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  • #1,481
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:12am Aug 9, 2012 11:12am
Quoting Crassius
I hear Walmart's hiring door greeters. 30 years in the pits and he's broke at 50....
good point
swing it!
  • #1,482
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:13am Aug 9, 2012 11:13am
Quoting MaxDoom
we didn't quite make it up to 1.233x but I grab a short on the way down so all good
you're on fire Max!
Riding those ups & downs like a pro - very nice
swing it!
  • #1,483
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:23am Aug 9, 2012 11:23am
Quoting tomspin
have you seen my post about SP few pages back, do you think it could pose itself for a nice drop and drag our lady down to challenge 1,2000 again?
I made a thousand dollar bet a few days back (bought Put option) that S&P will move down toward that channel low rather than break and get sustained above the year high... but when?

Before we break the EURUSD yearly low to the downside, we need to completely correct the move that put in that low.... at best that's the simple ABC move Max and I are talking about.... we're not even half way through the correction phase, and resumption of the larger downtrend that will eventually see us to 1.2000 if the larger downtrend does in fact continue after this correction.
  • #1,484
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:26am Aug 9, 2012 11:26am
Quoting tomspin
you're on fire Max!
Riding those ups & downs like a pro - very nice

I must admit I have hit everything this week 90% rate small losers and big winners so it doesn't get better.

closed 75% of the EU short now - looking at a long for retrace initially here abouts I think

hope you guys have been on it too
  • #1,485
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:41am Aug 9, 2012 11:41am
Quoting Crassius
I made a thousand dollar bet a few days back (bought Put option) that S&P will move down toward that channel low rather than break and get sustained above the year high... but when?

Before we break the EURUSD yearly low to the downside, we need to completely correct the move that put in that low.... at best that's the simple ABC move Max and I are talking about.... we're not even half way through the correction phase, and resumption of the larger downtrend that will eventually see us to 1.2000 if the larger downtrend does in fact continue after...
I can see you guys see similarities to move from Nov 2011 down to Jan 2012 and then top in the middle of feb 2012 - I can see it now - does make sense.
If you compare two of those moves and plot fibo from nov 2011 correction ended at about 50 level(Feb 2012 high), which in this case would mean we need 26xx(Jun 2012 high) first to run down below 1.2000
Maybe I missed something but this is how I understood your waves

http://s13.postimage.org/hs478yx3b/euro.gif
photo upload
swing it!
  • #1,486
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:50am Aug 9, 2012 11:50am
Quoting gnomoneey
good job fxmindset
Thanks gno
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,487
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:51am Aug 9, 2012 11:51am
would be interested to see the price till D1 TL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 33 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,488
  • Aug 10, 2012 1:21am Aug 10, 2012 1:21am
morning all

EU didn't go anywhere overnight and the Dax gapped down a little.

I'm thinking that we may see that gap closed before any chance of downward movement on the EU

as for the EU I still expect to see 1.221x sometime soon
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,489
  • Aug 10, 2012 2:03am Aug 10, 2012 2:03am
Quoting FXMindset
would be interested to see the price till D1 TL
u can see the nice offer at hourly chart here

Been short @ 1.2286 Stop @ 1.2309 TP : Open
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 30 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,490
  • Aug 10, 2012 2:07am Aug 10, 2012 2:07am
Short EU 1.2288 initial target 1.221x
Short Crude 92.86 initial target 90.5x
  • #1,491
  • Aug 10, 2012 2:30am Aug 10, 2012 2:30am
Quoting FXMindset
u can see the nice offer at hourly chart here

Been short @ 1.2286 Stop @ 1.2309 TP : Open
Stop move @ 1.2303
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,492
  • Aug 10, 2012 2:37am Aug 10, 2012 2:37am
Quoting MaxDoom
Short EU 1.2288 initial target 1.221x
Short Crude 92.86 initial target 90.5x

taken half off EU @ 1.2263 will reload it on a pull back

Crude SL @ BE
EU SL @ BE

Short Aussie @ 1.0514 looking for the stops under 1.0500 rumoured to be very large so expect a battle.
  • #1,493
  • Aug 10, 2012 3:34am Aug 10, 2012 3:34am
We are progressing nicely down our B wave on the daily, which I use for a clue to bias my sentiment for day trading entries. Sometimes I can restrict entries to one side only, sometimes I can adjust position sizes and favor one side only, other days I have to remain neutral and take equally sized positions in either direction.

The S&P, which is my guide to risk appetite, put in an inside day with a candle that signals indecision and may cue a pullback today as traders take some risk off ahead of the weekend after four days up, falling momentum and a thorough testing but continued failure to get well established above the 1400 key figure, from which I am short on a long term trade that could take months to run.

I think S&P is rich at these levels given the slowing global growth story... re-enforced last night by dismal data from China, who has great reason to pad their data, and a governmental system that makes it impossible to really know what the true story is... it could be much much worse than they are letting us know.

However, I think the confluence of the channel top and the yearly high will be a tempting target, and the market will do its best to run up and test that confluence before ultimately failing.

So today I am favoring short day trading entries, but would take a qualified long entry as we may get a dead cat bounce in this area of the 50% Fib, and some minor probing below.

Conditions are August thin and moves can be exaggerated in these thin conditions.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: SP.png Size: 13 KB
  • #1,494
  • Aug 10, 2012 3:50am Aug 10, 2012 3:50am
Quoting MaxDoom
taken half off EU @ 1.2263 will reload it on a pull back

Crude SL @ BE
EU SL @ BE

Short Aussie @ 1.0514 looking for the stops under 1.0500 rumoured to be very large so expect a battle.

reload the half on EU now supply expecting 228x to hold the rate down.

Short Dax 6948 gap is effectively closed now.

short cable 1.5595

AU trade came out @ BE will look to reload at some point
  • #1,495
  • Aug 10, 2012 3:52am Aug 10, 2012 3:52am
Quoting Crassius
We are progressing nicely down our B wave on the daily, which I use for a clue to bias my sentiment for day trading entries. Sometimes I can restrict entries to one side only, sometimes I can adjust position sizes and favor one side only, other days I have to remain neutral and take equally sized positions in either direction.

The S&P, which is my guide to risk appetite, put in an inside day with a candle that signals indecision and may cue a pullback today as traders take some risk off ahead of the weekend after four days up, falling momentum...

good info thanks. Interesting to see if SP does pull back some today.
  • #1,496
  • Aug 10, 2012 4:09am Aug 10, 2012 4:09am
Quoting tomspin
I can see you guys see similarities to move from Nov 2011 down to Jan 2012 and then top in the middle of feb 2012 - I can see it now - does make sense.
If you compare two of those moves and plot fibo from nov 2011 correction ended at about 50 level(Feb 2012 high), which in this case would mean we need 26xx(Jun 2012 high) first to run down below 1.2000
Maybe I missed something but this is how I understood your waves
I think that we struggle to make it past the 1.2500 figure as its a such a strong level. There is scope for more upside, and we'll have a better idea when we see just where and in what manner the Wave B low gets put in.

Also my thinking these days is heavily influenced by a dollar model that is uncanny in its prognostication so far but very very involved to post to this thread. Maybe I'll get bored enough over the weekend to put together a post to explain it.

Briefly, the model predicts one more low in the Dollar index... which should mean a EURUSD high before the dollar shoots up, portending a major move that if realized will be the theme for the rest of this year and next.

Remember Paul Tudor Jones following his 1920's model that correctly predicted the 87 crash? The dollar model is very very much like that, and the move it predicts is of the 87 crash magnitude. May never happen of course, but until that model fails to accurately predict a turn, it bears my attention.
  • #1,497
  • Aug 10, 2012 5:17am Aug 10, 2012 5:17am
Speculation among traders that we will se a Triple R rate cut in the next hour from China following the dismal data over night.

Spikes in equities usually follow such cuts... will be bullish for EURUSD... as it trades same direction as equities.

Such rate cuts usually fall during this hour, so its most likely just an educated guess.... tightening stops if you are short advised.
  • #1,498
  • Aug 10, 2012 5:46am Aug 10, 2012 5:46am
Quoting FXMindset
Stop move @ 1.2303
closed @ 1.2270

The london hourly bar which breakdown still hold as resistance while we have a nice bid in 1.226 area,next would like to see how NewYork playout
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,499
  • Aug 10, 2012 6:02am Aug 10, 2012 6:02am
Quoting FXMindset
closed @ 1.2270

The london hourly bar which breakdown still hold as resistance while we have a nice bid in 1.226 area,next would like to see how NewYork playout
Wise on your part as usual... I'm holding a small short and have tightened into profit hoping NY will sell off at the open based on the dismal China data and take out the low you so astutely mention...
  • #1,500
  • Aug 10, 2012 6:05am Aug 10, 2012 6:05am
Quoting Crassius
Wise on your part as usual... I'm holding a small short and have tightened into profit hoping NY will sell off at the open based on the dismal China data and take out the low you so astutely mention...
Yeap bro...I'm always trade with minimum risk plan possible


amen
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
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