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  • #3,181
  • Aug 1, 2012 8:31pm Aug 1, 2012 8:31pm
Quoting leticus
If we look at a bigger trend perspective (months ), this ceiling of 1.05XX has been here quite a while. The original pricing of AUD is 1.0831 (1st March 2012), something must go back as a retracement especially AUD dollar is now still seems as the more favorable currency and based on energy markets analysis i got from my colleagues at the exchange, they said the world is now very dependable on commodities.

If we talk about Price Action behaviour before NFP, yes i got stopped out once , so i know what is the REAL PURPOSE of a NFP is to give a...
Thanks for the info bro...not saying your right or wrong just saying wow great info to know.... at least now I personally have a view or perspective to compare to what is going on at the moment and to help prepare for NFP...keep'em coming....
  • #3,182
  • Aug 1, 2012 8:33pm Aug 1, 2012 8:33pm
My gut tells me that the ECB would make us go up to the 1.0700 area, but that the NFP would send us back down into the downward cycle.

If my trendline is correct, and I'm sure it probably isn't, then we still have some room to go before we bounce off the UTL.

The question is can the ECB get us there tomorrow for the NFP to bring us back down? All this talk of "setting the stage" sure makes me think we might see it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,183
  • Aug 1, 2012 8:35pm Aug 1, 2012 8:35pm
Quoting Rknigh2
I wouldn't give it that hIgh of a probability and I don't think it's priced into the market yet. Which means the market doesnt expect it or the ECB and US NFP is of far greater concern than any rate cuts. Either way, a rate cut should be good for the "risk on" currencies (probably for a few pips)
  • #3,184
  • Aug 1, 2012 8:37pm Aug 1, 2012 8:37pm
Quoting mattheweston
My gut tells me that the ECB would make us go up to the 1.0700 area, but that the NFP would send us back down into the downward cycle.

If my trendline is correct, and I'm sure it probably isn't, then we still have some room to go before we bounce off the UTL.

The question is can the ECB get us there tomorrow for the NFP to bring us back down? All this talk of "setting the stage" sure makes me think we might see it.
wouldn't that be a wild ride.....
  • #3,185
  • Aug 1, 2012 8:39pm Aug 1, 2012 8:39pm
Quoting mattheweston
My gut tells me that the ECB would make us go up to the 1.0700 area, but that the NFP would send us back down into the downward cycle.

If my trendline is correct, and I'm sure it probably isn't, then we still have some room to go before we bounce off the UTL.

The question is can the ECB get us there tomorrow for the NFP to bring us back down? All this talk of "setting the stage" sure makes me think we might see it.
1.05 is the point !!
A
UD/USD intraday: key ST resistance at 1.05


Pivot: 1.05
Short positions below 1.05 with targets @ 1.042 & 1.038 in extension.
Above 1.05 look for further upside with 1.055 & 1.0625 as targets.
the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
Attached Image
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
  • #3,186
  • Aug 1, 2012 10:06pm Aug 1, 2012 10:06pm
Not sure how accurate this is, but worth a read.
If true how do you think this will impact?
If no definitive confirmation provided, risk off?
(http://www.iii.co.uk/news-opinion/reuters/news/45378)
  • #3,187
  • Aug 1, 2012 10:54pm Aug 1, 2012 10:54pm
Mario will not say nothing today...merkel is behind with a gun in Mario's head...
  • #3,188
  • Aug 1, 2012 10:54pm Aug 1, 2012 10:54pm
Quoting palabara
Lets see if we can figure this out, and maybe get some strategy rolling here. What are long and short on?
Currently I have 2 buys on gold and 1 sell and also 1 sell on aussie
  • #3,189
  • Aug 1, 2012 10:56pm Aug 1, 2012 10:56pm
Quoting petehnm
ouch sorry to hear that bro...I wish I had some words of wisdom to help out...but if you remember just recently I confessed..." Hi I'm Pete and I have a Draw Down problem"....30-40 pips is my limit from here on out...I've always let ride for 90-150 in most cases...granted I've not had to put myself in that situation yet so talk is kinda cheap at the moment...I hope you get out of it bro...
Managed to close out 1 position for a small loss so currently only have 4 open losing positions!!
  • #3,190
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:25pm Aug 1, 2012 11:25pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Currently I have 2 buys on gold and 1 sell and also 1 sell on aussie
do you need your PT back mate?
  • #3,191
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:29pm Aug 1, 2012 11:29pm
in my opinion, it is more logical that today's Super Mario Draghi's speech would shoot this pair to the north while tomorrow's NFP data would bring it back south...

but "technically" speaking they would do the opposite (draghi down, nfp up), what do you guys think?

damn the fundies...
  • #3,192
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:33pm Aug 1, 2012 11:33pm
Quoting irfandbl
do you need your PT back mate?
No need I've already peed myself
  • #3,193
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:34pm Aug 1, 2012 11:34pm
Quoting Daytrader74
No need I've already peed myself
LOL
  • #3,194
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:38pm Aug 1, 2012 11:38pm
Quoting irfandbl
in my opinion, it is more logical that today's Super Mario Draghi's speech would shoot this pair to the north while tomorrow's NFP data would bring it back south...

but "technically" speaking they would do the opposite (draghi down, nfp up), what do you guys think?

damn the fundies...
So many times you see this, I wonder whether we will see the same!
Either way I reckon there's potential for a pullback over the weekend as well as people unwind their longs from the last few weeks/days/hours.
I guess we will see
  • #3,195
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:44pm Aug 1, 2012 11:44pm
Quoting timster
So many times you see this, I wonder whether we will see the same!
Either way I reckon there's potential for a pullback over the weekend as well as people unwind their longs from the last few weeks/days/hours.
I guess we will see


so I guess the Draghi up + NFP down is more likely to cope ay?
  • #3,196
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:49pm Aug 1, 2012 11:49pm
OK megam8, payal, xiaoxin, kl00820, Fortier, vanienin, my friend the "left over curry" supertubes, my nigerian friend desolar, Moova, Njrg2, fxswinger and last but not least the "seasonal theory" chiknthief....I know you're out there watching..

tell us what are your views please
  • #3,197
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:52pm Aug 1, 2012 11:52pm
Quoting irfandbl
OK megam8, payal, xiaoxin, kl00820, Fortier, vanienin, my friend the "left over curry" supertubes, my nigerian friend desolar, Moova, Njrg2, fxswinger and last but not least the "seasonal theory" chiknthief....I know you're out there watching..

tell us what are your views please
I just got up and catching up bear with me
  • #3,198
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:54pm Aug 1, 2012 11:54pm
Quoting supertubes
I just got up and catching up bear with me
don't forget to sip your cup of tea as usual bro
  • #3,199
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:56pm Aug 1, 2012 11:56pm
Quoting irfandbl
don't forget to sip your cup of tea as usual bro
Just got my tea lol
  • #3,200
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:57pm Aug 1, 2012 11:57pm
Quoting supertubes
Just got my tea lol

and im still looking at 10472 ish
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