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  • #1,321
  • Aug 6, 2012 6:51am Aug 6, 2012 6:51am
My have we come a far way so fast....

Usually we look at Ten Year Bond yields as a benchmark... but Draghi has said any operations would be on the short end of the yield curve....

Spain has already financed 70% of its needs for the year... If he short end stays low... manipulated low or otherwise, they can simply finance the rest of the year by selling short dated bonds... This means no pressure on Spain at all.

You almost never see a move in bonds this size.. and this is just today... Friday was also a stunner.

We go higher not lower as this condition prevails.... even though we seem to be at nose bleed heights.
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  • #1,322
  • Aug 6, 2012 6:54am Aug 6, 2012 6:54am
Quoting Crassius
My have we come a far way so fast....

Usually we look at Ten Year Bond yields as a benchmark... but Draghi has said any operations would be on the short end of the yield curve....

Spain has already financed 70% of its needs for the year... If he short end stays low... manipulated low or otherwise, they can simply finance the rest of the year by selling short dated bonds... This means no pressure on Spain at all.

You almost never see a move in bonds this size.. and this is just today... Friday was also a stunner.

We go higher not lower as...
Agree, I just wanted a bit lower to enter in a better place but as your nice pic shows it doesn't matter where.
swing it!
  • #1,323
  • Aug 6, 2012 6:55am Aug 6, 2012 6:55am
Cabel buy
1,5575
Stop about 10 pips
TP1 15700
TP2 15750
swing it!
  • #1,324
  • Aug 6, 2012 7:06am Aug 6, 2012 7:06am
long @ 1.2385 stop 1.2347 risk 1% tP : Open
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,325
  • Aug 6, 2012 7:48am Aug 6, 2012 7:48am
Quoting tomspin
Cabel buy
1,5575
Stop about 10 pips
TP1 15700
TP2 15750
Closed I doesn't feel right, I'd feel better if I enter at 5550 Will try again around 1,5500
swing it!
  • #1,326
  • Aug 6, 2012 8:46am Aug 6, 2012 8:46am
Just bought a March 2013 Put on Spy strike 140 for 9.72... Trades 139.95
  • #1,327
  • Aug 6, 2012 9:31am Aug 6, 2012 9:31am
Quoting FXMindset
long @ 1.2385 stop 1.2347 risk 1% tP : Open
shoot higher better
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,328
  • Edited 9:48am Aug 6, 2012 9:37am | Edited 9:48am
One of my proprietary algorithms measures what can be understood as pressure.... If you have ever played around with a garden hose you know that by increasing the water pressure the water will travel farther...

I am measuring Asian levels of pressure the last two hours.... which should be two very active, high pressure hours....

Conclusion.. although Spanish bond yields preclude much of a sell off..... longer term players will snap up supply at 2350.... we can't develop any momentum upward either. Longs should keep SL tight.

I no longer chart the 6E, so I don't have volume information. I'll be curious to see the EOD volume print on the 6E...must be light.
  • #1,329
  • Aug 6, 2012 9:59am Aug 6, 2012 9:59am
There are some stops up at 2410... maybe we can goose price in the thin conditions and trip them for a nice... if brief pop.
  • #1,330
  • Aug 6, 2012 10:06am Aug 6, 2012 10:06am
I wanted her lower but I bought at 2400 now set at BE + spread
there is a first fence at 2460, I set my TP at 2620
swing it!
  • #1,331
  • Aug 6, 2012 10:15am Aug 6, 2012 10:15am
Quoting tomspin
I wanted her lower but I bought at 2400 now set at BE + spread
there is a first fence at 2460, I set my TP at 2620

I have 2507 as a target for the August move up... against a falling former channel bottom... it will lower each day because the channel is a falling channel....... I'll post a chart in the morning..

That is so close to 2500, might as well call it 2500. 2620 is not even on my radar.

Half will come off at 2460....

The thing that bothers me about these levels is I didn't expect to be here this time of the month..... its way to early.... and being August I expect to get tied up in knots going sideways for a good part of the month... I conclude that it could be two weeks before we see 2500... I have a Dollar Index low predicted August 21 to 24...

I'm trading what's happening, so I'm aboard....but you know me... I'm always thinking of the bigger picture even if I'm not actually trading that time frame... keeps me trading in the right direction.. which is often half the battle.
  • #1,332
  • Aug 6, 2012 10:28am Aug 6, 2012 10:28am
Quoting Crassius
I have 2507 as a target for the August move up... against a falling former channel bottom... it will lower each day because the channel is a falling channel....... I'll post a chart in the morning..

That is so close to 2500, might as well call it 2500. 2620 is not even on my radar.

Half will come off at 2460....

The thing that bothers me about these levels is I didn't expect to be here this time of the month..... its way to early.... and being August I expect to get tied up in knots going sideways for a good part of the month... I conclude...
Sure you do, that's why I value your view so much - 2620 is a H&S mambo jumbo target, 1,2535 will be hard to break but there is risk apetite so will be waching closely those levels. We bounced off 200SMA on H4 and we failed to see bigger leg down, so bulls got it for now. The risk is on and SP going for 1400, bonds droping as you showed,
swing it!
  • #1,333
  • Aug 6, 2012 12:08pm Aug 6, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting FXMindset
long @ 1.2385 stop 1.2347 risk 1% tP : Open
Close 1.2420
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,334
  • Aug 6, 2012 12:45pm Aug 6, 2012 12:45pm
Quoting FXMindset
Close 1.2420
Good Trading http://www.freesmileys.org/emoticons...n-char-017.gif
  • #1,335
  • Aug 6, 2012 12:49pm Aug 6, 2012 12:49pm
mine hit the wall, nothing spectacular today but it's monday so no suprise really. H1 looks like double top - ish.
So maybe 2270 is waiting for tommorow or she will dive more.
swing it!
  • #1,336
  • Aug 6, 2012 12:56pm Aug 6, 2012 12:56pm
Quoting Crassius
Good Trading http://www.freesmileys.org/emoticons...n-char-017.gif
Thanks bro
Just scalp close another short for 13 pips - not bad also as long green - smally compound
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,337
  • Aug 7, 2012 12:25am Aug 7, 2012 12:25am
Short 1.2390 stop 1.2407 risk 1% Tp : Open
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,338
  • Aug 7, 2012 1:09am Aug 7, 2012 1:09am
Elliot wave can seem like magic when it is forming according to the rules... The formations are obvious and like most of TA, when lots of traders see the same picture, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The waves are sometimes confused, invalidating each count as the chart unfolds, and Elliot artists will have several alternate counts, X waves and well.. let's face it... during a complex correction Elliot artists struggle to figure out where we go next because the picture is muddy and no at all clear.

August is always a tough month to trade. If you're French you go on vacation. I expected this wave to be complex for seasonality reasons at least.

The spike high during Draghi's speech into and above 1.2400 invalidated the 1.2390 high as the top of an A wave interior to the Wave 4, so we still need to pull back into a B wave bottom before putting in what will likely be the August high, and Wave 4 top.

I post the 6E contract today so we can look at REAL volume information. It was higher than I expected given the readings on my pressure meter, yet, we put in an indecisive, possibly corrective signaling candle in spite of the fact that Spanish bond yields..... which have been out fundamental driver of late fell impressively continuing slide.

On the chart you will notice I have a predicted US Dollar Index low that comes in at about the right time of the month to give us room to put in a B wave, and move back to 1.2500 to complete the minimum wave 4 requirements. We could likely hit the 38.2% Fib as a top of Wave 4, but I like the confluence of teh old descending channel bottom, 1.2500 Psych level, and the Time axis confluence from the Dollar model. Even higher levels for Wave 4 are possible but not worth considering yet.

If I have time I will post the dollar model chart(s) to explain what I and many others are thinking with that date.
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  • #1,339
  • Edited 1:35am Aug 7, 2012 1:12am | Edited 1:35am
morning,

I am still short from yesterday @ 1.2403 but I have to say that once again it failed to hit the target zone 1.245x to 1.254x for the correction of the 1.274x to 1.204x swing down.

So this give me the same issue as yesterday, correction could be a short one and therefore over, or we may still see a push into the target zone before we figure out the next move.

I favour the short but the PA didn't back that up yesterday so have to be very open minded today not to get trapped by bias.
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  • #1,340
  • Aug 7, 2012 1:42am Aug 7, 2012 1:42am
Quoting Crassius
Elliot wave can seem like magic when it is forming according to the rules... The formations are obvious and like most of TA, when lots of traders see the same picture, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The waves are sometimes confused, invalidating each count as the chart unfolds, and Elliot artists will have several alternate counts, X waves and well.. let's face it... during a complex correction Elliot artists struggle to figure out where we go next because the picture is muddy and no at all clear.

August is always a tough month to trade....
morning Crassius

nice read all makes sense, as you can see from my previous post I am still working on the correction of the lower leg of the trend down which when complete will become the WA for the larger correction that you refer to
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