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  • #5,101
  • Aug 9, 2012 6:33pm Aug 9, 2012 6:33pm
Well, 1.064 failed to materialize, my sell stop @ 1.057 got triggered, still holding. Will get the hell out if it breaks yesterday's high (1.0625). Let's see what today brings. Hey DB, I see you are around pretty often, when do you sleep?
  • #5,102
  • Aug 9, 2012 7:06pm Aug 9, 2012 7:06pm
Quoting jeff_b
Well, 1.064 failed to materialize, my sell stop @ 1.057 got triggered, still holding. Will get the hell out if it breaks yesterday's high (1.0625). Let's see what today brings. Hey DB, I see you are around pretty often, when do you sleep?
Most time I sleep in the evening. Now, I am following the Da Vinci sleep schedule.
daddybearforex. com
  • #5,103
  • Aug 9, 2012 7:13pm Aug 9, 2012 7:13pm
Davit had some questions on correlation between AUD & EUR. DaddyBear correctly pointed out that both respond to USD & doblece had some good comments & a link. Some of my thoughts below, sorry for the delay but I’m obviously in different time zone:

Europe situation can obviously effect AUD as AUD traditionally a risk currency. Lately it’s been perceived as more of a safe haven and so has seen rises when EUR dropping. I suspect this is related to the positive swap rate or carry trade. When push comes to shove AUD is still too small to be safe haven and if it comes to the crunch eg imminent risk of Spain or Italy requesting bailout or leaving Euro than AUD will drop. In other cases AUD may rise or fall independent of EUR as AUD closely linked to China or changes may be due to change in RBA rates as these impact the value of the carry trade. Currently we even have the situation that if EUR miraculously recovered (or was given a medium term pace maker) than AUD could see some falls as some that have diversified into AUD might be happy with returns in the EUR eg SNB.

I’d also point out that just because we have seen some gains in EUR doesn’t mean they will continue and that AUD has not had a large drop (200 odd pip) since it’s come up from 1.02, thus I suspect many on here, including myself, are anticipating such a drop before the probability (based on current up trend) of price between 1.06 and 1.08. Whilst much focus should be on price action, support and resistance it pays to have an appreciation of big events coming up such as FOMC meetings or Sept 12 German court ruling on ESM.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #5,104
  • Edited 7:28pm Aug 9, 2012 7:17pm | Edited 7:28pm
Quoting jeff_b
Well, 1.064 failed to materialize, my sell stop @ 1.057 got triggered, still holding. Will get the hell out if it breaks yesterday's high (1.0625). Let's see what today brings. Hey DB, I see you are around pretty often, when do you sleep?
I remember you were questioning "why you guys shorting this pair" last night. Now, you say that you sold at 1.057. Are you one of "you guys"? just curious.

Quoting jeff_b
Honest question: why are you guys shorting this pair when the data came out all green & it broke the raising channel? I see at least 1.064 with a retracement to 1.058 sometime today. I'm on the sideline, the EU fundamentals are not good so I don't want to go long but at the same time, this pair is bullish until 1.08. That's my view, critics welcome.
daddybearforex. com
  • #5,105
  • Aug 9, 2012 7:19pm Aug 9, 2012 7:19pm
Quoting dab
Davit had some questions on correlation between AUD & EUR. DaddyBear correctly pointed out that both respond to USD & doblece had some good comments & a link. Some of my thoughts below, sorry for the delay but I’m obviously in different time zone:

[font=Arial]Europe situation can obviously effect AUD as AUD traditionally a risk currency. Lately it’s been perceived as more of a safe haven and so has seen rises when EUR dropping. I suspect this is related to the positive swap rate or carry trade. When push comes to shove AUD is...
I totally agree. I am expecting the singnificantly drop for AUD/USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
  • #5,106
  • Aug 9, 2012 7:22pm Aug 9, 2012 7:22pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Most time I sleep in the evening. Now, I am following the Da Vinci sleep schedule.
So, you sleep for 15 mins every 4hr candle close?
My Currency is Urgency
  • #5,107
  • Aug 9, 2012 7:25pm Aug 9, 2012 7:25pm
Quoting Pilot Shuke
I totally agree. I am expecting the singnificantly drop for AUD/USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
Welcome Pilot Shuke! I saw your name at the bottom of this page before and was wondering what kind of pilot you are. Anyway, you have landed at our forum. Hope to "see" you often here. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #5,108
  • Aug 9, 2012 7:47pm Aug 9, 2012 7:47pm
I had both limit and stop orders in, I had limit @ 1.062 and if A/U broke 1.062 I will go long, aiming @ 1.064 to 1.07. I had stop orders @ 1.057, if it broke that level then I will go short aiming @ 1.055 to 1.050. I thought that A/U was ranging waiting for E/U news so I enter on breakout of the range, it's that simple. When I asked that question, it looked like A/U was strengthening so I was on the sidelines waiting for confirmation (levels broke or failure to do so).

Quoting DaddyBear
I remember you were questioning "why you guys shorting this pair" last night. Now, you say that you sold at 1.057. Are you one of "you guys"? just curious.
  • #5,109
  • Aug 9, 2012 8:36pm Aug 9, 2012 8:36pm
What happened to the news?
daddybearforex. com
  • #5,110
  • Aug 9, 2012 8:36pm Aug 9, 2012 8:36pm
NEVER fear, I am here..
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #5,111
  • Aug 9, 2012 8:37pm Aug 9, 2012 8:37pm
seems RBA event turns out to be a non-event.
My Currency is Urgency
  • #5,112
  • Aug 9, 2012 8:38pm Aug 9, 2012 8:38pm
1.0560 seems to be the bulls last stand

Just wondering now how long can it hold up as I will turn bearish on a break of this level down to 1.05 possibly by today's end?

That's what I'm seeing at the moment.

Thoughts appreciated guys
  • #5,113
  • Aug 9, 2012 8:42pm Aug 9, 2012 8:42pm
Anyone has the link to RBA statement?
daddybearforex. com
  • #5,114
  • Aug 9, 2012 8:44pm Aug 9, 2012 8:44pm
Try this...


Dane


Quoting DaddyBear
Anyone has the link to RBA statement?
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf RBA Statement on Monetary Policy.pdf   1.8 MB | 338 downloads
  • #5,115
  • Aug 9, 2012 8:45pm Aug 9, 2012 8:45pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Anyone has the link to RBA statement?
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/08/10/rba-monetary-policy-statement/

 

  1. ‘Persistently High’ A$may hurt growth more than in past.
  2. Keeps CPI forecast at 2.5%-3.5% gain in year to June 2013.
  3. Predicts 2012 average growth of 3.75%vs. 3% forecast in May.
  4. Sees 2.5 % core inflation in year to Dec.31 vs. 2.25%.
  5. Sees tentative signs housing market is starting to improve.
  6. Forecast core inflation in 2%-3% target range 2013-2014.
  7. Says elevated currency is key part of structural change.
  8. Predicts 2013 average growth of 2.75%-3.25% vs. 3%-3.5%.
  9. Saw inflation near target, near-trend growth in July, August.
  10. Says Europe poses biggest downside risk to global economy.
  11. Saw early signs of rate cut effects at July, August meeting.
  12. Says Australia ‘well placed’ to respond to global shocks.
  13. Terms of trade to fall more, staying historically high.

  • #5,116
  • Aug 9, 2012 8:46pm Aug 9, 2012 8:46pm
Quoting dab
Davit had some questions on correlation between AUD & EUR. DaddyBear correctly pointed out that both respond to USD & doblece had some good comments & a link. Some of my thoughts below, sorry for the delay but I’m obviously in different time zone:

[font=Arial]Europe situation can obviously effect AUD as AUD traditionally a risk currency. Lately it’s been perceived as more of a safe haven and so has seen rises when EUR dropping. I suspect this is related to the positive swap rate or carry trade. When push comes to shove AUD is...
Thank you very much!I have read a lot about this pair since I posted.
Its coming together slowly but coming.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5,117
  • Aug 9, 2012 8:48pm Aug 9, 2012 8:48pm
Quoting n00b
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/08/10/rba-monetary-policy-statement/
Dane and n00b, thanks for posting the information. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #5,118
  • Aug 9, 2012 8:48pm Aug 9, 2012 8:48pm
even bearish statements, can't bring this beast down.. you have created a monster!!
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #5,119
  • Aug 9, 2012 8:49pm Aug 9, 2012 8:49pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Dane and n00b, thanks for posting the information. -DB-
The market is confused and indecisive. What is next?
daddybearforex. com
  • #5,120
  • Aug 9, 2012 8:50pm Aug 9, 2012 8:50pm
Quoting n00b
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/08/10/rba-monetary-policy-statement/
[list][*]‘Persistently High’ A$may hurt growth more than in past.[*]Keeps CPI forecast at 2.5%-3.5% gain in year to June 2013.[*]Predicts 2012 average growth of 3.75%vs. 3% forecast in May.[*]Sees 2.5 % core inflation in year to Dec.31 vs. 2.25%.[*]Sees tentative signs housing market is starting to improve.[*]Forecast core inflation in 2%-3% target range 2013-2014.[*]Says elevated currency is key part of structural change.[*]Predicts 2013 average growth of...
If this is the statement for release at 9:30pm there isn't the usual reaction.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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