I think the only thing that can make this go up is the announcement of QE3. This is a real possibility to make the market rise to new highs prior to the big sell off on Friday with the NFP. They have been cooking the books for months on the unemployment #'s so it wouldn't surprise me at all if the numbers are good in fact I have thought since the end of last week that this could be the trigger to begin the cycle downward.
Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery
- #2,642
- Aug 1, 2012 12:15am Aug 1, 2012 12:15am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jan 2011 | 31,935 Posts
BIG!
Its going to go up! Knew it.. Called it.. Will bag it
daddybearforex. com
- #2,643
- Aug 1, 2012 12:19am Aug 1, 2012 12:19am
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
- #2,649
- Aug 1, 2012 12:28am Aug 1, 2012 12:28am
- Joined May 2006 | Status: Still here. | 2,602 Posts
Here is the real money. The red line in the lower COT chart shows the commercials in the SELLING zone.
Usually the commercials are opposite to the trend, and there's still some room for them to be selling until they reach the bottom (and opposite to large speculators), where usually a reversal can take place.
You can see on the chart the former turning points and the COT trends that were in place at each level. (red and green dots).
:quote: Using the COT Report
In using the COT report, commercial positioning is less relevant than noncommercial positioning because the majority of commercial currency trading is done in the spot currency market, so any commercial futures positions are highly unlikely to give an accurate representation of real market positioning. Noncommercial data, on the other hand, is more reliable as it captures traders' positions in a specific market. There are three primary premises on which to base trading with the COT data:
- Flips in market positioning may be accurate trending indicators.
- Extreme positioning in the currency futures market has historically been accurate in identifying important market reversals.
- Changes in open interest can be used to determine strength of trend. :unquote:
Source: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/COTreport.asp#axzz22Gk4v800
P.S.: Where are you finding those charts? I used to visit the Timing Charts website but they have changed their presentation and don't show the COT graphs anymore by now. Thanks in advance!
- #2,650
- Aug 1, 2012 12:31am Aug 1, 2012 12:31am
- Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,711 Posts
about to hit 1.05 again 
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
- #2,651
- Aug 1, 2012 12:32am Aug 1, 2012 12:32am
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
about to hit 1.05 again
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
- #2,652
- Aug 1, 2012 12:34am Aug 1, 2012 12:34am
- Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,711 Posts
yeah -- lets see if anyone else wants to take a short!
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
- #2,653
- Aug 1, 2012 12:35am Aug 1, 2012 12:35am
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
- #2,654
- Aug 1, 2012 12:36am Aug 1, 2012 12:36am
- Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,711 Posts
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
- #2,655
- Aug 1, 2012 12:37am Aug 1, 2012 12:37am
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
- #2,656
- Aug 1, 2012 12:38am Aug 1, 2012 12:38am
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
- #2,657
- Aug 1, 2012 12:39am Aug 1, 2012 12:39am
- Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,711 Posts
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
- #2,658
- Aug 1, 2012 12:41am Aug 1, 2012 12:41am
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
- #2,659
- Aug 1, 2012 12:43am Aug 1, 2012 12:43am
- Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,711 Posts
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
- #2,660
- Aug 1, 2012 12:45am Aug 1, 2012 12:45am
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.