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  • #5,821
  • Aug 14, 2012 10:58am Aug 14, 2012 10:58am
Quoting supertubes
I am flat on this pair.. Have one long on geppy at 123.30 from this morning
The next time this pair goes back to .0.95-0.96, i will never let go too early again! lol, this carry trade hold for 1 year is about 200-300 pips gain.

Aud is more then likely to be above 1.00 for most times. too expensive to keep shorting it, the big players want us to think to short it, and they will continue to only push it higher.

on 4 hour previous PA 1.0478 area is still valid and strong. More ranging to expect from this pair until a clear breakout from 1.0610 or 1.0435.

I think most pairs will be gaining for the next few days, USD is really weak now, due to the fact stocks are gaining new high and ignored risks. Indices still hopes on QE, more on robots doing/big movers.


If anyone had noticed! The bounce from support is really fast compared to the selling momentum, the bigger TF still says up. So short in 1.05-1.057, do short with care .
Long scalps from support area is recommendable.

1.0650 is my next likely entry for this shorting. Not to forget that each wednesday is x3 negative swaps about 45$ for 1 lot, thats 4-5 pips.
  • #5,822
  • Edited 11:22am Aug 14, 2012 10:59am | Edited 11:22am
What happened this morning was the reflection issue.

Most bears saw a reflection of themselves. Although a bear, I saw a bull in the mirror. After numerous failures before, I have learned when to see a reversed reflection and when not to because the Forex market is as irrational as anyone can image.

Attention: DaddyBear's cartoons are not indicators, please do not apply them to your charts because they won't fit anyway.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1343389098
daddybearforex. com
  • #5,823
  • Aug 14, 2012 10:59am Aug 14, 2012 10:59am
Quoting iceboy
and they have it
Don't worry , we will find adhesive tape.
  • #5,824
  • Aug 14, 2012 11:05am Aug 14, 2012 11:05am
Quoting 5percent
The next time this pair goes back to .0.95-0.96, i will never let go too early again! lol, this carry trade hold for 1 year is about 200-300 pips gain.

Aud is more then likely to be above 1.00 for most times. too expensive to keep shorting it, the big players want us to think to short it, and they will continue to only push it higher.

on 4 hour previous PA 1.0478 area is still valid and strong. More ranging to expect from this pair until a clear breakout from 1.0610 or 1.0435.

I think most pairs will be gaining for the next few days, USD...
As a LT Aussie bull, I've closed out all my Aussie longs taken after 1.02 level because I see dumb money entering the AUD.

If I was a big boy, I would want to wait for more dumb money to enter before I kill their longs and add on more AUD long position but I'm no big boy.

Word around where I am is that the rich folks who dabble in investments as a hobby are telling their MM or PMs to buy AUD which is a huge indicator to me that uninformed people are catching on.

But other than that I'm still in my longs from 96 and have been scaling in nonstop til we have hit 1.06 and got rejected.
  • #5,825
  • Aug 14, 2012 11:07am Aug 14, 2012 11:07am
Down again frome here.
  • #5,826
  • Aug 14, 2012 11:09am Aug 14, 2012 11:09am
Quoting 5percent
The next time this pair goes back to .0.95-0.96, i will never let go too early again! lol, this carry trade hold for 1 year is about 200-300 pips gain.

Aud is more then likely to be above 1.00 for most times. too expensive to keep shorting it, the big players want us to think to short it, and they will continue to only push it higher.

on 4 hour previous PA 1.0478 area is still valid and strong. More ranging to expect from this pair until a clear breakout from 1.0610 or 1.0435.


do you think 1.0478 is still plausible?
  • #5,827
  • Aug 14, 2012 11:21am Aug 14, 2012 11:21am
http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4066/4...e3a59c00de.jpg

I feel a strong wind a blowing. This little bear is going for a ride.
  • #5,828
  • Aug 14, 2012 11:29am Aug 14, 2012 11:29am
I have come to know this fact that people including myself always keep their own views regardless of what happens. This is how the Forex market works. Whenever there is a seller, there is always a buyer to make a deal. This is the reason why the Aussie has very high liquidity.
daddybearforex. com
  • #5,829
  • Aug 14, 2012 11:32am Aug 14, 2012 11:32am
Quoting DaddyBear
Flat? Do you need free air to inflate you?

I don't want to be blown up DB I need battery recharge not free air ;p
  • #5,830
  • Aug 14, 2012 11:47am Aug 14, 2012 11:47am
Quoting NewbTrader7
do you think 1.0478 is still plausible?
I am no god. But what i can say is breaking 1.0495 did helped to make many minor resistance. However the bounce from 80 is valid and these aus bids are crazy believe me. Most aud retail trades had short from 1.03-1.04 area before it charge to 1.06 . Brokers mm and big boys will want these account to be blown or under water. Negative swaps is a killer here. Many central banks also buy in aud for reserves and Carry trade. If aud can hold below daily high 10545 area. Will mean more probability for other numbers in 1.04 . U may want to find that out during tonight closing and tmr Asia play out. 1.0450 is another area to note. always take partial profits given chance. 1.0482 was a good position to scale out short from 1.06-1.058about 100 pip .

The support area is likely to be tested again tmr during asia's hour if u missed your profit taking chance, 1.0480 area, if tonight it hang above 1.0500 and below 1.0520 for closing. i will look for hedge long tmr asia's hour if support at 1.0480 is still valid.
  • #5,831
  • Aug 14, 2012 11:51am Aug 14, 2012 11:51am
Quoting supertubes
I don't want to be blown up DB I need battery recharge not free air ;p
Are you a robot?
daddybearforex. com
  • #5,832
  • Aug 14, 2012 11:57am Aug 14, 2012 11:57am
Quoting 5percent
I am no god. But what i can say is breaking 1.0495 did helped to make many minor resistance. However the bounce from 80 is valid and these aus bids are crazy believe me. Most aud retail trades had short from 1.03-1.04 area before it charge to 1.06 . Brokers mm and big boys will want these account to be blown or under water. Negative swaps is a killer here. Many central banks also buy in aud for reserves and Carry trade. If aud can hold below daily high 10545 area. Will mean more probability for other numbers in 1.04 . U may want to find that out...
thank you. I'm still in the green but would like to capture more if possible. Taking half off like you said and putting my stop loss @ B/E. I appreciate your help
  • #5,833
  • Aug 14, 2012 11:57am Aug 14, 2012 11:57am
Quoting DaddyBear
Are you a robot?
No but I run on batteries :
  • #5,834
  • Aug 14, 2012 12:05pm Aug 14, 2012 12:05pm
Quoting gnomoneey
a close on this current h4 candle above the daily S1 is a buy singal for me...
a close below is a further short to 1.0440 red zone area.
this is my plan for this pair this week....
thanks,
G
I guess the plan now is short au
1- closed below daily pivot 1.0526
2-next stop now is 1.0440
3-then next is bottom tl support around 1.0350
4- if this continue down its the beginning of dt


short 1.0496 tp 1.0440 and other half 1.0350 sl 1.0530
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #5,835
  • Aug 14, 2012 12:08pm Aug 14, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting Davit
got 3 shorts 52 516 508
TP 50 for all 3 (possible pips 42)
I expect a retraction
added 53 short as well.
All TP at 50 All hit
+85pips
My congrats to all Bears
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5,836
  • Aug 14, 2012 12:11pm Aug 14, 2012 12:11pm
placed short at 1.0496
TP is to be decided

just closed my short +6pips I have to wait and see where this is going.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5,837
  • Aug 14, 2012 12:17pm Aug 14, 2012 12:17pm
i don't see where you guys are getting 40-46 from, mind elaborating....?
  • #5,838
  • Aug 14, 2012 12:21pm Aug 14, 2012 12:21pm
The bulls have turned to frogs. Bullfrogs.
  • #5,839
  • Aug 14, 2012 12:22pm Aug 14, 2012 12:22pm
Quoting Davit
added 53 short as well.
All TP at 50 All hit
+85pips
My congrats to all Bears
congratsdavit
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #5,840
  • Aug 14, 2012 12:26pm Aug 14, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting gnomoneey
congratsdavit
Thank you bro.It was a weird day. German numbers were released all negative and PA kept claiming.
Finally US numbers did it.Camels back is not broken yet.I am very cautious to short below 50 not until this level is broken convincingly.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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