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  • #4,961
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:19am Aug 9, 2012 1:19am
If you guys are swing traders and trading for xxx pips.... You can still wait to go short.....
but if you are trading for xx pips then you don't need such a big picture....

i guess most of us are looking for those double (xx) digit pips...

Lets go by what the market says at the moment...

Cheers
FX-Pro
  • #4,962
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:19am Aug 9, 2012 1:19am
Quoting aeternum
I'm 2 weeks in. Really really fresh/

I can see that Aussie is overvalued now.. but judging from China's increasing manufacturing rates.. Not too sure when it will drop.. And even if it does, I guess it'll just shoot right back up!

Yeah I'm aware there are bullear and bearull's, but I guess it depends on the news!

I'm afraid of this pair for now :/
2 weeks in but seems that you've learned a lot already.
I'm not too familiar on how a currency could be categorized as overvalued, so I guess it's a matter of opinion and from which perspective we are looking at it.
Most of major pairs have been giving their middle fingers to the news recently, it's like good news came out they rise, bad news came out they still rise, nothing came out they rise too. I'm not too sure what had caused this phenomenon but I guess it's the hopium of central banks would do something to ease the economy (hell I know nothing).
No one's really sure on when would this pair drop, if we are all sure on when would a pair drops, we'd be millionaires already. But one thing for sure, the bears are trying to take over the stage by now.

In my opinion as for now, I still see the possibilities of this pair going to 1.0650 even 1.0716, but I have some difficulties to believe that it would go to those points without a decent retracement, not sure how much is decent but usually we get around 200 pips of retracement lately.
Nothing goes up/down in a straight line, but time will tell...
  • #4,963
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:20am Aug 9, 2012 1:20am
Quoting irfandbl
what's up bro, 10 more days to go here
haha, same here brother 10 or 11 ...how are you?how is the trade going?
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #4,964
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:22am Aug 9, 2012 1:22am
I guess most shorts from 1.0600-14 should already be locked to BE free trade, in case it bounces.

From my previous chart, we are approaching there soon. Next key area to note is the gear 5 BULL trendline.

60-70 is just a suggested range. However, stoch as reached quite low, may get a decent bounce. We are back at ytd's high zone
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  • #4,965
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:24am Aug 9, 2012 1:24am
Quoting 5percent
I guess most shorts from 1.0600-14 should already be locked to BE free trade, in case it bounces.

From my previous chart, we are approaching there soon. Next key area to note is the gear 5 BULL trendline.

60-70 is just a suggested range.
I have to go out for a while i've set my SL to plus 15 and its trailing see you guys later
  • #4,966
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:24am Aug 9, 2012 1:24am
Quoting KiNgEdwarD
haha, same here brother 10 or 11 ...how are you?how is the trade going?
I'm good, how's yourself bro? My trades are doing OK, not as expected but still better than nothing. How's yours?
  • #4,967
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:26am Aug 9, 2012 1:26am
Quoting irfandbl
2 weeks in but seems that you've learned a lot already.
I'm not too familiar on how a currency could be categorized as overvalued, so I guess it's a matter of opinion and from which perspective we are looking at it.
Most of major pairs have been giving their middle fingers to the news recently, it's like good news came out they rise, bad news came out they still rise, nothing came out they rise too. I'm not too sure what had caused this phenomenon but I guess it's the hopium of central banks would do something to ease the economy (hell I know...
Hmm, I've been studying as much as I can for 4 months but it seems the practical part of it is where everything really kicks in. And frankly I tend not to use most of what I've learned from the past 3 months because its hard to predict anything at all. Most examples that I see are mainly just perfect scenario set ups which sometimes often than not don't apply to what's going on now.

Yes definitely, but I'm not really much of a long-term trader, I enjoy scalping more, so the big trends only affect me occasionally. 1.07 is definitely possible I guess, probably not today. I would love to catch the 200 pip retracement though!
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #4,968
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:33am Aug 9, 2012 1:33am
Quoting aeternum
Hmm, I've been studying as much as I can for 4 months but it seems the practical part of it is where everything really kicks in. And frankly I tend not to use most of what I've learned from the past 3 months because its hard to predict anything at all. Most examples that I see are mainly just perfect scenario set ups which sometimes often than not don't apply to what's going on now.

Yes definitely, but I'm not really much of a long-term trader, I enjoy scalping more, so the big trends only affect me occasionally. 1.07 is definitely possible I...
I don't consider my self as a longterm trader as well, but sometimes looking at the bigger picture helps on seeing things on the smaller one..

How's Singapore buddy? Been really hot and humid lately?
  • #4,969
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:35am Aug 9, 2012 1:35am
Quoting aeternum
I'm 2 weeks in. Really really fresh/

I can see that Aussie is overvalued now.. but judging from China's increasing manufacturing rates.. Not too sure when it will drop.. And even if it does, I guess it'll just shoot right back up!

Yeah I'm aware there are bullear and bearull's, but I guess it depends on the news!

I'm afraid of this pair for now :/
News is really just noise when trading the larger TF's, I posted a chart a few days back showing Daily divergence, the divergence started building from 1.02 level and you can check any chart and any currency pair and you will see that price always returns to the level the divergence started, so from my view point the PA may move higher to 1.07/8/9, but when the move starts it will come back down to at least 1.02, how long it will take who knows and why should we really care, just trade the pair with negative leverage and build on your position. The swap is against the short position but no swap should be greater than the profit.
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #4,970
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:41am Aug 9, 2012 1:41am
Quoting irfandbl
I'm good, how's yourself bro? My trades are doing OK, not as expected but still better than nothing. How's yours?
good too,last two trades successful ,less pips but lot was good,
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #4,971
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:42am Aug 9, 2012 1:42am
Quoting aeternum
Hmm, I've been studying as much as I can for 4 months but it seems the practical part of it is where everything really kicks in. And frankly I tend not to use most of what I've learned from the past 3 months because its hard to predict anything at all. Most examples that I see are mainly just perfect scenario set ups which sometimes often than not don't apply to what's going on now.

Yes definitely, but I'm not really much of a long-term trader, I enjoy scalping more, so the big trends only affect me occasionally. 1.07 is definitely possible I...
one of the easiest and safest way to trade is to trade from level of pricing. Level of pricing is the interested level of bids and offers, it's generally safe and it's easy to lock a BE trade after 1-3 hours, even if not your stop loss will be harder to be hit compared to those middle range of shorts and long.

For example, given today's data, retailers will feel that its time for long price went to 1.0610, but they already missed the boat, then they long from 1.0590 which is not a safe zone as well, this area of long is pretty danger compared to level of price. Before the day even started, some rumors already said that 1.0605/15 is an interested level of offers, u may want to set limits there before the full day get even started.

For example, rumors/order boards claimed bids/support at some zone, u may want to refer to your chart, and draw a horizontal line and ask urself if u want to try a long there, generally u must look at the pair's strength and weakness as well. For EUR it's a weak pair, u may want to plan ur shorts over your long entries.

For AUD while it's on up trend, remember level of 1.0430-50? next yesterday level of 1.0530, these area are level of price that u may want to make an entry that's higher probability.

Given, it's summer, i can tell u that most of the trades are automated and run by robots tbh. Yesterday was the worst day of trading, the range was the most boring. tonight we have us unemployment, it's sentiment trading, QE shit should be over until sep.

For me, i am generally looking for reversal, my reason? look at daily chart given 4 days of weak upside, with many wicks seen, it's suggesting selling to be a safer and higher probability trade to be executed.

Next is my SMA 50 on hour4, once price can touch that level, it's going down.

I don't deny the fact, aud is bullish and have potential to climb higher. But given rational thinking the run from 0.95-0.96, most would already be starting to take profit taking, even those bids level of 1.05 area will be intimidated of their long entries getting crash anytime if reversal comes. Many names are coming into offers from 1.0580-1.0620 and 30.
I will place a safer bet riding with these people since their volume is much bigger than what we retailers can offer.

Bear can be very strong when everything turns shit.

My Resistance for bull is 1.0636, crossing that i will look for 1.07 and plan again.
  • #4,972
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:43am Aug 9, 2012 1:43am
...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,973
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:48am Aug 9, 2012 1:48am
Bulls Sign.... or may be a entrancement...
Attached Image
  • #4,974
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:51am Aug 9, 2012 1:51am
Quoting FX-Pro
Bulls Sign.... or may be a entrancement...
a entrancement?
  • #4,975
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:54am Aug 9, 2012 1:54am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
a entrancement?
My Bad... that's a Retracement
  • #4,976
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:55am Aug 9, 2012 1:55am
http://www.animateit.net/data/media/..._witch_pot.gif

USD is now entranced to strength!
  • #4,977
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:56am Aug 9, 2012 1:56am
Quoting granty
http://www.animateit.net/data/media/..._witch_pot.gif

USD is now entranced to strength!
LOL
  • #4,978
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:57am Aug 9, 2012 1:57am
Quoting 5percent
I guess most shorts from 1.0600-14 should already be locked to BE free trade, in case it bounces.

From my previous chart, we are approaching there soon. Next key area to note is the gear 5 BULL trendline.

60-70 is just a suggested range. However, stoch as reached quite low, may get a decent bounce. We are back at ytd's high zone
only a crack below 1.0560 and crossed 1.0550 today's low. we can see more actions to the down side. Probably towards US session, we may get an answer. Now it should be ranging, 60-90 or even moved back to 1.06

Trading aud/usd long term trading can be quite profitable, if it really moves, its usually 200-300 pips and it moves quite fast in a single direction.

indices dax reached 7000 earlier, good place to short , cac also reached a high level, i am looking at these 2 to short higher if it does bull higher. dax and cac only 1 spread on my broker.
  • #4,979
  • Aug 9, 2012 2:00am Aug 9, 2012 2:00am
Quoting 5percent
only a crack below 1.0560 and crossed 1.0550 today's low. we can see more actions to the down side. Probably towards US session, we may get an answer. Now it should be ranging, 60-90 or even moved back to 1.06

Trading aud/usd long term trading can be quite profitable, if it really moves, its usually 200-300 pips and it moves quite fast in a single direction.

indices dax reached 7000 earlier, good place to short , cac also reached a high level, i am looking at these 2 to short higher if it does bull higher. dax and cac only 1 spread on my broker....
I think the scenario of Aussie is now changed since it became another safe heaven?
  • #4,980
  • Aug 9, 2012 2:13am Aug 9, 2012 2:13am
Quoting irfandbl
I don't consider my self as a longterm trader as well, but sometimes looking at the bigger picture helps on seeing things on the smaller one..

How's Singapore buddy? Been really hot and humid lately?
Yeah, I'm trying to swap between charts to catch long term trends or fib levels and apply them to my scalping. Hope it works! I may try a small lot of long term trade in the future when I'm better at this!

Oh Singapore is fine. It's actually our nation's birthday today but market still has to do its business! Much better than the May - June period, definitely. What about you? Where are you from?
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
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