The three market movements:

Most traders will agree with me that there are three main market movements:

1. Up
2. Down
3. Sideways

How--from a completely mathematical viewpoint--would you determine the current state of the market?

I have always considered using volatility crossovers. E.g. if the ATR(20) crosses ATR(200) then we have moved from an up/down market to a sideways market and vice versa.

What have you used?

My eyes

There's no way to predict the future from previous price levels, just from S&R. If it braeks it breaks if it bounces it bounces, be ready for anything.

renegade,

Allow me to clarify,

I am not trying to predict the future. I'm only trying to determine the present.

You can't fully understand the present until you understand the past, which only happens in the future.

It's like we're driving down a downhill road declining ever so slightly that we can see that the car in front of us slowing down, but we don't know until later that there was actually congestion due to an accident.

Once you've established that in the near past there was a range (a high and a low) and that it's still within those extremes, then you can say "we're ranging". Only then though, not before. With trends, higher highs and higher lows and vice versa.