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  • #4,581
  • Aug 7, 2012 9:05pm Aug 7, 2012 9:05pm
Australia home loans increase most in 2012
From brisbanetimes.com.au
Australian home-loan approvals rose in June by the most this year as buyers responded to the central bank’s 1.25 percentage points of interest-rate cuts since November. The number of loans granted to build or buy houses and apartments gained 1.3 per cent from May, when they fell a revised 0.9 per cent, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 17 economists was for a 2 per cent increase in approvals. Today’s data, a stronger-than-forecast increase in retail sales and an unexpected rise in house prices add to the case for Reserve Bank Governor Glenn ... (full story)

it may add a bit of strength to test the top

this is not a trade recommendation........

cheers
  • #4,582
  • Aug 7, 2012 9:10pm Aug 7, 2012 9:10pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
I'm anticipating price to turn around real quick to make a new low. Though, because it's going to hardly be a new low, it's going to go up afterwards. I've marked when and where with the cross-hairs, but that's only an estimate.

Maybe then I can get my RR.

15M
One tough task in trading the Forex market is to identify if it is a retracement or a reversal. Using the trend line or S/R sometimes actual causes miscalculations. There should be at least two indicators or equivalent information used to determine what it is.

When a trader can see "it is what it is.", he would have an edge over others who cannot see it the way it is.

I'd have reservation as to it's going to go up afterwards based on your analysis. IMHO
daddybearforex. com
  • #4,583
  • Aug 7, 2012 9:19pm Aug 7, 2012 9:19pm
Quoting gnomoneey
long aud/usd 1.0549 tp 1.06 half n rest ride ....retracement done n bull contiuned
long aud/nzd 1.2943 tp 1.2980.... retracement to daily r2

will wait until thursday
The current run-up bull was born to a bear. So, his DNA is a bear not a bull. This is a genealogy issue. I have reservation about your point of retracement done n bull contiuned. IMHOhttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...%20hr%20ago%29
daddybearforex. com
  • #4,584
  • Aug 7, 2012 9:37pm Aug 7, 2012 9:37pm
H4 chart
A bull or a bear will be born?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au h4.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #4,585
  • Aug 7, 2012 9:39pm Aug 7, 2012 9:39pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The current run-up bull was born to a bear. So, his DNA is a bear not a bull. This is a genealogy issue. I have reservation about your point of retracement done n bull contiuned. IMHO
When we see a branch growing off the trunk, nobody would think it is going to be a tree. This is what I said, "It is what it is."

However, in the Forex market, when most people see a run-up, they would think it is a different trend even this "branch" has no root at all. This is what I said "reversed reflection". Seeing a bear and thinking it is a bull. I would call this, "It is not what it is."
daddybearforex. com
  • #4,586
  • Aug 7, 2012 9:40pm Aug 7, 2012 9:40pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The current run-up bull was born to a bear. So, his DNA is a bear not a bull. This is a genealogy issue. I have reservation about your point of retracement done n bull contiuned. IMHOhttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...%20hr%20ago%29
DB

brother sorry im having a hard time understanding your post.

au has been in a bullish trend since 09/2008-
1-0ne of the latest retracement ended 06/2012 and we've been climbing back up since then.
2-the last few days of small retracement from the high of 1.0602 is most likely done imo. and my chart
3-news release today confirming
4 h4 candle ending in 85 min is forming a bullish engulfing candle which if does should bring au to 1.06 imo
5- a close h4 candle above weekly pivot

those are the reasons for my trade
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #4,587
  • Aug 7, 2012 9:42pm Aug 7, 2012 9:42pm
Quoting DaddyBear
One tough task in trading the Forex market is to identify if it is a retracement or a reversal. Using the trend line or S/R sometimes actual causes miscalculations. There should be at least two indicators or equivalent information used to determine what it is.

When a trader can see "it is what it is.", he would have an edge over others who cannot see it the way it is.

I'd have reservation as to it's going to go up afterwards based on your analysis. IMHO
You are right, about the retracement/reversal thing.. Its still in range mode.. unless one or the other happens.. I still have "reservations" over the top side too.. Like I've been saying all along..

But, at the same time.. I don't have an entry to join you guys.. that I feel comfortable with.. I have very precises entrys.

so instead.. I decided to join the Canadians! They had a nice entry for me going long. I upped my lot size.. by a tad, and waving the Canadian flag.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #4,588
  • Aug 7, 2012 9:44pm Aug 7, 2012 9:44pm
Quoting petehnm
how's it going Teddicuss....hey if you don't mind me asking when you say scaling in are you talking about selling on the way up..at least in this instance...

Scaling in, is when a pair is reaching its peak, but the top is hard to determine... (for example the AUDUSD)... you enter with small positions in the correction direction (short AUD/USD)... and scale in with lower leverage all the way up to the top. So if you trade 1 standard lot... scaling in would be buying .1 mini lot, and add to that position if it goes up higher... or if it falls from there, you are in at the top and can add to the position as it it falls.

Used commonly in trading gold... loading up smaller shorts up to the reverse then riding them all down. Its a way to catch tops.

you know this whole situation didn't make sense to me until I recently viewed it from the perspective of the SNB "Buying Baskets of Various Currencies, as the traders sustained the EUR.CHF floor based on their own faith in the SNB" which said it was not without SNB assistance... but apparently it explains the manipulation of the GBPCHF which is pair I've had an eye on for a few months... but now it seems like they started selling and the lack of recent coorelation shown between the AUDUSD to the EUR/USD....

And someone mentioned the swiss was buying aud...

So on top of the temporarily safe haven status it seems to be illustrating... I do believe that the swiss are going ot reverse their position as the AUD economy has unsustainable issues when their currency is so strong. Which means at min rate cuts or ways to bring down their currency = the over valued aspect of the currency slowly goes away... and it seems the bull train is approaching the last hoorah....
  • #4,589
  • Aug 7, 2012 9:46pm Aug 7, 2012 9:46pm
Quoting gnomoneey
DB

brother sorry im having a hard time understanding your post.

au has been in a bullish trend since 09/2008-
1-0ne of the latest retracement ended 06/2012 and we've been climbing back up since then.
2-the last few days of small retracement from the high of 1.0602 is most likely done imo. and my chart
3-news release today confirming
4 h4 candle ending in 85 min is forming a bullish engulfing candle which if does should bring au to 1.06 imo
5- a close h4 candle above weekly pivot

those are the reasons for my trade
I was not saying you're wrong. I just had some reservation about your view. Obviously you have strong reasons to hold on. Below is dobie's chart for your reference. I see what she saw.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1344349733
daddybearforex. com
  • #4,590
  • Aug 7, 2012 9:52pm Aug 7, 2012 9:52pm
Quoting Teddicus
Scaling in, is when a pair is reaching its peak, but the top is hard to determine... (for example the AUDUSD)... you enter with small positions in the correction direction (short AUD/USD)... and scale in with lower leverage all the way up to the top. So if you trade 1 standard lot... scaling in would be buying .1 mini lot, and add to that position if it goes up higher... or if it falls from there, you are in at the top and can add to the position as it it falls.

Used commonly in trading gold... loading up smaller shorts up to the reverse then...

Thanks...very helpful explanation...what's your thought as to 1.0615-25 as the last hoorah...by Thursday
  • #4,591
  • Aug 7, 2012 9:54pm Aug 7, 2012 9:54pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I was not saying you're wrong. I just had some reservation about your view. Obviously you have strong reasons to hold on. Below is dobie's chart for your reference. I see what she saw.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1344349733
db
my chart is so messy now cant post it
i have a channel upward and we reach that and retraced down to this level
but at same time i drew andrews pitchfork and middle line is about where au found support and with current nr it bounced and now forming a bullisg engulfing candle...yes it might negate but with all my confirmation i'm going to take the high probability that we will continue the upswing to 1.06

this chart above is most likely negated by the nr....
but ive been wrong my last two trades and have to hold them ...so i wait and see attitude for now...
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #4,592
  • Aug 7, 2012 9:54pm Aug 7, 2012 9:54pm
Quoting xiaoxin
H4 chart
A bull or a bear will be born?
Attachment
How do you think?
daddybearforex. com
  • #4,593
  • Aug 7, 2012 10:00pm Aug 7, 2012 10:00pm
Quoting gnomoneey
db
my chart is so messy now cant post it
i have a channel upward and we reach that and retraced down to this level
but at same time i drew andrews pitchfork and middle line is about where au found support and with current nr it bounced and now forming a bullisg engulfing candle...yes it might negate but with all my confirmation i'm going to take the high probability that we will continue the upswing to 1.06

this chart above is most likely negated by the nr....
but ive been wrong my last two trades and have to hold them ...so i wait and see attitude...
I am showing one M15 chart FYI. The red line would be a resistance. Your long entry is right below it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10550.JPG Size: 115 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #4,594
  • Aug 7, 2012 10:01pm Aug 7, 2012 10:01pm
Quoting petehnm
Thanks...very helpful explanation...what's your thought as to 1.0615-25 as the last hoorah...by Thursday
Not unless the tomorrow on your calendar looks different from mine:



6:45pmNZD
Employment Change q/q

0.4%0.4%
6:45pmNZD
Unemployment Rate

6.5%6.7%
7:50pmJPY
Core Machinery Orders m/m

11.3%-14.8%
7:50pmJPY
M2 Money Stock y/y

2.3%2.2%
9:30pmAUD
Employment Change

10.3K-27.0K
9:30pmAUD
Unemployment Rate

5.3%5.2%
9:30pmCNY
CPI y/y

6:45pmNZD
Employment Change q/q

0.4%0.4%
6:45pmNZD
Unemployment Rate

6.5%6.7%
7:50pmJPY
Core Machinery Orders m/m

11.3%-14.8%
7:50pmJPY
M2 Money Stock y/y

2.3%2.2%
9:30pmAUD
Employment Change

10.3K-27.0K
9:30pmAUD
Unemployment Rate

5.3%5.2%
9:30pmCNY
CPI y/y



*Full disclose - I am taking my own personal advice.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Fundamentals.jpg Size: 64 KB
  • #4,595
  • Aug 7, 2012 10:01pm Aug 7, 2012 10:01pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I was not saying you're wrong. I just had some reservation about your view. Obviously you have strong reasons to hold on. Below is dobie's chart for your reference. I see what she saw.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1344349733

I see that if my price level is broken, then price could go all the way down to 1.032. This would be below the 161.8 level on the chart, but not by much. Reason: Demand exceeding supply strongly, resulting in a 80 pip move in one hour. That level hasn't been tested yet.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #4,596
  • Aug 7, 2012 10:02pm Aug 7, 2012 10:02pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I am showing one M15 chart FYI. The red line would be a resistance. Your long entry is right below it.
yes ive been entering way early this week...dont really understand myself..
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #4,597
  • Aug 7, 2012 10:04pm Aug 7, 2012 10:04pm
Quoting Teddicus
Not unless the tomorrow on your calendar looks different from mine:



6:45pmNZD
Employment Change q/q

0.4%0.4%
6:45pmNZD
Unemployment Rate

6.5%6.7%
7:50pmJPY
Core Machinery Orders m/m

11.3%-14.8%
7:50pmJPY
M2 Money Stock y/y

2.3%2.2%
9:30pmAUD
Employment Change

10.3K-27.0K
9:30pmAUD
Unemployment Rate

5.3%5.2%
9:30pmCNY
CPI y/y

6:45pmNZD
Employment Change q/q

0.4%0.4%
6:45pmNZD
Unemployment Rate

6.5%6.7%
7:50pmJPY
Core Machinery Orders m/m

11.3%-14.8%
7:50pmJPY
M2 Money Stock y/y

2.3%2.2%
9:30pmAUD
Employment...

lol..no, it's the same ....thanks for the reminder...
  • #4,598
  • Aug 7, 2012 10:08pm Aug 7, 2012 10:08pm
Teddicus (http://www.forexfactory.com/teddicus) - I would like to see the full article you quote from regarding SNB impact on AUD, can you post link?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #4,599
  • Aug 7, 2012 10:09pm Aug 7, 2012 10:09pm
a/u short at 42.. last 1h candle failed to close above the 8ema.. s.l tight just at the high of last candle.. lets see..
  • #4,600
  • Aug 7, 2012 10:10pm Aug 7, 2012 10:10pm
take a small loss when it favors you to do so... if you are long... the probability of a retest of 1.06 is considerably less than the probability of it going down...
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