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  • #1,481
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:31pm Jul 26, 2012 5:31pm
Quoting payal
Papa,

As per this we should hit the 1.0250 level, your FIB 50 projections, before moving further up, right?


Series of 3 wave moves highlights triangle possibility
Last 3 wave "E" leg looks like it is still to come
After "E" leg is complete, look for a breakout higher
Rough target is the width of triangle projected from base of "E"
-- IFR
looks possible, aud was stalled ytd in 1.0425 zone. previous recent high at 1.0445 zone. EUR picked up 200 pips rally, while aud bull up 100+ and fade into 1.0390 zone mainly surrounding there in NY.

Price is dry out in EUR for sure. 1.0310-20 will be key point if broken we may see your 1.0250.
  • #1,482
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:35pm Jul 26, 2012 5:35pm
Quoting payal
Papa,

As per this we should hit the 1.0250 level, your FIB 50 projections, before moving further up, right?


Series of 3 wave moves highlights triangle possibility
Last 3 wave "E" leg looks like it is still to come
After "E" leg is complete, look for a breakout higher
Rough target is the width of triangle projected from base of "E"
-- IFR
payal, while most people can only see the footprints of TLOM, you do see his shadow. My FIB 50 is lower than yours may be due to different charting programs. Good Job!
daddybearforex. com
  • #1,483
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:42pm Jul 26, 2012 5:42pm
can't resist buying aud/nzd at open of 4h....previous bullish engulfing candle.
buy 1.2990 tp on daliy r1 1.3040

have had great success on this one from 1.2750 to 1.3070...several entry/exit

eur/aud could be a good long scalp tonight...check out daily chart...
bought 1.1814 tp 1.1844

thanks,
G
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #1,484
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:59pm Jul 26, 2012 5:59pm
I am thinking a minimal retrace to the PIVOT level at 1.0323 area. If that area is broken then I tend to agree with others that 1.0250 area is an easy target. As always I could be wrong. That's just my two cents.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Show me the PIPS!
  • #1,485
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:49pm Jul 26, 2012 6:49pm
hey db.

we lost electricity here after a little storm. I'm going to be on the sidelines till power is restored. little storm and we're back in the caveman era.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #1,486
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:59pm Jul 26, 2012 6:59pm
Quoting DaddyBear
payal, while most people can only see the footprints of TLOM, you do see his shadow. My FIB 50 is lower than yours may be due to different charting programs. Good Job!
Papa, I hope the shadow does not scare me, lol.

I do have a lower level than 1.0250 (1.019X), but 1.0250 looks like a nice round number. Hope I am wrong.
  • #1,487
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:01pm Jul 26, 2012 7:01pm
If history is a past indicator, the AUD will slip but not a total retrace to channel. It will probably tank just like the previous ESM rumors on 29th June.

Remember we still have hot money moving into the AUD to take advantage of the interest rate. EUR will probably be smacked back to Earth given that there is a lack of buyers while commodity currencies, NZD/AUD/CAD will probably tank through.

I am still waiting for a retrace for adding positions but it seems to be tanking so well right now.
  • #1,488
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:08pm Jul 26, 2012 7:08pm
Quoting Esssex
If history is a past indicator, the AUD will slip but not a total retrace to channel. It will probably tank just like the previous ESM rumors on 29th June.

Remember we still have hot money moving into the AUD to take advantage of the interest rate. EUR will probably be smacked back to Earth given that there is a lack of buyers while commodity currencies, NZD/AUD/CAD will probably tank through.

I am still waiting for a retrace for adding positions but it seems to be tanking so well right now.
Yes, I agree with you and here is an FYI from IFR...

SYDNEY, July 27 (IFR) - The insatiable quest for yield looks set to resume with a vengeance, as the market now believes the ECB will take strong action to short-circuit the Eurozone crisis and at least delay a catastrophic endgame. The falling debt yields in Italy and Spain should calm market volatility and suspend safe-haven flows ahead of the numerous central bank meetings next week. The market is once again being forced to price out worst case scenarios for the Eurozone and this should keep risk assets elevated despite global growth concerns. Investors are now faced with the strong possibility that next week the Fed will announce QE III, the BOE will expand their QE efforts and the ECB will step off the sidelines and announce a raft of measures. The bold declaration by ECB President Draghi that the ECB will do everything in its power to save the Euro has the market speculating the ECB might announce at their meeting next Thursday - the resumption of SMP; taking steps to make the ESM a banking license and possibly a third round of LTRO. Some analysts feel the ECB may also consider quantitative easing along the lines of the Fed and BOE efforts, though that is considered less likely at this stage. With volatility down and hopes rising - investors should resume their desperate search for quickly disappearing yield. And with more central bank action seemingly on the way - yields will likely compress even lower. The RBA also meets next week and unlike their peers in the developed world - the RBA looks set to stand pat. The relatively high yield on offer should ensure the AUD remains a darling for the carry trade investor - a group that includes sovereign wealth funds and real money funds besides the usual risk taking smaller investor. The EUR has been the funding currency of choice in recent weeks, but with the market short and a near-term Eurozone crisis appearing to have been side-stepped - investors may look to another funding currency and there is no shortage of choices. The extremely accommodative Fed makes the USD an appealing funding currency and if the BOJ announces further easing on Aug 9 - the JPY might resume its traditional role as funding currency of choice. We normally don't associate the GBP as a funding currency for carry trade investors, but further action by the BOE next puts AUD/GBP in the frame as an alternative for carry trade investors.
  • #1,489
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:12pm Jul 26, 2012 7:12pm
Quoting palabara
hey db.

we lost electricity here after a little storm. I'm going to be on the sidelines till power is restored. little storm and we're back in the caveman era.
Hope everything is O.K. with you. What kind of storm is this. A snow storm in summer time?
daddybearforex. com
  • #1,490
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:36pm Jul 26, 2012 7:36pm
Quoting Esssex
If history is a past indicator, the AUD will slip but not a total retrace to channel. It will probably tank just like the previous ESM rumors on 29th June.

Remember we still have hot money moving into the AUD to take advantage of the interest rate. EUR will probably be smacked back to Earth given that there is a lack of buyers while commodity currencies, NZD/AUD/CAD will probably tank through.

I am still waiting for a retrace for adding positions but it seems to be tanking so well right now.
I am confused by your message. We still have hot money moving into the AUD. On the other hand, commodity currencies, NZD/AUD/CAD will probably tank through. Which is correct?
daddybearforex. com
  • #1,491
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:55pm Jul 26, 2012 7:55pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Hope everything is O.K. with you. What kind of storm is this. A snow storm in summer time?
yeah is all good. was a tornado, we don't get to many of them in NY. so might as well be a snow storm.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #1,492
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:02pm Jul 26, 2012 8:02pm
Market Watch - 072612 - M15
A time of winding to be followed by a time of unwinding
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daddybearforex. com
  • #1,493
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:03pm Jul 26, 2012 8:03pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I am confused by your message. We still have hot money moving into the AUD. On the other hand, commodity currencies, NZD/AUD/CAD will probably tank through. Which is correct?
I guess my meaning of tank is kind of confusing here. By tank I mean be able to withstand the hits, which means it'll probably be able to withstand the bear attacks.

@Payal that was the fundamental reason I have been buying up AUD after the turn. I kind of betted on the big players moving money into AUD after cutting exposure to Europe.
  • #1,494
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:14pm Jul 26, 2012 8:14pm
Quoting Esssex
I guess my meaning of tank is kind of confusing here. By tank I mean be able to withstand the hits, which means it'll probably be able to withstand the bear attacks.

@Payal that was the fundamental reason I have been buying up AUD after the turn. I kind of betted on the big players moving money into AUD after cutting exposure to Europe.
O.K. Thanks. It makes sense. But, based on payal's chart, right now we are still in a winding zone of a larger TF. Seems to me, the hot money does not come in continuously. Do you know the reason behind this?
daddybearforex. com
  • #1,495
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:16pm Jul 26, 2012 8:16pm
Quoting Esssex
I guess my meaning of tank is kind of confusing here. By tank I mean be able to withstand the hits, which means it'll probably be able to withstand the bear attacks.

@Payal that was the fundamental reason I have been buying up AUD after the turn. I kind of betted on the big players moving money into AUD after cutting exposure to Europe.
I have always thought tank meant to fall in value to the extent of pushing past usual levels of support.
  • #1,496
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:24pm Jul 26, 2012 8:24pm
Quoting payal
Papa, I hope the shadow does not scare me, lol.

I do have a lower level than 1.0250 (1.019X), but 1.0250 looks like a nice round number. Hope I am wrong.
Don't be scared. The shadow is market's next move seen by your mind. I prefer to use shadow instead of projection. If the past is his footprints then the future would be his shadow.
daddybearforex. com
  • #1,497
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:24pm Jul 26, 2012 8:24pm
too soon to be determined..

1.0520 as the weekly stochastic 5,3,3 target

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while..

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  • #1,498
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:30pm Jul 26, 2012 8:30pm
Quoting DaddyBear
O.K. Thanks. It makes sense. But, based on payal's chart, right now we are still in a winding zone of a larger TF. Seems to me, the hot money does not come in continuously. Do you know the reason behind this?
My guess is..

Market movers right now are still split between moving their money to safe haven assets and higher yield assets like the AUD.

So it doesn't happen right away, there are some conflicting movements of money happening right now. One from big market players who have been active yield chasers in the T-bill market and are leaving the T-Bills due to the lower yield from risk aversion.

These guys are putting their money into higher yield assets like the AUD, while there are people unwinding their European positions and putting it back into the T-bills instead of higher yielding assets.

So majorly 2 different big players taking different actions right now, 1 who have been burnt by Europe and are now trying to protect themselves going into T-bills, another who have been making a killing in T-bills and are now moving out to non-European risky assets for higher returns.

How long the bull run may continue, this can't be determined but 2 things are certain, countries with higher I/R and little exposure to EU and T-Bills are benefitting the most from this crisis.
  • #1,499
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:35pm Jul 26, 2012 8:35pm
Quoting irfandbl
too soon to be determined..

1.0520 as the weekly stochastic 5,3,3 target

Attachment

while..

Attachment
This is what I think .....
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daddybearforex. com
  • #1,500
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:38pm Jul 26, 2012 8:38pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This is what I think .....
so you're taking your mask off ha Papa? big time I guess
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