Recent Weeks Pip gains...

Hi

I just wanted to bring up an issue, I've noticed over the last week or so with traders in other forums, increasing their pip targets because over the last few weeks they have made considerably more pips than normal.

For example, I have noticed traders in the 'Monthly pip target' forum, claiming they have made significantly more gains the last few weeks - thinking they have come to a turning point in their trading careers, and now increasing their pip targets as a result.

I really want to hammer home the significane of the last few weeks, and why they have been unique to the average trader, and why they are not 'normal' conditions under any circumstances. Also, why traders should not begin getting complacent because they have recently seen a barrage of extra pips come into their accounts.

Firstly, the last few weeks probably have been one of the easiest few weeks to gain money in an account, in my experience as a trader. If you had a short on USD, you were guarenteed minimum over 500 pips.

I think the traders who have not taken note that the last few weeks have been a UNIQUE event, and no way reflects their trading capability under normal circumstances - should realise this, and reasses what their capabilities really are under normal conditions.

I'm just keeping it real! As I did notice a lot traders stating that their performance has improved over the last few weeks, and for me that is a matter of concern.

Cheers

Rusty!

Strong trends are unique events now?

Well strong trends aren't unique you are right, but statistically they are much rarer, in other markets, somewhere around 75% of price action is ranging, the word on the fx markets is it is closer to 66% (two thirds) of the time a market will be ranging.

So perhaps unique is the wrong word choice by Rusty_forexman, but I understand what he is getting at. To increase your monthly targets based on a strong trending month is not going to be necessarily be realistic in ranging markets.

Yes they are unique....This recent movement, perhaps occurs once evry 12 months. your talking about an in excess of 1000 pips movement on cable and euro.

I define a unique event as something that doesnt happen every other week.

Excellent, excelent post, vital reading to any rookie. understanding the range and current market is a key.

In the last 2 years I have never seen such volatility in the eur/usd cable or the aud/usd. damn they came off hard last year and that eur/usd rally last dec was a interesting one!

Cheers,
Joseph