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AUD/USD

  • #51,401
  • Aug 9, 2012 8:44am Aug 9, 2012 8:44am
Dollar new Weekly high is putting pressure on /ES /CL and /AU. If we can close at the current levels (82.76)
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83 can very well be in the sights by Friday. Better Trade number statistically better on GDP could put a damper on the QE talk for September but this is just one data point.


AUD/USD is defending 1.0560 pretty well these last couple hours we will see what the NY close brings for further pressure to 1.0540 level or 1.06 my take with dollar PA action today we could see south movement.
  • #51,402
  • Aug 9, 2012 9:37pm Aug 9, 2012 9:37pm
I've taken a short at 1.0563, very speculative. I'm either going to get stopped out or have gotten in at the top. Very few trades on this pair this week.
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #51,403
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:02pm Aug 9, 2012 10:02pm
It just a feeling ... time to go SHORT
  • #51,404
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:03pm Aug 9, 2012 10:03pm
She's moving in the right direction. Just that pesky 1.0526 to get through.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #51,405
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:19pm Aug 9, 2012 10:19pm
Quoting maraghi
It just a feeling ... time to go SHORT
I took the correlation...hopefully it's working today in their market
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It's Designed and Balance
  • #51,406
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:21pm Aug 9, 2012 10:21pm
Quoting maraghi
It just a feeling ... time to go SHORT
Could be an ugly day for our aussie gal
  • #51,407
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:30pm Aug 9, 2012 10:30pm
Quoting qqsamudra
I took the correlation...hopefully it's working today in their market
Could be a double bottom at 1.16 on e/a. I'll stay out of it.
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #51,408
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:30pm Aug 9, 2012 10:30pm
Aussie plummets to test old resistance now at 0520 area, will she break or hold..............

Hmmmm..
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #51,409
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:31pm Aug 9, 2012 10:31pm
waiting for it to pause at 1.05032
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #51,410
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:33pm Aug 9, 2012 10:33pm
I got enough space ..i can close it manually or let it go..
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It's Designed and Balance
  • #51,411
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:39pm Aug 9, 2012 10:39pm
She's holding so far.... May be a risky (but potentially great and low risk high reward) buy, don't like shorting this pair at all though as I always hold it overnightS
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #51,412
  • Aug 10, 2012 4:30am Aug 10, 2012 4:30am
Good morning all. I promised not to trade until the open of next week but (/6A) AUD/USD has a wonderful short setup that occurred overnight not to mention the continued backing of easing growth in China we now have a new element. RBA- Talking down AUD and that they are monitoring the price as the A$ could pose issues going forward.

Technicals:


Fib Extension for reversal was touched this week (1.0611) and we are now heading towards 78.6 retrace.


S&P crossed 1400 this week (Tuesday/Thursday) hitting both times 7.86% retrace for what looks like a weekly double top


Like I spoke about yesterday morning on Dollar correlation is low at the moment for $A but If we reach 83 on the Index this will put pressure on Commodities sending risk currencies lower (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post5916888)




Fundamentals:


RBA addressed the current high currency and looks to be talking it down which they mentioned could pose issues down the road


China July Exports rise 1% vs. estimate 8% (http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012...-exports-tank/)


Per the screen below we could see a potential to test 1.0445 by the EOD on AUD/USD. I have shorted at levels for the last couple hours on (/6A) -5 basis: 1.0523. This is a probe short as I am sure like the last few days NY will try to open Bid (Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday) only to come off at EOD. I am ready for this and even hope that this occurs because I have more sell limits in AUD/USD terms sitting at 1.0535/45. Stop loss on current short at 1.0560

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  • #51,413
  • Aug 10, 2012 4:46pm Aug 10, 2012 4:46pm
Hey there,

Here's the latest view from UBS on the markets if you're interested...

D
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  • #51,414
  • Aug 10, 2012 5:25pm Aug 10, 2012 5:25pm
Quoting jplazard
Good morning all. I promised not to trade until the open of next week but (/6A) AUD/USD has a wonderful short setup that occurred overnight not to mention the continued backing of easing growth in China we now have a new element. RBA- Talking down AUD and that they are monitoring the price as the A$ could pose issues going forward.

Technicals:


Fib Extension for reversal was touched this week (1.0611) and we are now heading towards 78.6 retrace.


S&P crossed 1400 this week (Tuesday/Thursday) hitting both times 7.86% retrace for what...
Guess you should have waited to trade next week

it was a good idea but NY decided to go after SL's instead of listening to fundi's also remem that aud gives good interest rates so until those mofo's at RBA act they will keep collecting interest. They never intervened before so a trading plan similar to BOJ can be implemented and look at how long that went for before any interventions.
  • #51,415
  • Aug 10, 2012 5:27pm Aug 10, 2012 5:27pm
Quoting qqsamudra
I got enough space ..i can close it manually or let it go..
Did u set to BE and be's got hit or did you let market take u into negative PL? My shorts were at the same spot as you but I had a sneaky suspicion that NY wouldn't "buy" the selloff and I closed at 530 a little early... I then took a buy at 530 up to 575. Glad I got out of my big short there though... woudl have been a big dissapointment to see 3 lots in the green only to come back up in an hr and half lol
  • #51,416
  • Aug 12, 2012 10:21pm Aug 12, 2012 10:21pm
Considering a short around 1.057
  • #51,417
  • Aug 12, 2012 10:33pm Aug 12, 2012 10:33pm
Quoting GSGill
Considering a short around 1.057
Funny im thinking about a long there
  • #51,418
  • Aug 12, 2012 11:50pm Aug 12, 2012 11:50pm
Quoting sidhujag
Funny im thinking about a long there
Trade what you see , but never trad your think
  • #51,419
  • Aug 12, 2012 11:56pm Aug 12, 2012 11:56pm
Quoting sudathkg
Trade what you see , but never trad your think
Lol I'll see what im thinking when we get there
  • #51,420
  • Aug 12, 2012 11:56pm Aug 12, 2012 11:56pm
Good morning all,

I was stopped out Friday after that pop. Looking at the RSI now it was oversold and I made a big error of breaking my rule of not following all the entry parameters like buy when RSI is way oversold like Friday's chart shows. I am looking now for a setup but for this week I will only get back to trading a 25tick move I need a good week of solid trades in order to feel more confident about the longer term plays. Best to all of you and look forward to some of your guys analysis.
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