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  • #1,301
  • Aug 6, 2012 2:39am Aug 6, 2012 2:39am
taken a short here on September Crude

looking for correction towards 85.5x
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  • #1,302
  • Aug 6, 2012 2:47am Aug 6, 2012 2:47am
Good morning

So we failed to see 2460 at least for now, friday gave nice rally I was trying to short it whole day and end up in the red daily result
I would expect buying from 2312 or 2265/70 which is natural price movement between pivots (WmR1 1,2400 - WmS1 1,2265)
Such a move would create another HL on H4 and would suggest further up move up to 2620 which would be a neckline target for that H&S.
We finished second week higher and there is gradual reduction in short sell positions in COT from friday - week by week now.
Is that mean I am bullish? No this mean I will learn so much more about the market thanks to those silly moves. Nothing like hands on experience eh?
Good luck everybody, have a great week

http://s16.postimage.org/pu9w7cyr9/euro.gif
image upload
swing it!
  • #1,303
  • Aug 6, 2012 2:54am Aug 6, 2012 2:54am
Quoting tomspin
Good morning

So we failed to see 2460 at least for now, friday gave nice rally I was trying to short it whole day and end up in the red daily result
I would expect buying from 2312 or 2265/70 which is natural price movement between pivots (WmR1 1,2400 - WmS1 1,2265)
Such a move would create another HL on H4 and would suggest further up move up to 2620 which would be a neckline target for that H&S.
We finished second week higher and there is gradual reduction in short sell positions in COT from friday - week by week now.
Is that mean...
The recent nonsense movements on Eur/USD make me very skeptical of shorting it anymore, neither i like longing eur/usd unless on weekly chart because euro's fundamental and economy's is really horrible. All my shorts are now within 10-15 pips SL at each level and be by 5 pip, i rather get 0 then red, just to prevent myself from drowning in this crazy pair lately. It does not really have any sort of technical analysis to rely on lately, more like speculation bets now on a RR and better price entries.
  • #1,304
  • Aug 6, 2012 2:56am Aug 6, 2012 2:56am
Quoting tomspin
Good morning

So we failed to see 2460 at least for now, friday gave nice rally I was trying to short it whole day and end up in the red daily result
I would expect buying from 2312 or 2265/70 which is natural price movement between pivots (WmR1 1,2400 - WmS1 1,2265)
Such a move would create another HL on H4 and would suggest further up move up to 2620 which would be a neckline target for that H&S.
We finished second week higher and there is gradual reduction in short sell positions in COT from friday - week by week now.
Is that mean...

morning Tom,

nice analysis thanks

I am looking for an initial move down to 1.228x to 1.225x zone with a possible 30-40 pip retrace from around 1.233x on the way. this based on retrace targets for the move up from Thursdays low 1.213x

I shall maintain a short outlook all the time we are below 1.2400

also short aussie and crude.

I won't be around so much for the next couple of weeks as I am packing the house up for a move..

safe trades all.
  • #1,305
  • Aug 6, 2012 3:01am Aug 6, 2012 3:01am
Quoting 5percent
The recent nonsense movements on Eur/USD make me very skeptical of shorting it anymore, neither i like longing eur/usd unless on weekly chart because euro's fundamental and economy's is really horrible. All my shorts are now within 10-15 pips SL at each level and be by 5 pip, i rather get 0 then red, just to prevent myself from drowning in this crazy pair lately. It does not really have any sort of technical analysis to rely on lately, more like speculation bets now on a RR and better price entries.
it does mate, we just fail to see it - I certainly didn't on friday and that's just the way it is if you are not fully focused. There was a beautiful reverse on friday at 1,2170 where that rally started - Crassius called it way before it happened - go back few pages and you will see.
The problem is always entry - If you are in the wrong place your SL will be probably hit by micro pullbacks and if you don't have patience you will reopen more less in the same spot and that's how people burn their accounts and revenge trade.
I do have two spots I'd like to buy if I failed to pick the right one I will try to find a better place but only showed at higher TF.
swing it!
  • #1,306
  • Aug 6, 2012 3:06am Aug 6, 2012 3:06am
Quoting MaxDoom
don't know if any of you do this kind of trading, but a nice opportunity is opening up with todays price action.

You sell the FTSE and buy the Dax in equal finacial amounts.
I use a model that then also adjusts for volatility but not necessary for this trade.

I shall wait for the one of them to start rolling over on say M5 or M15 better to enter.
Quoting MaxDoom
made an entry on these

Short FTSE @ 5640.5
Long Dax @ 6763.5

no stops as they should maintain a natural hedge. I will just keep an eye on it from time to time.....
Thought I would give you an update on this stat arb trade I took last week.

FTSE Short = -91
DAX Long = +114 Total = +23

It still has further to run so I shall not be closing yet.
The market movements at the end of the week was a good test of the natural hedge - I believe it got to about -95 at one point which takes some faith.

edit: that draw down also demonstrates that my entry was a little early
  • #1,307
  • Aug 6, 2012 3:15am Aug 6, 2012 3:15am
Quoting MaxDoom
morning Tom,

nice analysis thanks

I am looking for an initial move down to 1.228x to 1.225x zone with a possible 30-40 pip retrace from around 1.233x on the way. this based on retrace targets for the move up from Thursdays low 1.213x

I shall maintain a short outlook all the time we are below 1.2400

also short aussie and crude.

I won't be around so much for the next couple of weeks as I am packing the house up for a move..

safe trades all.
Morning Max

yes 2233 is a very solid spot as well, this could be a typical monday untill Ben and maybe he will be a market mover for NY session.
Good call on crude, need some relief.
Good luck with packing - always a hassle
take care mate
swing it!
  • #1,308
  • Aug 6, 2012 4:12am Aug 6, 2012 4:12am
Long @ 1.2370 Stop @ 1.2340 Risk 1% TP : Open
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,309
  • Aug 6, 2012 4:34am Aug 6, 2012 4:34am
Quoting MaxDoom
.....I am looking for an initial move down to 1.228x to 1.225x zone with a possible 30-40 pip retrace from around 1.233x on the way. this based on retrace targets for the move up from Thursdays low 1.213x
New short from 1.2374 it bounced nicely from 1.2341 for 37 pips so looking for downward continuence now.
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  • #1,310
  • Aug 6, 2012 4:58am Aug 6, 2012 4:58am
Quoting MaxDoom
New short from 1.2374 it bounced nicely from 1.2341 for 37 pips so looking for downward continuence now.
Good morning
I'm also short @1.2372, lets see if breaks 2338, I think there's a strong support.
Max the chart you attached is 5 min?
  • #1,311
  • Aug 6, 2012 4:59am Aug 6, 2012 4:59am
Quoting FxCba
Good morning
I'm also short @1.2372, lets see if breaks 2338, I think there's a strong support.
Max the chart you attached is 5 min?

yes chap M5 chart
  • #1,312
  • Aug 6, 2012 5:07am Aug 6, 2012 5:07am
Quoting FXMindset
Long @ 1.2370 Stop @ 1.2340 Risk 1% TP : Open
Close 1.2360
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,313
  • Aug 6, 2012 5:10am Aug 6, 2012 5:10am
Quoting FXMindset
Close 1.2360

sensible move I think at the moment
  • #1,314
  • Aug 6, 2012 5:13am Aug 6, 2012 5:13am
Quoting MaxDoom
sensible move I think at the moment
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,315
  • Aug 6, 2012 5:47am Aug 6, 2012 5:47am
closed short +12 pips, I'll wait to finish this 4H candle

take a look weekly charts suggests long if we go up 2393
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  • #1,316
  • Aug 6, 2012 6:22am Aug 6, 2012 6:22am
Quoting FxCba
closed short +12 pips, I'll wait to finish this 4H candle

take a look weekly charts suggests long if we go up 2393
This is a great example how forex is a pure mental challenge and patience tester. If it is your target than fine but if you close it because you thing it will pop up higher (not going lower) than that is a mistake imo.
I would secure trade at BE and walk away as I did. I don't personally think this is a good point to start another leg up - it'd have to be triggered by some unexpected fundie push. Yes weekly is bullish but daily shows very bearish as I see it - that mean uncertainty and more sideways move at least for now.
One of the basic mistakes is to close your winning trade prematurely and not closing your looser fast enough.
Just one of my thoughts - for myself as well.
swing it!
  • #1,317
  • Aug 6, 2012 6:35am Aug 6, 2012 6:35am
Quoting tomspin
This is a great example how forex is a pure mental challenge and patience tester. If it is your target than fine but if you close it because you thing it will pop up higher (not going lower) than that is a mistake imo.
I would secure trade at BE and walk away as I did. I don't personally think this is a good point to start another leg up - it'd have to be triggered by some unexpected fundie push. Yes weekly is bullish but daily shows very bearish as I see it - that mean uncertainty and more sideways move at least for now.
One of the basic mistakes...
Hi Tom

did you get my PM on cable ?

I am wathcing this H1 lower TL carefully

edit: just seen your reply no worries added the daily line to my chart as well - maybe get some trade between the two to give a low risk test of the daily TL
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  • #1,318
  • Aug 6, 2012 6:40am Aug 6, 2012 6:40am
Quoting MaxDoom
Hi Tom

did you get my PM on cable ?

I am wathcing this H1 lower TL carefully

edit: just seen your reply no worries added the daily line to my chart as well - maybe get some trade between the two to give a low risk test of the daily TL
Yes Mate thank you,
I replied few minutes ago - it is hard to see when you getting messages I usually respond after few hours - note to Twee, maybe you guys should do it like a pop up window.

If this candle close in 20 as a nice full body it is a go sign - I may take it
swing it!
  • #1,319
  • Aug 6, 2012 6:42am Aug 6, 2012 6:42am
Quoting tomspin
This is a great example how forex is a pure mental challenge and patience tester. If it is your target than fine but if you close it because you thing it will pop up higher (not going lower) than that is a mistake imo.
I would secure trade at BE and walk away as I did. I don't personally think this is a good point to start another leg up - it'd have to be triggered by some unexpected fundie push. Yes weekly is bullish but daily shows very bearish as I see it - that mean uncertainty and more sideways move at least for now.
One of the basic mistakes...
Yes, you are right, but if there's a down continuation it'll be another spot to enter into, meanwhile I catch some pips.
  • #1,320
  • Aug 6, 2012 6:47am Aug 6, 2012 6:47am
Quoting FxCba
Yes, you are right, but if there's a down continuation it'll be another spot to enter into, meanwhile I catch some pips.
true, some eat with a small spoon and able to finish their lunch as well so nice thinking
I am a bit obsessed with this, you know when you enter a trade and you close it cause you think it goes against you - just to get back and land exatcly at your initial target. These days I'd rather be BE than loose nice swing but that's just me.
swing it!
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