend since the top @ 84.245.

So what does this all mean and why should you care? I know everyone and their mom always stresses this is the fed meeting where the market will decide a direction finally or this is the econ number that will decide the market and after all the hype we fizzle. But I have to say we are at a critical juncture on this chart and for the low volatility that the only important econ numbers people should look at carefully are the following. The rest of the reports coming out between here and Sept 1 is just a day trade noise play:

Fed Manufacturing (today)
FOMC minutes (AUG 22)
CNY Manufacturing flash PMI (Aug 22)
German Manufacturing PMI (AUG 23)
US prelim GDP (AUG 29)
All leading to the much anticipated will they won’t they Jackson hole symposium (SEP 1)


If we can get through all these walls of data with slightly less than or meeting expectations (Except China) than come SEP 1 when the first sentence reads from Ben 'We are monitoring the situation closely and we have tools if needed' you will see me sell AUD with Size buying dollar and riding all September



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  • #51,514
  • Aug 16, 2012 3:47am Aug 16, 2012 3:47am
Bogus,

Per my chart above It looks like that Inverse look's more likely and Dollar looks like a short here. I set my stop at BE so If this short does not work out At least I will capture the move today on the dollar short. Best of luck to you today and others.

Side note: I think I need to start a journal looking at the AUD/USD post's I believe either a lot of people left or I just post too much (might be the latter ) sorry all I will cut back as I know some of my post cover other insturments that might not be of interest.
  • #51,515
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:40am Aug 16, 2012 4:40am
Quoting jplazard
Bogus,

Per my chart above It looks like that Inverse look's more likely and Dollar looks like a short here. I set my stop at BE so If this short does not work out At least I will capture the move today on the dollar short. Best of luck to you today and others.

Side note: I think I need to start a journal looking at the AUD/USD post's I believe either a lot of people left or I just post too much (might be the latter ) sorry all I will back as I know some of my post cover other insturments that might not be of interest.
Keep it up JP. It's good stuff. I'm out of a/u. Had a bad day on it. I've managed to recoup on e/a and e/u shorts. Not a great day, but that just means tomorrow should be a good one
Good trading all.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #51,516
  • Aug 16, 2012 7:37am Aug 16, 2012 7:37am
Bogus,

Thank you for the encouragement and I enjoy your analysis as well.

Lol just like yesterday morning I am switching long. Looking at the Dollar chart posted earlier we are going down dollar long everything else.

I increased my dollar short for today and have closed my Short /6A at current levels. The inverted HS looks like its about ready to take off to the upside.

Long AUD/USD 1.0465 Target pending I really am looking at the Dollar as a target on this new Aud Long.

Not today bears we have been denied again...
  • #51,517
  • Edited 7:54am Aug 16, 2012 7:53am | Edited 7:54am
Dude above my post.. (jplazrd) You have a lot of experience with this pair. I enjoy your views on it. It looks like it doesn't want to break up past.105000. If it does will it go up hard or drop hard?
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #51,518
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:03am Aug 16, 2012 8:03am
PairMeUp,

Thank you and I look forwarded to future discussion with you on this instrument. I only specialize in one currency at a time and the Dollar. I like AUD because it mirrors ES closely and it is a risk on currency where dollar is a risk off 9/10 times.

Wait till the open because you will see floor traders (I know a dead breed) orders come through plus a flood or orders coming in NY open in a bit here.

My whole premise for the switch (which I hate scrambling last minute before an open) is that I noticed we are in a Weekly inverted HS it looks like and it wants to complete. And the Dollar chart really say's it all RSI extreme oversold, Kissing 88.6% EXtension, and now EUR, GBP exploded we will see what occurs on the Open though.

If Manufacturing comes in worse than expected than dollar will be heavily offered sending it back down to the 82.20-30 area. Making AUD more attractive at least for today on the carry trade.
  • #51,519
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:09am Aug 16, 2012 8:09am
As for pricing I am still waiting on a B wave intra day retrace on the upside If i had to guess based off of level extensions and pure S/R here is where I am looking on the upside and the downside potential if we do sell off.

I am really watching dollar though for more confirmation on a AUD/USD level as new support former resistance level 82.60 is holding at the moment. Once that goes AUD will be trading at higher levels.

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  • #51,520
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:12am Aug 16, 2012 8:12am
Quoting jplazard
PairMeUp,

Thank you and I look forwarded to future discussion with you on this instrument. I only specialize in one currency at a time and the Dollar. I like AUD because it mirrors ES closely and it is a risk on currency where dollar is a risk off 9/10 times.

Wait till the open because you will see floor traders (I know a dead breed) orders come through plus a flood or orders coming in NY open in a bit here.

My whole premise for the switch (which I hate scrambling last minute before an open) is that I noticed we are in a Weekly inverted HS...

I like your analyis. But I have a question regarding risk off/risk on detemination. How does one determine if it is going to be risk on/off day ? Do you use a specific method to arrive at that conclusion and then trade the AUD/USD accordingly?

I think it is time 1.0500 give up the upside as it has been tested way too many times on intraday basis (granted never a decisive close above it though) and those bounces off that level are getting smaller and smaller ...soon enough it won't have enough energy to keep those raging bulls away .. just my 2 cents
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