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  • #5,061
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:34am Aug 9, 2012 10:34am
Quoting DaddyBear
Is this what happening now?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1344479919
I think so, Daddy-0.
I'm putting my money on it at 1.0568.

There has been a lot of bullish numbers this week (no Aussie rate cuts, positive employment numbers in US and Australia, higher than expected Chinese CPI, etc.), yet the pair is staying flat. The S&P is near major resistance as well. This sucker is running out of steam.
  • #5,062
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:37am Aug 9, 2012 10:37am
Quoting Hookem28
I think so, Daddy-0.
I'm putting my money on it at 1.0568.

There has been a lot of bullish numbers this week (no Aussie rate cuts, positive employment numbers in US and Australia, higher than expected Chinese CPI, etc.), yet the pair is staying flat. The S&P is near major resistance as well. This sucker is running out of steam.
But, I am not sure if he is dead.
daddybearforex. com
  • #5,063
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:44am Aug 9, 2012 10:44am
Quoting DaddyBear
I would not spent one minute to figure out whether or not there is a co-relation between these two. All I do is focusing on the Aussie only. They are two animals belonging to different species. You see, the Euro is an animal going to extinct soon but the Aussie is a healthy baby in my opinion.
I understand you in general terms.That is yes Euro is on life support however this could last 2-5yrs or more.
What I am trying to say is could Aud fall on its own weakness instead of what happens to Euro ?
Answer seems obvious "Yes" but then again Euro gaining tags along Aud

Here is my concern
If Euro reaches 1.26 in theory Aud would be in 70's and same time Aud could have no fundamentals to support such move up and only moving up behind the sail of Euro
I know its not logical/Forex is not logical but aren't we anticipating sell when in fact chances of Aud going 60+ is greater.

(I understand I am a rookie just trying to understand so forgive my naivete)
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5,064
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:45am Aug 9, 2012 10:45am
Quoting doblece
1 & 2: YES and NO

YES on small timeframes
NO on the long run

and anyway not for the same amount of pips mostly.

Based on this apparent correlation I had been using EUR/USD to hedge AUD/USD... however I did a thorough backwards check and although there was good sync at times, on other occasions the difference between currency pairs reached almost 2000 pips over time ...

The timeframe which shows the best correlation is M5 (more than 90% usually). Will try to find the website where I checked this and post it later.
Thank you
I have much to learn
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5,065
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:46am Aug 9, 2012 10:46am
Quoting doblece
(...)
The timeframe which shows the best correlation is M5 (more than 90% usually). Will try to find the website where I checked this and post it later.
Here it is:
http://www.forexticket.co.uk/en/tools/01-01-correlation

You can see that the best correlation shows indeed in M5 (over 50 periods) at 93.4% = short-lived, short TF.

When day-trading/scalping I usually watch the three M5 charts together:
EUR/USD, EUR/AUD and AUD/USD, as sometimes the panorama might be clearer on the euro pairs and thus next moves of the Aussie easier to predict.
  • #5,066
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:52am Aug 9, 2012 10:52am
Quoting DaddyBear
But, I am not sure if he is dead.
I'm not totally sure either, but it looks toppish. It seems to have drawn a line in the sand today at 1.0560. The RSI and MACD point downward.
If the Monetary Policy Statement pops it up to the long term trendline around 1.0650 I'll fire another bullet.
  • #5,067
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:54am Aug 9, 2012 10:54am
Quoting salt
People shorting GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD. IMO, short GBP/USD and EUR/USD instead of AUD (Don't follow me). What do you think guys?
We only see Aussie at 1.05 just in case there is another 100 pips drop in EUR tomorrow. AU, GU, EU always go along together most of time.

I prefer to short Aussie before Friday close tomorrow
  • #5,068
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:57am Aug 9, 2012 10:57am
Quoting DaddyBear
Welcome aboard, new comers:
aeternum, FX-Pro, samedi and anyone coming while I was away.

When so many people came at the same time, I have to welcome them all together. Have a nice trading day to all! -DB-

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1342730506
Thank you DB Didn't see this earlier on. Busy trying to earn my money back :/
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #5,069
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:03am Aug 9, 2012 11:03am
Quoting 5percent
hey mate fellow sg, a trader must learn 2 very basic thing in Forex first. Mastering this 2 important skills only then u can start walking, running before flying.

1) Money Management: A proper money management will see your account grow in all kinds of event, money management also teaches you techniques of growing money during temporary DD, how to maximize growth, how to plan strategies A B C to Z to make sure account can survive, can thrive and make money. There are many techniques, some funds that i manage are only through MM, and i...
I have been trying to learn as many things as possible and I'm actually not only doing scalping. I only scalp when I know that the opportunity to win is there. I normally follow a 15 minute time frame with a 4 hour trend level to place my positions. But the recent consolidations with ALL the pairs as well as very odd news (positive news resulted in negative results, vice versa with the currencies). This is turning out to be a scary month indeed.

I am trying to appropriate my risks to about a 3:1 risk ratio but I always end up thinking that "Hey, in the long run this will turn around and there's no need to close my position.". I know its bad to think that way but its just a natural reaction and I end up losing big

I have been trading all 5 days a week and I normally sleep less than 6 hours a day so I could trade all the sessions.

Happy NDP47 to you too Glad LKY is still walking.

Right now I've already lost the psychological feel of losing my money because I've been demo trading for about 4-5 months before this and its just numbers to me. My main problem is my emotional needs which tend to get in the way whenever I realise that my bad trades aren't getting better but I still wish it would have a sudden U-turn so it wouldn't break my margin call. Guess I'll have to improve on this with risk management!
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #5,070
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:09am Aug 9, 2012 11:09am
Hi, because I'm still trying to learn. What do you guys think about this?

Not sure if it will simply bounce off my fibs and just consolidate though. Consolidating is still better than shooting upwards I guess.

Edit: Forgot to mention I also spot a bearish divergence
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 10 August 2012.png Size: 66 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #5,071
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:11am Aug 9, 2012 11:11am
Quoting aeternum
Hi, because I'm still trying to learn. What do you guys think about this?

Not sure if it will simply bounce off my fibs and just consolidate though. Consolidating is still better than shooting upwards I guess.
This was what I posted last night.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1344466940
daddybearforex. com
  • #5,072
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:14am Aug 9, 2012 11:14am
Quoting DaddyBear
This was what I posted last night.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1344466940
Ah sorry was busy trying to get over losing a large sum of money last night. Didn't see the forums :/

Looks like it's gonna go up a bit more to 1.06 before shooting straight down. Nice drawings by the way
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #5,073
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:20am Aug 9, 2012 11:20am
Quoting aeternum
Ah sorry was busy trying to get over losing a large sum of money last night. Didn't see the forums :/

Looks like it's gonna go up a bit more to 1.06 before shooting straight down. Nice drawings by the way
I don't think we can reach 1.06 again either today or tomorrow
  • #5,074
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:25am Aug 9, 2012 11:25am
Quoting aeternum
Ah sorry was busy trying to get over losing a large sum of money last night. Didn't see the forums :/

Looks like it's gonna go up a bit more to 1.06 before shooting straight down. Nice drawings by the way
My system is EOD chart so it did not show last night's PA.
daddybearforex. com
  • #5,075
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:30am Aug 9, 2012 11:30am
Quoting salt
I don't think we can reach 1.06 again either today or tomorrow
positive monetary news will do it.
Last night went even 10.61

I have live short 60/58
limit short at 62 in case of shooting star.May add more shorts after the news.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5,076
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:38am Aug 9, 2012 11:38am
Quoting DaddyBear
My system is EOD chart so it did not show last night's PA.
What's an EOD chart? :/ Still seems viable though even though the PA today was really weird
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #5,077
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:42am Aug 9, 2012 11:42am
Quoting aeternum
What's an EOD chart? :/ Still seems viable though even though the PA today was really weird
EOD = End of Day
daddybearforex. com
  • #5,078
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:53am Aug 9, 2012 11:53am
Quoting DaddyBear
EOD = End of Day
Ah. I foresee a bearish day tomorrow though.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #5,079
  • Aug 9, 2012 12:17pm Aug 9, 2012 12:17pm
Quoting aeternum
Ah. I foresee a bearish day tomorrow though.
Why?
daddybearforex. com
  • #5,080
  • Aug 9, 2012 12:43pm Aug 9, 2012 12:43pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Why?
Just got a feeling..
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
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