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  • #1,021
  • Jul 27, 2012 1:03pm Jul 27, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting Crassius
Now come Monday... after this all has had time to sink in....

It will be time to start looking for a place to sell the fact to get in on the pull back.

Ha Ha Ha... thin conditions making it fun.
  • #1,022
  • Jul 27, 2012 1:49pm Jul 27, 2012 1:49pm
Good evening to you,

I have dreaded coming back to report. A massive error in judgement caused me serious losses over the past 36 hrs. To the tune of 300 pips.

I'm however slowly recovering by hedging short and long positions as we go.

I have made back 90% of the incurred losses and plan to walk away from this in profit.

Trust me.

This is one of the best learnt lessons of all time for me.

Here to stay.

Regards
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  • #1,023
  • Jul 27, 2012 2:04pm Jul 27, 2012 2:04pm
Quoting TauTrader
Good evening to you,

I have dreaded coming back to report. A massive error in judgement caused me serious losses over the past 36 hrs. To the tune of 300 pips.

I'm however slowly recovering by hedging short and long positions as we go.

I have made back 90% of the incurred losses and plan to walk away from this in profit.

Trust me.

This is one of the best learnt lessons of all time for me.

Here to stay.

Regards

Good Day To you,

u trade without stoploss brother ?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,024
  • Jul 27, 2012 2:14pm Jul 27, 2012 2:14pm
Quoting FXMindset
Good Day To you,

u trade without stoploss brother ?
Good day to you,

Not always. Sometimes on chart - sometimes mental. Took 3 positions short as posted as I was travelling... Stopped out @ 1.2255 giving me almost 300 pips in the red..

10% of my account gone.

However fixed that. Shorting 5 positions from the recent top, also hedging long inbetween. Cleared all and only 15 pips short to full recovery.

Will end up positive.

Will not make the same error. Ever.

Thank you for your concern

Regards
  • #1,025
  • Jul 28, 2012 4:34am Jul 28, 2012 4:34am
Current COT report shows a slight reduction in short sale positions and quite significant number of traders moving towards bullish positions, still shorts in favour for most of the market but there is a visible caution and slow change for few.
3 month eurodollars which is a fixed price futures contract of minimum
1 mil $(based on Libor) become again a very balanced between both sides of the market which is always indication of slowly forming bottom in price.
I think traders who participate in this type of contract prepare themself for possible trend change which "should" happen after summer (euro natural cycle). I also think they anticipate some form of bailout for Spain and further life line for Greece.
I am still bearish, nothing goes in straight line. I will be watching 1,24's and what happen there.
1,2695 is quite possible as well.
There will be few important news & meetings next week and I think if Draghi's statement won't be backed by official plan and Ben won't start printing she will drop like a rock.
As I said, they did it so many times before that nobody will believe them enough to change sentiment.
http://s13.postimage.org/i3rjaidb7/cot.gif

http://s13.postimage.org/iuk9gafoj/euro.gif
swing it!
  • #1,026
  • Jul 28, 2012 6:18am Jul 28, 2012 6:18am
Quoting tomspin
>>>>>SNIP>>>>>>>>>>>>>>SNIP>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Ben won't start printing she will drop like a rock.

>>>>>>>>>>>SNIP>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>SNIP>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I will be more interested to see if the story line shift's to Draghi printing.... not so much Ben... who is hemmed in by the election.

They (Draghi and Co.) may try to structure it so it isn't printing on its face -- sterilized SMP, or put it in one pocket, then take it out of another and say that isn't QE, whatever.... But if the market counts it as ECB QE then that will be an interesting development.

Huge data week ahead..... will brings things better into focus.

I am intrigued by the coordinated nature of the moving lips on Friday especially, and the week taken as a whole. That is different.

They have no interest in talking up the Euro -- that is just the bi-product. A cheaper Euro is good for Euro area growth. Their comments are aimed at only two things --

Talking down bond rates -- which they succeeded in doing but only for a short while. If that's it then its the same old, same old.

Or -- trying to prevent a bank run on Spanish deposits -- either because it has already started, or something we don't know about yet is about to hit, maybe in a weekend shock announcement.

I know they have been flapping their lips for what seems forever --

But it has never been in such a finely crafted, coordinated way with even Schaubel and Merkel singing the party line....

All will play out in the Price Action of course... the farther she goes up the farther she has to fall.
  • #1,027
  • Jul 28, 2012 7:54am Jul 28, 2012 7:54am
I've read some members on other thread and there's a lesson for learn that whatever you "see" on the chart is..just follow and trade it,dont be bias..

Dont be blindly keep shorting or longing when the fundamental told you so and always wait the confirmation of PA before enter your long/short position

I was in first hand to see some great and consistent profits trader for over many years was loss it all at a days because overtrade,overconfidence & over risk

Never underestimate Mr.Market,
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,028
  • Jul 28, 2012 8:21am Jul 28, 2012 8:21am
It is very hard not to be biased in such conditions, I will be very honest with you - in my opinion we are all fucked up both US & EU - this will end in massive defaults and we will be lucky if hiperinflation miss our doors, what I am thinking is where it happens first. I don't believe those fuckers in suits they will say and do "whatever it takes to save their asses, and trust me - it will be enough"....
FXM very good point about not beign biased and be focused on PA and current, day by day charts. As chartist I do that and it is core of my trading but trying to decode those empty statements can give us an edge - something we all looking for don't we?
My bear looked at weekly candle and scratched his head in confusion, is it a rally at last? Problem solved? No it is not in my opinion - these are just words (so far) and real market cannot grow on just words.
I will be selling rallys until something official come up at least as temp solution,
Last summer was a one big consolidation which end up in solid sell off and year end up in almost pathetic rally - and Spain was not on the table back then. Just thinking what kind of rally (if any) we will see this year?
swing it!
  • #1,029
  • Jul 28, 2012 8:24am Jul 28, 2012 8:24am
Quoting tomspin
I will be very honest with you - in my opinion we are all fucked up both US & EU - this will end in massive defaults and we will be lucky if hiperinflation miss our doors,
I forgot to mentioned I lived trought hiperinflation as a kid - we had one in the 90's when Soviet block broke down. I was just six but I remmember many stuff - not nice I tell you.
swing it!
  • #1,030
  • Jul 28, 2012 8:27am Jul 28, 2012 8:27am
Quoting tomspin
It is very hard not to be biased in such conditions, I will be very honest with you - in my opinion we are all fucked up both US & EU - this will end in massive defaults and we will be lucky if hiperinflation miss our doors, what I am thinking is where it happens first. I don't believe those fuckers in suits they will say and do "whatever it takes to save their asses, and trust me - it will be enough"....
FXM very good point about not beign biased and be focused on PA and current, day by day charts. As chartist I do that and it is core of my...
Here,

Data = Mid & Longterm effects
PA = Everyday effects

Secondly

Every candle was formed must need a confirmation
a Bullish engulf was formed without a breaking up is invalid one or visa versa

Btw,Possible next week I will have my last Swing short and ride it fall till the end ( based on chart outlook )
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,031
  • Jul 28, 2012 8:28am Jul 28, 2012 8:28am
Quoting tomspin
I forgot to mentioned I lived trought hiperinflation as a kid - we had one in the 90's when Soviet block broke down. I was just six but I remmember many stuff - not nice I tell you.
you can tell me thru PM's


need to go now,have a nice day buddy
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #1,032
  • Jul 28, 2012 8:55am Jul 28, 2012 8:55am
Quoting Crassius
I will be more interested to see if the story line shift's to Draghi printing.... not so much Ben... who is hemmed in by the election.

They (Draghi and Co.) may try to structure it so it isn't printing on its face -- sterilized SMP, or put it in one pocket, then take it out of another and say that isn't QE, whatever.... But if the market counts it as ECB QE then that will be an interesting development.

Huge data week ahead..... will brings things better into focus.

I am intrigued by the coordinated nature of the moving lips on Friday...
Well said
  • #1,033
  • Edited 9:39am Jul 28, 2012 9:26am | Edited 9:39am
The first chart is from my last post here. The red 200 sma provided strong support along with the 50% fib of the decade long uptrend we saw that topped out at 1.6035.

That buy order was filled and tp'ed at 1.23.
i built sell orders above 1.23 up to 1.2388 which all tp'ed again at 1.23 late friday. 1.24 has a very strong option defense which was certain to fail (logically, anyway) on the first attempt. It failed Friday.

The 2nd chart is current from Friday. The current candle has 2 more days, and with the Hopium bullish market sentiment ahead of the ECB meeting Thursday, The pair will likely remain bid at support levels, until midweek.

Edit- the 3rd candle (May) is controlling this pair atm, and is bearish engulfing. The mid-point of that May candle is 1.2809. The June candle made a high of only 1.2746, confirming the bearish engulfing May candle, and a downtrend, short term.



Long term this pair is in a consolidation pattern from 1.6035 and won't be complete until 1.1875/1.640 previous swing lows are attempted. The range of this consolidation pattern is huge.

The current candle might close as a hammer if Market Sentiment remains Risk On.
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  • #1,034
  • Jul 29, 2012 3:32pm Jul 29, 2012 3:32pm
does anybody fancy a bit of a gap talk? it is sunday pre market after all
swing it!
  • #1,035
  • Jul 29, 2012 4:41pm Jul 29, 2012 4:41pm
I sold Euro
@ 1,2305
SL 1,2315
TP 1,2085

I sold her as she failed to close above 2320, this is not my usual trading hour as I prefer to lunch my trades when London opens but from time to time I make exeptions and it could be good trade - if not stop is placed just above my pivot point.
Good luck everybody, we are having one of those weeks full of great gains and burned accounts so be carefull and always use your stops

http://s12.postimage.org/fnn54et6l/euro.gif
upload photo
swing it!
  • #1,036
  • Jul 30, 2012 12:57am Jul 30, 2012 12:57am
Quoting tomspin
does anybody fancy a bit of a gap talk? it is sunday pre market after all

glad I was not here gap talk drives me crazy
  • #1,037
  • Jul 30, 2012 1:13am Jul 30, 2012 1:13am
So we have moved on from the position last week where we discussed and traded the ascent from 1.204x.

I mentioned the confluence of fib projections for a correction based on the two recent swings down from 1.347x - 1.204x and 1.274x - 1.204x - see chart

The action from 1.204x has made a nice clean 5wave trend completing my target zone which you will also notce is a confluence of the 23% and 50% fib retracements for the two swings down.

So for now I would assume the current high 1.238x to be completion of wave A of an ABC correction and therefore I am expecting a pullback before a lift higher.

It has already completed a pull back to around 25% but I am targeting 1.226x to 1.221x zone.

Currently short will look to get long once I see the signs of the pullback turning.
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  • #1,038
  • Edited 3:43am Jul 30, 2012 1:41am | Edited 3:43am
I am short targeting 85.8x to 84.4x zone

edit: short GBPJPY 122.94 - target open

edit: GBPJPY = half off BE+
EURUSD half off BE+
Crude Open
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  • #1,039
  • Jul 30, 2012 3:57am Jul 30, 2012 3:57am
Good morning
All I can say is look at daily charts on Gold, Euro/Dollar, Aussie, Sterling, Crude & SP 500

I do hold four short sells from
Euro 1,2305
Aussie 1,0480 & 1,0475
SP 500 1379,15

Euro certainly looks like another 1,20 - I am not saying it will happen but if I see a black candle today - the pattern is obvious.
I missed my entry in gold.

I can clearly see that the market is already ahead of mettings and statements. If SP fail to stay above 1372,55 we should see 1340,30 & possibly 1328,25 anything below that line would trigger even bigger sell off(Daily Trend line broken).

Today's target for euro/dollar should be about 1,2160 level
swing it!
  • #1,040
  • Jul 30, 2012 4:03am Jul 30, 2012 4:03am
Quoting tomspin
Good morning
All I can say is look at daily charts on Gold, Euro/Dollar, Aussie, Sterling, Crude & SP 500

I do hold four short sells from
Euro 1,2305
Aussie 1,0480 & 1,0475
SP 500 1379,15

Euro certainly looks like another 1,20 - I am not saying it will happen but if I see a black candle today - the pattern is obvious.
I missed my entry in gold.

I can clearly see that the market is already ahead of mettings and statements. If SP fail to stay above 1372,55 we should see 1340,30 & possibly 1328,25 anything below that line would trigger even bigger...

morning Tom,

good to know your views - even if we are not in tune today

I have closed my EU short and looking for a long entry now - I did think that we might see 1.221x but that has not happened so far
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