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AUD/USD

  • #51,161
  • Jul 27, 2012 7:04pm Jul 27, 2012 7:04pm
Quoting ForexMGames
...Being a fundamentally sound country, with stable politics and economy.....
Ah the (de)illusion we can create. Fundamentally sound as long as China keeps buying our resources. A Hung parliament that resembles nothing more than a bunch of whacko's running around like headless chickens (opposition not excluded).

In reality, the rest of the economy is drowning. Only the mining industry has their head above water (for now - as long as China keeps buying). I heard someone say in here the other day it was only tourism and manufacturing suffering, yeah right and everything else (retail, construction, advertising/media etc...).

Not to forget we have mining magnates acting completely irrational splurging on shares, legislating to hire cheap overseas labour and the big one... Rebuilding the Titanic

Sounds to me like desperation is starting to set in.... Because good things never last forever.

Keep on your toes and don't bet the farm on it. Pips are there to be made either way.

  • #51,162
  • Jul 27, 2012 7:38pm Jul 27, 2012 7:38pm
Time for my Aussie mate to go down to 1.02XX,its way overbought and all the big boys like bhp and rio tinto want it down badly.

Ps strong dollar is bad for the economy.
  • #51,163
  • Jul 27, 2012 7:55pm Jul 27, 2012 7:55pm
Quoting ibram.forex
Time for my Aussie mate to go down to 1.02XX,its way overbought and all the big boys like bhp and rio tinto want it down badly.

Ps strong dollar is bad for the economy.
nowhere else to park money $AUS provides good interest... bigger boys overrule your big boys. Still a bit more to go for me.
  • #51,164
  • Jul 27, 2012 8:51pm Jul 27, 2012 8:51pm
Quoting sidhujag
nowhere else to park money $AUS provides good interest... bigger boys overrule your big boys. Still a bit more to go for me.
I can only hope you're wrong this time. When everybody wants aud to go down, its sometimes go to the opposite way, but hopefuly not this time. Down to the ground please!
  • #51,165
  • Jul 28, 2012 4:25am Jul 28, 2012 4:25am
The AUDUSD and NZDUSD have a very different move of EURUSD and GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD can cantinue going up up up or down down down without a mini retrace!!!! it desperate if you are in the wrong side!!!!!
Anyway, i think even if wee see 1.05XX the pair have to see a correction of 100-150 pips...same for NZDUSD
  • #51,166
  • Jul 28, 2012 5:32am Jul 28, 2012 5:32am
AUD and NZD are very equity related, and they have been over performing EUR, GBP and CAD in the last two months.

I believe the risk is for a drop to 1.02 - 03 if Fed does not announce QE3 next week and by consequence, stock go lower.
There is also a chance of a spike on such an announcement, followed by a sell -off, as such a news is priced in the S&P (see its recent over performance with European bourses, http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=3m&s...2C%5EIBEX&ql=1 )

I have started a short yesterday at 1.0485 and will tend to increase up to 1.06 with a first target at 1.0290 followed by 1.0250.

Would try to start collecting long positions again if we reach 1.0170 to 1.02 in the coming weeks.
  • #51,167
  • Jul 28, 2012 9:01am Jul 28, 2012 9:01am
Quoting azzam
I can only hope you're wrong this time. When everybody wants aud to go down, its sometimes go to the opposite way, but hopefuly not this time. Down to the ground please!
hahahaaaaaa cut ur loss sucker maybe we can gap down
  • #51,168
  • Jul 28, 2012 9:02am Jul 28, 2012 9:02am
Quoting fammira
AUD and NZD are very equity related, and they have been over performing EUR, GBP and CAD in the last two months.

I believe the risk is for a drop to 1.02 - 03 if Fed does not announce QE3 next week and by consequence, stock go lower.
There is also a chance of a spike on such an announcement, followed by a sell -off, as such a news is priced in the S&P (see its recent over performance with European bourses, http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=3m&s...2C%5EIBEX&ql=1 )

I have started a short yesterday...
ya u could be right u cam read my posts about snp if u wanna make money that is
  • #51,169
  • Jul 28, 2012 10:44am Jul 28, 2012 10:44am
Quoting sidhujag
ya u could be right u cam read my posts about snp if u wanna make money that is
you can make money beijing long or short, everything depends on your strategy, time frame, patience, every pair gives chances both way every day.

it's always very difficult to forecast, but I believe that starting selling above 1.0480 and up to 1.06 could quite be profitable on the medium term
  • #51,170
  • Jul 28, 2012 2:54pm Jul 28, 2012 2:54pm
Quoting sidhujag
hahahaaaaaa cut ur loss sucker maybe we can gap down
Not so fast, I would prefer that Aud stays nicely in its channel, that makes it so lovely predictable
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 4 hr 7-28-12.gif Size: 27 KB
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  • #51,171
  • Jul 28, 2012 2:57pm Jul 28, 2012 2:57pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Not so fast, I would prefer that Aud stays nicely in its channel, that makes it so lovely predictable
Looks like somewhere around the 1.05xx mark and it will head back down
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #51,172
  • Jul 28, 2012 3:26pm Jul 28, 2012 3:26pm
Quoting dbutton1990
Looks like somewhere around the 1.05xx mark and it will head back down
It's likely.
Also look at the speed from the bottom to top of the channel, much faster than the last time.
I'm gonna built shorts at any sign of weakness
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  • #51,173
  • Jul 28, 2012 3:27pm Jul 28, 2012 3:27pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Not so fast, I would prefer that Aud stays nicely in its channel, that makes it so lovely predictable
I agree.

August is typically a rangy bearish month for aud/usd.
Any move down is welcomed for long term position traders who buy and hold this pair for swap interest.

I also love the aud/chf which pays over 15 usd per day swap interest (IBFX) on a full lot @ 20:1 leverage in the U.S. and I have a +3 pip s.l., so no risk.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud chf.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #51,174
  • Edited 4:41pm Jul 28, 2012 3:29pm | Edited 4:41pm
Quoting KillerWhale
It's likely.
Also look at the speed from the bottom to top of the channel, much faster than the last time.
I'm gonna built shorts at any sign of weakness
What kind of effect do you think this weeks events with the eur will have on the Aussie?
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #51,175
  • Jul 28, 2012 4:34pm Jul 28, 2012 4:34pm
Quoting dbutton1990
Sharon's of effect do you think this weeks events with the eur will have on the Aussie?
For this week no one can say with FOMC, NFP and other important news
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  • #51,176
  • Jul 28, 2012 10:50pm Jul 28, 2012 10:50pm
Yeah，FOMC and NFP are very important next week.
Here is my view on OZ, daily chart.
Any comments will be highly appreciated.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oz daily.gif Size: 31 KB

LOVE n PEACE
  • #51,177
  • Jul 28, 2012 11:55pm Jul 28, 2012 11:55pm
Quoting fammira
you can make money beijing long or short, everything depends on your strategy, time frame, patience, every pair gives chances both way every day.

it's always very difficult to forecast, but I believe that starting selling above 1.0480 and up to 1.06 could quite be profitable on the medium term
haha go for it. aud is strongest next to nzd but dont retailers all sell into strength and buy weakness? Until they talk intervention im a bull until my target is reached
  • #51,178
  • Jul 28, 2012 11:56pm Jul 28, 2012 11:56pm
I believe the market is pricing in three things.
1. Potential QE 3
2. USA drought
3. What better alternative? Or is China really slowing down and the manipulators (central banks) telling the world all is right with Europe

So looks like a bounce is possible and if the USA decides to not do any QE3 it would be a big bounce and bigger if the other conditions above deteriorate.

I believe this will happen as the fed has said that there are diminishing returns with more QE and there is an overwhelming sentiment for more QE. Because this is a negative sum game it sets up the perfect scenario as everyone will be pricing in more QE except for the fed!

Someone will make a lot of money!
  • #51,179
  • Jul 29, 2012 1:45am Jul 29, 2012 1:45am
Quoting sidhujag
haha go for it. aud is strongest next to nzd but dont retailers all sell into strength and buy weakness? Until they talk intervention im a bull until my target is reached
And what is your target Sidhujag?
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  • #51,180
  • Jul 29, 2012 1:47am Jul 29, 2012 1:47am
Hello

Carried my trades over the weekend,
Did a small hedge in case it spikes,either way
I noticed this pair did not move down when EUR/US was flying up down
on friday.I got caught with the EUR/US big move up,lost a bit but survived due to having a small hedge in place.
The plan is to trade the AUS/US until my account grows again.
The EUR being the hot Potatoe,the banks will dumping this big time.
Still the little Greedy Bastard in me wants to come out to play.So back to turtle mode trading this week,which will earn me some play time back in the danger zone.
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