AUD/USD

AUD/USD stalls recent gains as the US dollar mounts a counter attack toward the end of the week ending in a doji pattern forming on the weekly chart.

http://www.jcls-forex.com/wp-content...Picture-87.png

My Outlook: Although USD strength may be on hold the pair looks to be forming a reversal nevertheless and short AUD/USD looks to be the play this week.

http://www.jcls-forex.com/audusd-outlook-aug-12-aug-18/

That's the idea, down to the bottom of the channel

4 hour looks def. bearish to me

London & NY 'll make the decision ... go to the north or south but i prefer travel to the south at least TP 1.0175

A nice bounce off 1.0535 area. Looking at 1.0438 as the next level past 1.05. Looks like the 4 hour s rolling over.

wink..

Looks like we are heading for a triple test of just under 1.05, might get a small bounce before Frankie?

One more dip to 1.0507 - 1.0485 is likely followed by a grind higher to 1.0546 - 1.0562. After which it can resume its downtrend.

Hello all,

The morning short worked out all though I did cut half at the 0530 target I let the rest ride to 0510 before liquidation the full position.

I agree with a lot of the other people here who believe we are headed to 1.0485 area shortly and that we could possibly see a retest tomorrow to 1.0450.

Today was interesting PA because /ES came back strong after the open to end virtually unchanged. But again overnight just like Sunday evening we are trading higher than the US session so this could be something to watch this week. Also another case for AUD/USD short going further into this week is /ES is experiencing a hanging man so if we should sell off than AUD would follow less though on a % wise basis.

On all the Hourly/90D MA we started this week trading below and are still under all of them so this will put further pressure on the pair.

I like a short here but like some other traders pointed out a short at higher levels of a possible retest looks even more appealing. I am flat at the moment but do have Sell stops at 1.05/1.0508 & Sell Limits 1.0525/1.0535...

Stops: (1.05-08) @ 1.0535 1.0525-35 @ 1.0560
Target: 1.0470 mid to 1.0445 full

Nice analysis and well explained. Lets see what London brings.

Filled on the SL: 0525 and 0535. Some food for thought as I go over my positions right now.

I am always wrong when placing a trade and I continue to be wrong even though the trade goes my way until I am validated when my target is hit. So on that premise I always look at the other side and run 100's of scenarios of what could go wrong or what I need to be watching and this basic chart is one I came across.


- Before a trend changes their is a purge in the charts or a final exhaustive buying/selling point. This is true of any market whether your trading grains, credit, or in this case currencies.

-A trend change can only be validated if you have another market where correlation is highly inverse and it confirms the new move also.

I refer to the chart below EUR/AUD & AUD/USD as this market is always profitable for those going long one pair against another long dating back to 2003. As you see we are not near a MAJOR trend change on AUD but if we continue to see a bigger scale out of short positions on EUR/USD you will see us trading at 1.26 and the flows between EUR/AUD will be positive causing pressure on the main AUD/USD pair.

Technically it's very likely we will try to gun for 1.06 again later this month and we are in a range traders paradise at the moment(8/3-present) But those who are longer term traders like myself capturing several cent moves keep an eye on EUR/AUD because if we trade above 1.19 then AUD shift will be imminent.

Hi,buddy..how is your trade..i hope ok....

Bogus,

Thank you we will see how it plays out as everyone knows it all sounds good on paper but expectations and reality are rarely in line when it comes to people's perceptions. I have been long /ES and /6E for the last couple days in case this does not materialize and we test 1.06 again.

What are your thoughts on this pair are you long/short at the moment? and do you hold intra day or more longer term?

I trade intra day.I've been long and short. I'm short but not as confident as I was . I almost got stopped out. I see the trend as down, but this pair is pretty strong at the moment.

my chart says 1.0445 area. first it has to take down 1.0487 after crossing 1.0495

1.0495 is still the barrier to down.

My plans similiar. i have shorts from 1.06** area, seeing demand on 1.0495-1.0510, i build longs on 1.0500 stop at 1.0487, just in case, this ride up back to 1.06.

once 1.0495 is clearly taken out, trail to 1.0535.

The market movement on aud since last week pissed me off, because shorts is expensive to HOLD, i don't LIKE SUch slow bears.

Chart of Dollar index and levels I am watching into Retail data. It is difficult sometimes which side the institutional is going to take on dollar as the argument below states the positioning:


A. Go short dollar= ‘ Ben has to consider QE3 on this much worse than expected number go short dollar’


B. Go Long Dollar= ‘Flight to safety and sell risk assets like commodities, Indexes on unchanged/slightly worse than Exp numbers


C. Go Long Dollar= ‘Number better than Exp QE3 still not on the forefront to devalue dollar’


I try not to think to critically about all of this (confusing sometimes on logic) and just trade the chart switching positions when the market has changed direction but we will see what Retail brings.

Still short AUD/USD and will get out before SL if we break 82 otherwise I like the setup right now. Long EUR at lower levels (target 1.26) and will add if numbers are worse than expected once the dust settles from the B/S

So far so good..

AUD futures just broke Tick Weekly.

. I am liking the trading on AUD don't know if we break the R:0495 that has been so stubborn today but we will see what Closing brings. Either way each day we stay at or around these levels it adds more pressure on Bulls holding 1.05

This pair is effected to the others..i really pay more attention at this pair, stay focus, i don't take any action to the other major pairs yet, before they stay at the same point, AUD/USD and USD/CAD is my trade control now, beside that i keep watching the funda from China because of their action last year :nerd:

look at EUR/AUD or GBP/AUD also.. Trade with your own risk this is only my idea

All bear at the moment. at least till 1.0440 but probably it won't stop there.