Euro/Dollar

Good day to you, Max

Apology - was out for most of the morning. Hope you are doing fine.

Regards

The buying just keeps coming,from a tech point of view
2390 is starting to look very possible.

1.25

taken a short @ 1.0528 SL 1.0551 intial target 1.048x

From a TA point of view it would be stupid to bid this market up past 2330 until we have more clarity....

But, I will not be surprised if the Hopium smokers bid us up to 2385 between now and the time Draghi starts speaking....

Its silly season....

The disappointment crash will be more entertaining than the hopium rise.

I wonder if Ben feels he MUST act now with some half measure... like a new remix of stimulus short of full out QE, because he knows Draghi has built expectations so high he is almost sure to disappoint Thursday?

I agree,but this buying feels like short covering,
clearing the books a little before summer breaks,
can't think that there is any real buying here apart
from some clever money pushing the price up to the
next set of TP stops from higher shorts.
Just thinking.

Good day to you,

Have looked at the charts from all angles to attempt to make sense. Decided that short would probably serve me better at the moment... So - will look to build something on the daily.

Going to have to be patient.

Regards

don't know if any of you do this kind of trading, but a nice opportunity is opening up with todays price action.

You sell the FTSE and buy the Dax in equal finacial amounts.
I use a model that then also adjusts for volatility but not necessary for this trade.

I shall wait for the one of them to start rolling over on say M5 or M15 better to enter.

That would be way over my head... i'm a dummy.

Interesting though.

Regards

made an entry on these

Short FTSE @ 5640.5
Long Dax @ 6763.5

no stops as they should maintain a natural hedge. I will just keep an eye on it from time to time.....

current status is: overall -5 pip

lol I think not.......

simple concept wait for two carefully matched securities to drift further apart than normal - many ways to measure that (that is the secret bit)

in this case one has rallied and the other has not today for simplicity

then sell the high one buy the low one and wait for normal synchronisation to re-establish....

in the meantime they form a natural hedge so it is low risk - but reward is also limited

it's what the hedge funds do day in day out since the 50's

you just have to be careful what securities you pick and when to you get in.

EDIT: and extremely important to ensure that you balance the trades in money terms ie: that 1 pip move is worth the same for each security - you control this with lot sizing

Good day to you,

Thank you for taking the time.. it makes perfect sense. Instuments going out of "sync" has to come back to balance. Identifying the one that is most probable to move can be powerful. I understand what you are saying.

Let us know how it went down once you are done. All the best.

Regards

afternoon
Hate those statements as when I finally manage to read them the initial entry point is long gone and usually I miss those few magic words that moved the market.
1,2375 for bulls (200SMA/H4)
1,2240 for bear crew ideally under 1,2200
I kind of think that FED will pump her up and Draghi will drag her to abyss.
If H&S is valid we should be able to reach 1,2620/00 area if not 1,1875 is a must.
I wonder if bloomberg does most important quotes from that statement live.

Good day to you,

Entered short @ 1.2315 on the daily. Will possibly add depending on how chart sets up tomorrow. 4hr still shows upward bias. Will update as I go.

Regards

Banked @ 1.2254

Regards

very nice

I have taken half off waiting for the bonus

also on aussie

Thanks.

Good luck to you. Well done!

Wanted to get pips in the bank -will look at it again later...

All the best

That was just the first sting of methadone instead of the numb of Hopium....

Tomorrow the real sobriety demands will hit...

Morning Gays,

Halo Mr.Tau - Glad you bank profits today

and all's the brother sista here

14:33 EDT - The Fed's inaction is a disappointment for many, but the ECB's Draghi has put himself in a very tough position in claiming the central bank will do whatever it takes to defend the euro. So if he does not deliver tomorrow, there will be a much bigger disappointment, says Charles St-Arnaud at Nomura. The Fed may have decided to wait and see what the ECB does and how it impacts the market before the US central bank decides to takes fresh action, he said. Dollar strongly higher against many of its rivals, with the euro down more than 0.5% on day at $1.2237, according to EBS via CQG. ([email protected])


14:33 EDT - Dan Greenhaus of BTIG makes a point of two changes in the FOMC statement. First is the downgrade of economic assessment and the other being the word change that the Fed will "closely monitor incoming information...and will [rather than just being prepared to] provide additional accommodation as needed." He says policy makers "are most certainly waiting to see what the ECB does and whether any steps they take boost global output." The Fed's European brethren meet Thursday while the next FOMC meeting is in mid-September. So the ECB gathers twice before then. ([email protected])


14:31 EDT - Long-term Treasury futures received a temporary price boost after Fed pledges to "provide additional accommodation as needed," but refrains from taking new action. Sept classic Tsy bonds--covering 15-25yr maturities--rose to 151-17 versus overnight high of 151-19 and yesterday's peak of 151-20. Recently trading at 151-03. Sept 10-yr Tsy notes don't stray far from 1.5% implied rate, equal to a futures price of 134-17, according to Optima Investment Research. ([email protected])


14:29 EDT - Crude-oil futures stayed positive into the close as the FOMC demurs for now on new monetary-easing measures. After a brief dip to $87.92/barrel, front-month September futures recovered their gains from earlier in the day. Traders expected Fed inaction, says Andy Lebow of Jefferies, and they are already looking ahead to Thursday's ECB meeting. A higher-than-expected drop in crude-oil inventories has boosted today's action, with Nymex September up 76c at $88.82. ([email protected])


14:28 EDT - The Fed's September policymaking meeting is shaping up as a do-or-die moment if the Fed wants to do another round of QE. By then it will have had two jobs reports with which to fulfill its vow today to "closely monitor incoming information." But it will also be the very last chance it has to act before the election. The next meeting is on Oct. 23-24. Any stimulus action then would open the Fed up to criticism of having electoral motives. ([email protected])


14:27 EDT - Richmond Fed's Lacker books yet another dissent, his fifth this year. At the end of June, he didn't like the continuation of Operation Twist. This time, Lacker was against the continued expectation rates will stay very low until late 2014. In any case, the Fed hawks are not winning the debate on central bank policy. ([email protected])