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  • #6,381
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:28am Jul 30, 2012 5:28am
My 2 cents: given that this system is based on a very low timeframe backtesting is irrelevant. Forward testing is the only true way to see how the system performs
  • #6,382
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:32am Jul 30, 2012 5:32am
Quoting stevewalker
having eg.. 100 loosers in a row needs a great mental strenght. agree!

but again SL should be optimum value. not minimum.
TP should be optimum value. not maximum.

walker
The philosophy is absolutely correct.

However, the optimum SL for this strategy IS the minimum.
TP point however, is pretty random, and I do look forward to your input on the matter.

You miss the essence of this strategy, which lies in two crucial points:

1) move SL to BE ASAP
2) take as big a trade as your broker allows you to do

Both objectives are hit to their maximum when you keep SL at the minimum.

I know you missed the point because you propose testing 15pip SL against 1000 pip TP. That indicates to me that you think the crux of this strategy is a big TP:SL ratio.
  • #6,383
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:33am Jul 30, 2012 5:33am
My Bt is for 8 yeas on 1min TF which is more then enough.

But BT means nothing!

it only gives some statistical data.

walker


Quoting TheMaxx
My 2 cents: given that this system is based on a very low timeframe backtesting is irrelevant. Forward testing is the only true way to see how the system performs
  • #6,384
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:34am Jul 30, 2012 5:34am
Quoting TheMaxx
My 2 cents: given that this system is based on a very low timeframe backtesting is irrelevant. Forward testing is the only true way to see how the system performs

It is possible to backtest tick data using mt4.

But i suspect steve is probably using another program. Either way, with proper tick data, backtesting is as accurate as forward testing, assuming perfect conditions.
  • #6,385
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:38am Jul 30, 2012 5:38am
ok.

but how do you know that the optimum SL is the min SL which is 0 SL or BE ASAP.

thats why I have asked if you have statistical data to proove your trading desecions. I am not asking to get those from you and pointed as a lazy man.

but I really would like to hear that you have stats and your trading type fits with your stats.

or it will not go further then fishing.

walker

Quoting deathbait
The philosophy is absolutely correct.

However, the optimum SL for this strategy IS the minimum.
TP point however, is pretty random, and I do look forward to your input on the matter.

You miss the essence of this strategy, which lies in two crucial points:

1) move SL to BE ASAP
2) take as big a trade as your broker allows you to do

Both objectives are hit to their maximum when you keep SL at the minimum.

I know you missed the point because you propose testing 15pip SL against 1000 pip TP. That indicates to me that you think the crux...
  • #6,386
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:42am Jul 30, 2012 5:42am
I use MT4 & Bar Open.
I dont use each tick ever. ( I met with Birt )
there is no poss of happening the same ticks in the past will happen in the future.

bar open is rough enough to test.

walker

Quoting deathbait
It is possible to backtest tick data using mt4.

But i suspect steve is probably using another program. Either way, with proper tick data, backtesting is as accurate as forward testing, assuming perfect conditions.
  • #6,387
  • Jul 30, 2012 6:06am Jul 30, 2012 6:06am
Hi Tony112

have you ever made 400 pips on a trade that triggered on wednesday?

please advise
walker
  • #6,388
  • Jul 30, 2012 6:21am Jul 30, 2012 6:21am
Quoting stevewalker
ok.

but how do you know that the optimum SL is the min SL which is 0 SL or BE ASAP.

thats why I have asked if you have statistical data to proove your trading desecions. I am not asking to get those from you and pointed as a lazy man.

but I really would like to hear that you have stats and your trading type fits with your stats.

or it will not go further then fishing.

walker
Because I don't get carried away with optimization.

I read the method, tried it out a few times, and noted the key essence of the strategy.

This is a rather unique method of trading, and what makes it unique are the two points I made before.

I'm not sure how much clearer I can explain this. The "soul" of the strategy is to use a minimal SL to maximise lots taken and chances of moving SL to BE ASAP.

If you ignore this key concept and seek to just maximise your returns by curve fitting the SL and TP inputs, there's nothing wrong with it. You'll just end up with a completely different strategy that sounds like it may have come from here, but in practice feels or trades nothing like it.

As far as backtesting goes, I'm not sure how MT4 was so screwed up in the first place, but I agree it's not good for backtesting sub hour based strategies. That's why I assumed you wrote your own backtesting program.

I'm surprised to learn that you know enough to understand the limits of tick data with mt4, yet claim testing this strategy on 1 min data is good enough.
  • #6,389
  • Jul 30, 2012 6:28am Jul 30, 2012 6:28am
Because I don't get carried away with optimization.

I read the method, tried it out a few times, and noted the key essence of the strategy. what makes you enter the trade? or do you just open with every UK/US open first tick direction?

This is a rather unique method of trading, and what makes it unique are the two points I made before.

I'm not sure how much clearer I can explain this. The "soul" of the strategy is to use a minimal SL to maximise lots taken and chances of moving SL to BE ASAP. I really got that and it is great idea!

If you ignore this key concept and seek to just maximise your returns by curve fitting the SL and TP inputs, there's nothing wrong with it. You'll just end up with a completely different strategy that sounds like it may have come from here, but in practice feels or trades nothing like it.
it is not maximizing returns. IMO it is trading with rules.

As far as backtesting goes, I'm not sure how MT4 was so screwed up in the first place, but I agree it's not good for backtesting sub hour based strategies. That's why I assumed you wrote your own backtesting program.
I use Bar open so MT4 can not do anything wrong.

I'm surprised to learn that you know enough to understand the limits of tick data with mt4, yet claim testing this strategy on 1 min data is good enough.
if I use %100 tick data then it will be optimization. I use bar open to see past performance and that gives me some spot light to the future.
[/quote]
  • #6,390
  • Jul 30, 2012 7:49am Jul 30, 2012 7:49am
Anyone else in today's NY open sell trade?
  • #6,391
  • Jul 30, 2012 8:49am Jul 30, 2012 8:49am
Quoting stevewalker
Because I don't get carried away with optimization.

I read the method, tried it out a few times, and noted the key essence of the strategy. what makes you enter the trade? or do you just open with every UK/US open first tick direction?

This is a rather unique method of trading, and what makes it unique are the two points I made before.

I'm not sure how much clearer I can explain this. The "soul" of the strategy is to use a minimal SL to maximise lots taken and chances of moving SL to BE ASAP. [color="blue"]I...
[/quote]

sigh

maximising returns over historic data == optimisation == curve fitting.

I think we've discussed this to death. I wish you luck in your endeavours and hope you continue to share your results tweaking the TP(I agree this aspect of the strategy can do with some looking into) with us
  • #6,392
  • Jul 30, 2012 8:54am Jul 30, 2012 8:54am
Quoting TheMaxx
Anyone else in today's NY open sell trade?
And I'm out
  • #6,393
  • Jul 30, 2012 9:11am Jul 30, 2012 9:11am
you totally of the topic

I am talking about MFE MAE data you are talking about curve fitting.

sorry.
no more comments

walker
sigh

maximising returns over historic data == optimisation == curve fitting.

I think we've discussed this to death. I wish you luck in your endeavours and hope you continue to share your results tweaking the TP(I agree this aspect of the strategy can do with some looking into) with us[/quote]
  • #6,394
  • Jul 30, 2012 9:20am Jul 30, 2012 9:20am
Quoting TheMaxx
And I'm out
Same here. Nice BE after this mornings LO which really should not have been taken Lets give it a shot tomorrow again. Sound like Tony missed it, too much Apples for him the weekend?
  • #6,395
  • Jul 30, 2012 9:40am Jul 30, 2012 9:40am
Quoting quicksliver
Same here. Nice BE after this mornings LO which really should not have been taken Lets give it a shot tomorrow again. Sound like Tony missed it, too much Apples for him the weekend?
Why do you say this mornings LO should not have been taken? Thanks
  • #6,396
  • Jul 30, 2012 9:44am Jul 30, 2012 9:44am
Quoting quicksliver
Same here. Nice BE after this mornings LO which really should not have been taken Lets give it a shot tomorrow again. Sound like Tony missed it, too much Apples for him the weekend?
Tony should still be in his long position, so he won't have been entering new positions today
  • #6,397
  • Jul 30, 2012 9:45am Jul 30, 2012 9:45am
Quoting TheMaxx
Why do you say this mornings LO should not have been taken? Thanks
It was on a news release: GB House prices. Then again, maybe thats why the system works so well sometimes, its the indirect news releases that keep the spread thin but impacts the PA greatly.
  • #6,398
  • Jul 30, 2012 9:55am Jul 30, 2012 9:55am
Quoting quicksliver
It was on a news release: GB House prices. Then again, maybe thats why the system works so well sometimes, its the indirect news releases that keep the spread thin but impacts the PA greatly.
Thanks

Quoting deathbait
Tony should still be in his long position, so he won't have been entering new positions today
Only one trade open at a time? Thanks.
  • #6,399
  • Jul 30, 2012 10:08am Jul 30, 2012 10:08am
Quoting TheMaxx
Thanks


Only one trade open at a time? Thanks.
Try using this method the way Tony says to use it and you'll realise it's not a choice. You Max out your margins with each trade u take
  • #6,400
  • Jul 30, 2012 10:17am Jul 30, 2012 10:17am
Can't recall reading about the true leverage he recommends. He did mention his leverage being 50, but I thought that was the broker leverage for the account.

Going all out does go against good MM. He did mention being a gambler now and then so maybe that is where it comes from ?
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