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  • #6,361
  • Jul 29, 2012 7:37pm Jul 29, 2012 7:37pm
Quoting cgforex
I like the way you think. I have seen many trade go positive the turn around hit SL. Tony has established a great way to trade (manage $$) set and forget. No reason you can't set your self up with a little $$ if it goes in the right direction.....

Cheers
What you've actually done is to smoothen out your equity curve, with less volatility.

However it is less profitable then a direct 140 tp target.
It all depends on your mental strength and how you can remove emotion from your trades. Thus there ain't no one size fits all.
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #6,362
  • Jul 30, 2012 1:09am Jul 30, 2012 1:09am
Thanks for sharing Tony, I am eager to follow your system.
  • #6,363
  • Jul 30, 2012 2:14am Jul 30, 2012 2:14am
with respect to Tony112,

I should say that

according to my BT results

- entering with an algo, not just blind entry every open ( the original system was using 8 pips in 5 secs if I am not wrong )
- NOT moving 15 pip SL to BE anytime. ( even if price test the same level again once, this costs 1000 pip )
- 1000 pip TP FIX

gives much more better results

walker
  • #6,364
  • Jul 30, 2012 2:23am Jul 30, 2012 2:23am
Quoting stevewalker
with respect to Tony112,

I should say that

according to my BT results

- entering with an algo, not just blind entry every open ( the original system was using 8 pips in 5 secs if I am not wrong )
- NOT moving 15 pip SL to BE anytime. ( even if price test the same level again once, this costs 1000 pip )
- 1000 pip TP FIX

gives much more better results

walker
Could you please post your EA?
  • #6,365
  • Jul 30, 2012 2:25am Jul 30, 2012 2:25am
not completed yet.

also NOT a single win in 8 years on wednesdays

Quoting TheMaxx
Could you please post your EA?
  • #6,366
  • Jul 30, 2012 2:32am Jul 30, 2012 2:32am
has any of the trader recorded his/her statistical data?
like;

Date/Time
MFE
MAE
Duration
...........

please advise
walker
  • #6,367
  • Jul 30, 2012 2:42am Jul 30, 2012 2:42am
Quoting stevewalker
not completed yet.

also NOT a single win in 8 years on wednesdays
If you could post when completed that would be greatly appreciated.

Also, when you say:

Quoting stevewalker
- entering with an algo, not just blind entry every open ( the original system was using 8 pips in 5 secs if I am not wrong )
What do you mean by "not blind entry"? What entry criteria are you using?

I don't have records to share I've only been demo testing this for one month.
  • #6,368
  • Jul 30, 2012 2:55am Jul 30, 2012 2:55am
Tonny112 originally was using the acceleration of the price.
I use the quite same logic on 1 min chart.
( I have no change of testing smaller time frames with MT4 unless I convert all history to range bars )

walker
Quoting TheMaxx
If you could post when completed that would be greatly appreciated.

Also, when you say:


What do you mean by "not blind entry"? What entry criteria are you using?

I don't have records to share I've only been demo testing this for one month.
  • #6,369
  • Jul 30, 2012 4:28am Jul 30, 2012 4:28am
Dear Traders whom trading this system

if you are not recording your trade data, especially for this system, it is very difficoult for you to survive.

statistical data is very important for any type of trade, but extreemly important for this system.

walker
  • #6,370
  • Jul 30, 2012 4:36am Jul 30, 2012 4:36am
Quoting stevewalker
Dear Traders whom trading this system

if you are not recording your trade data, especially for this system, it is very difficoult for you to survive.

statistical data is very important for any type of trade, but extreemly important for this system.

walker
while i'm a fan of statistical data testing, that statement is just wrong.

The data is important for you who are collecting it to approximate the trade's profitability. Not recording it just means they're pretty much using a blackbox method(tony's) and putting their faith in it.

It means they're trading blind, but it certainly does not mean it will be difficult for them to survive.
  • #6,371
  • Jul 30, 2012 4:42am Jul 30, 2012 4:42am
when you miss 2-3 trades that will win 400 pip just becouse of 0.1 pip then you will understand what I am saying.

Quoting deathbait
while i'm a fan of statistical data testing, that statement is just wrong.

The data is important for you who are collecting it to approximate the trade's profitability. Not recording it just means they're pretty much using a blackbox method(tony's) and putting their faith in it.

It means they're trading blind, but it certainly does not mean it will be difficult for them to survive.
  • #6,372
  • Jul 30, 2012 4:53am Jul 30, 2012 4:53am
you're not gonna get far curve fitting.

missing the edge cases is the leap you have to take to take any strategy live.
  • #6,373
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:00am Jul 30, 2012 5:00am
could not get what you mean
can you please explain it better

walker
Quoting deathbait
you're not gonna get far curve fitting.

missing the edge cases is the leap you have to take to take any strategy live.
  • #6,374
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:07am Jul 30, 2012 5:07am
Quoting stevewalker
could not get what you mean
can you please explain it better

walker

sorry, did that on my phone.

What I meant was, you can't hope to catch all the trades that fall through by 0.1 pip or so. That's what I meant by extreme cases.

Bear in mind that the entire strategy hinges on the tight SL. For a 2pip SL for example, 0.1pip is 5% of the entire SL. At that kind of level, every minipip actually counts.

I get what you mean by keeping records and testing strategies, I really do. I'm just saying that in this case you're wrong. Not keeping records won't affect profitability of a trade one single bit.

By the way, I noticed you've been leaning towards testing a bigger SL with a bigger TP. Personally, I think that misses the whole point of this strategy, which is to tighten your SL so you can take on bigger trades and tighten the SL to BE asap.
  • #6,375
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:09am Jul 30, 2012 5:09am
Quoting stevewalker
could not get what you mean
can you please explain it better

walker
By tweaking a system to perform best under certain conditions, you usually worsen its performance under different conditions. And there is no such thing as "same conditions" in the markets. Ergo, overfitting (e.g. setting the SL just a bit bigger to catch those trades you saw missed on the backtest) is likely to backfire.

Best regards,
Barbossa
  • #6,376
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:15am Jul 30, 2012 5:15am
thank you

first is first
I am not trying to change the original system. I am just approaching from different point of view that can help to improve.

the most important thing about statistics is, when price make a fast move and ride further most of the time it wants to test the start level again. it moves 200 pips, returns test the level again and moves 400 pips or more to the trade direction. at that point original system will exit at BE.

how often does this happen?
what is MFE, MAE, duratin of trades?

those are important data.

walker


Quoting deathbait
sorry, did that on my phone.

What I meant was, you can't hope to catch all the trades that fall through by 0.1 pip or so. That's what I meant by extreme cases.

Bear in mind that the entire strategy hinges on the tight SL. For a 2pip SL for example, 0.1pip is 5% of the entire SL. At that kind of level, every minipip actually counts.

I get what you mean by keeping records and testing strategies, I really do. I'm just saying that in this case you're wrong. Not keeping records won't affect profitability of a trade one single bit.

By the...
  • #6,377
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:22am Jul 30, 2012 5:22am
Like I said, I get what you're trying to do. I'm just trying to save you time by pointing out that the path you take will lead you to the eventual conclusion that it's not in the spirit of this strategy.

I know because I've been looking at this for years, since tony started this thread. I too have done what you're doing now, looking to tweak the SL to capture the "trades that got away".

The point is, for this trade to work, you NEED the SL to be very small. And with a small SL, any fractional pip you tweak is a big % of the whole SL, and this factors into the profitability.

If you've tried trading this live, you'll realise this very quickly. Every fractional pip hurts so much. That's the biggest hurdle to trading this live. The mental discipline required is ridiculous.
  • #6,378
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:23am Jul 30, 2012 5:23am
you are talking about Optimization.
I am not trying to optimize, just trying to fit system into the statistical data.

optimiztion is another topic.

have a look at the attached pdf how stat works

walker
Quoting Barbossa
By tweaking a system to perform best under certain conditions, you usually worsen its performance under different conditions. And there is no such thing as "same conditions" in the markets. Ergo, overfitting (e.g. setting the SL just a bit bigger to catch those trades you saw missed on the backtest) is likely to backfire.

Best regards,
Barbossa
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf eSignal_Manual_ch10.pdf   673 KB | 1,042 downloads
  • #6,379
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:25am Jul 30, 2012 5:25am
Dunno how to break it to you man, but that's optimisation.
  • #6,380
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:26am Jul 30, 2012 5:26am
having eg.. 100 loosers in a row needs a great mental strenght. agree!

but again SL should be optimum value. not minimum.
TP should be optimum value. not maximum.

walker

Quoting deathbait
Like I said, I get what you're trying to do. I'm just trying to save you time by pointing out that the path you take will lead you to the eventual conclusion that it's not in the spirit of this strategy.

I know because I've been looking at this for years, since tony started this thread. I too have done what you're doing now, looking to tweak the SL to capture the "trades that got away".

The point is, for this trade to work, you NEED the SL to be very small. And with a small SL, any fractional pip you tweak is a big % of the whole SL, and...
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