Principles of market movements

Hi Alex! Great Analysis!

I have noticed you have been trading by this method since 2008. So how is your trading results so far? Profitable ?

I've finally reached the end of the topic and so far I have two questions:

1#

Why on the markets where value doesn't have limits on both sides, when price is fallin as well as volume is, it is strong market? I'd say this right is ok for stocks, where most people only buy or sell, without going short. But here strong volume on down move should indicate strong market conviction, isn't it? Or in the terms u used here, strong market means its bias is to go long and weak market is likely going short?

2#

U have quoted here some parts of your book, could you please tell us where it is available?

3#

hmm 3rd question came to my mind: could u describe volume trading strategies for currencies or the way the important vol level changes?

Greetings

Hello!
That`s right. I started from volume analysis and continue trading it.
Although I had different periods, I`m satisfied with results.

Hello!
Nice to see you analysing this material seriously. Add me in slype aleksey_trader and I will send you book volume trading.

I will try to answer your question in pictures with example of Dollar Index:

2 weeks ago we saw a fall on rising volume:

http://savepic.net/3087634m.png

http://savepic.net/3140885m.png

http://savepic.net/3144981m.png

Picture is same if we check volume profile:

http://savepic.net/3130645m.png

http://savepic.net/3133717m.png

I'm glad u're still alive I hope u don't live in flooded area?

Thanks for your answers, now everything is clear. U see i used to think about volume in bars under the chart, so this is where i did my mistake.

Let me please repeat my last question: what can u tell us about volume strategies and changes for currencies?


Thx for your nick name, I've send u a message via skype.

Greetings

Chart of the month - Russel 2000:

http://savepic.net/3091575m.png

I don't understand why two bottom levels are there, when volume profile does not show those prices as the ones wit highest volume? Are they there because those levels were highest ones in the past, when those prices were reached?

As many people have asked, what do you base your actual entry criteria on? Volume builds at certain prices so you know they're going to be important. Ok, I understand that, but that still does not reveal to you whether it will be a buy or sell! From what I can see you base your entries on chart patterns, i.e. accumulation at a price and then the market moves away and then comes back to the same area - what you call the 'rebound'. However, during the accumulation phase the market still goes up and down so it is ALWAYS going away and coming back. How do you know how much the market has to move/return before it is considered a valid rebound and thus a signal to buy or sell? Also, just say the market goes up a little and comes back, how do you know to buy when it approaches the volume area? It could go under the volume area and become a sell! From what I could see, you did not reveal this absolutely critical step to successful trading in any of your posts. What you did say is that you 'do not predict the market'. Well, I am sorry, but unless you are doing some kind of hedging strategy, EVERYONE who places a trade is trying to predict the market. When you buy then you are predicting the market will go up and when you sell you are predicting it will go down. So saying you do not predict is a lie. That brings us back to the same old question of HOW do you make your predictions?

I shall use your very own charts to show there is something missing from what you have taught us and how volume as described by you here is not enough for successful trading. This is not to be interpreted as an antagonistic post. I just want you to reveal what it is you are withholding from us about how you ACTUALLY DECIDE ON THE DIRECTION TO TRADE.

In the picture below I have copied your original diagrams to show the accumulation phase and in it you will see my problems with what you have taught:

http://savepic.su/2267589.htm

You then try to show 'real world' examples of these diagrams with a couple of chart pictures of the Euro Futures. Here is your first one which showed the volume accumulating. I have added my own comments to it:

http://savepic.org/2396334.htm

After that you showed us the same chart one day later to show us an example of a rebound. This is great with the power of hindsight, but as you can see in MY version of your very same pic that there were a couple of times when the market approached the special volume price level that you ignored. I have pointed these out at the left of the chart and once again I must ask you what it is you are NOT telling us about selecting your entries:

http://savepic.su/2230725.htm

Thank you for your time reading this. I realise its been years since you first posted and probably have changed how you do things. Nevertheless, I would still like an explanation some time whenever you are online.

Hmm, my pictures don't seem to have hyperlinked to my first post. I will try to attach them here instead.

Hello, mate!
Two bottom levels on picture indicate prices with highest volume during short period of time. I analyse not only summary volume with the help of volume profile but also prices where volume rises most in a moment. As you can see on picture while market rised, there were two times when volume rised sharply during short time - on prices 804,5 and 815 (centers of circles) - it was the highest volume increase in a moment for more than few month. As a result, you may see a correction on the market after this volume. Correction was on low trading volume - which you may see on volume profile as well.


Take a look at this situation:

http://savepic.net/3173626m.png

http://savepic.net/3172602m.png

You may see shorts appeared after rebound on S&P 500 eminies:

http://savepic.net/3171578m.png

In addition to previous post - my friend, who recently started learning volume analysis sent me his trades:

http://savepic.net/3194896m.png

Hi Alex,

Its nice to read your thread, eventhough i havent finished reading it, i must say its the most interesting thread in ff.

I just wondering if I still can get trial of your software and the english manual if already available.

Thank you

Hi Alex, Can I have the book title & author if you dont mind, because im also interested. Thanks

Thx for your answer friend.

So you say that the biggest orders may determine market movement for next few days/weeks/months, depending on how big the order is and how it's implemented into the market?

One more thing is I sent you an email and tried to reach U on skype, unfortunatelly unsuccessfuly, so I like to ask u here if U find english version of the book we've talked about?

Greetings

Some sets up on euro with the rules of acceleration of volumes:

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/4944/euro2a.png
Uploaded with ImageShack.us


http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/7629/eurocont.png
Uploaded with ImageShack.us

http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/8526/euroi.png
Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Set up short on euro few minutes ago:

The closure of the short and the beginning of a very symmetric long:

The software Clusterdelta, that you see, is free, no payment, it displays the futures volumes from CME. Are available currencies, metals, energy and indexes.

If you like it, download from here and follow the numbering:

http://clusterdelta.com/platform#download

Too bad the site is only in Russian, it seems to be full of many useful resources...

Hello, thanks for sharing your trading insights with us. really appreciate it.

I have used the software but then i have a lot of questions regarding the price level relationship with volume.
Those areas with high volume are the significant buy and sell areas.

my questions are
1. what is acceleration of volumes ? is it after the major volume (red/orange boxes) appear, the price will move for quite a distance ?
2. the data comes from futures market ?


thank you