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  • #21
  • Jul 5, 2012 7:36am Jul 5, 2012 7:36am
Price is stalling just in front of my limit orders, closed half at market moved SL to breakeven.
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  • #22
  • Jul 5, 2012 7:40am Jul 5, 2012 7:40am
Profit target reached and closed out.
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  • #23
  • Jul 6, 2012 8:48am Jul 6, 2012 8:48am
A nicely planned Journal, straight forward with no distractions..

Congratulations PB..

Ja..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #24
  • Jul 9, 2012 6:57am Jul 9, 2012 6:57am
Quoting j4d
A nicely planned Journal, straight forward with no distractions..

Congratulations PB..

Ja..
y thank you kind sir
  • #25
  • Jul 9, 2012 10:10pm Jul 9, 2012 10:10pm
Monthly - At previous resistance now may become support. June was a pretty Bullish looking bar. Seasonal Data supports a bottom in June historically.
Weekly - Convincing close above recent Weekly High forming the bottom
Daily - Price holding up above the breakout level.

Bar1 - Position opened as shown [email protected] [email protected] [email protected](currently)

Plenty of upside potential will look to buy hold this for a while buy trailing up my SL based on PA.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #26
  • Jul 15, 2012 10:01pm Jul 15, 2012 10:01pm
AUD/USD - [email protected] [email protected] (partial profits taken)
USD/MXN - [email protected] [email protected] (partial profits taken)
Cotton CTZ2 - [email protected] [email protected]
Heating Oil HOQ2 - [email protected] [email protected]
Attached Images
  • #27
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:37am Jul 16, 2012 5:37am
Hey MPB

Regarding the COT reports, how do you read the open interest against commercial, L speculators and small speculators etc ? or do I need to ?

Are you just looking at commercial Long/short percentages to give you some sort of bias "filter" ?

Thanks Ja..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #28
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:48am Jul 16, 2012 6:48am
Quoting j4d
Hey MPB

Regarding the COT reports, how do you read the open interest against commercial, L speculators and small speculators etc ? or do I need to ?

Are you just looking at commercial Long/short percentages to give you some sort of bias "filter" ?

Thanks Ja..
Hey Ja,

Yes you are correct.
One of the major triggers/setups I use is and Index of the Commercial net positions. Other 'supporting' factors I look at are:

- Seasonal Tendencies
- Open interest (buy low public/fund OI and sell high public/fund OI)
- Long and Short breakdowns of the Funds (or Large Traders)
- Common Sense

These 'supporting' factors do not make or break putting a trade on but they can make me feel more confident about doing so.

The worst thing I have done in the past is use the above guidelines to predict absolute bottoms, this has cost me a bit of money over the years. This is why PA is king.

If you wait for the best setup, then wait for the top/bottom to get put in and THEN join the party you can make more money and 'generally' have a higher win rate which helps the mental capital as well as the account.

Hope this helps Ja
  • #29
  • Jul 16, 2012 11:47am Jul 16, 2012 11:47am
Thanks for your help MPB.
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #30
  • Jul 19, 2012 12:23am Jul 19, 2012 12:23am
I am liking the look of this chart. Reasons below:
- COT positioning is extreme (index triggered 76week)
- Price looks like it may have carved out a bottom (higher lows, higher highs)
- Relatively low open interest over the last few months (typically bullish)

Bar1 - First close above recent Weekly High
Bar2 - First bar after Bar1 confirmation to have its high taken out (pin bar also) great trade in retrospect.

If we get a close above Bar4 (or ideally Bar3) then I will be looking to get long after a retracement.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: CopperFundCOT.png Size: 46 KB
  • #31
  • Jul 19, 2012 2:35pm Jul 19, 2012 2:35pm
Hey mypipbull,

Nice to see you holding on to your method. I wanted to ask you something that is unclear to me.

After you get a break of the previous weeks high, you wait for a signal to enter long and the first trade fails, say an inside bar. Price retraces back inside the weekly range and you get another signal to enter long.

Now, do you wait for another weekly break long/short, or do you take the second signal/trade long as though the initial weekly break/direction is still valid ?

In other words, how long is the break/direction still valid and how many times/signals do you attempt to enter ?

Cheers
  • #32
  • Edited Jul 20, 2012 2:43am Jul 19, 2012 9:15pm | Edited Jul 20, 2012 2:43am
Quoting mordre
Hey mypipbull,

Nice to see you holding on to your method. I wanted to ask you something that is unclear to me.

After you get a break of the previous weeks high, you wait for a signal to enter long and the first trade fails, say an inside bar. Price retraces back inside the weekly range and you get another signal to enter long.

Now, do you wait for another weekly break long/short, or do you take the second signal/trade long as though the initial weekly break/direction is still valid ?

In other words, how long is the break/direction still...
Hi Mordre,

Thanks for your comments / interest.....

Answers below:

how long is the break/direction still valid
It's easy to over complicate things like which Whigh to use etc. So think of it like this, when we get a Dclose above the Whigh, this simply validates that a bottom may be in. All that matters now is that the Low stays intact, this 'level' is not as important any more.
So now we are looking to buy pullbacks providing the recent low holds.

how many times/signals do you attempt to enter
In theory I would keep trying to enter until I am proved right (the trade gets underway) or until I am proved wrong (low taken out invalidating the bottom).
In reality after a couple of failed attempts I would sit on the side with a bullish outlook and look for an opportunity later.

I guess there is no definitive answer, common sense or logic must be used. You must read and rationalise the current price structure in front of you. It must 'look right'.

The potential Copper trade I am tracking atm is a classic example, I am just a bit late in getting involved in this trade as I missed a couple of previous good entries BUT that does not mean I should leave the trade alone. IMO there is still lots of upside potential so I re-use the basic resistance tools to guide me into another entry. Sometimes with trades you get one chance to hop on, other times you get lucky and get multiple. I hope this one is the later. The key point here is that the Low is still holding.

Did I even answer your question??? Hope it helps anyway....
  • #33
  • Jul 20, 2012 2:29am Jul 20, 2012 2:29am
Quoting mypipbull
I am liking the look of this chart. Reasons below:
- COT positioning is extreme (index triggered 76week)
- Price looks like it may have carved out a bottom (higher lows, higher highs)
- Relatively low open interest over the last few months (typically bullish)

Bar1 - First close above recent Weekly High
Bar2 - First bar after Bar1 confirmation to have its high taken out (pin bar also) great trade in retrospect.

If we get a close above Bar4 (or ideally Bar3) then I will be looking to get long after a retracement.
Bar5 - Closed above Bar4 high. Will consider getting long on a pullback.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20120720_Copper_D.png Size: 9 KB
  • #34
  • Jul 22, 2012 6:52am Jul 22, 2012 6:52am
AUD/USD - [email protected] [email protected] (partial profits taken)
USD/MXN - [email protected] [email protected] (partial profits taken)
Cotton CTZ2 - [email protected] [email protected]
Heating Oil HOQ2 - [email protected] [email protected]

No Stop Loss orders moved at the end of the week.
Attached Images
  • #35
  • Jul 23, 2012 8:04pm Jul 23, 2012 8:04pm
Quoting mypipbull
Bar5 - Closed above Bar4 high. Will consider getting long on a pullback.
Bar6 - Large pullback bar.
Bar7 - Another large pullback Bar. Creating a lower low of the July 10 low.

This price structure is looking bearish again. I am on the side for the moment.

Two possible actions for a Long now.

1) Aggressive - Buy on a very strong bullish bar closer to the absolute bottom we can see on June 4th.
2) Conservative - Wait for price to move about the Bar3 High and buy a dip.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #36
  • Jul 23, 2012 8:08pm Jul 23, 2012 8:08pm
Stop Orders hit. Profit made. Will not be looking to re-enter from here.
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  • #37
  • Jul 26, 2012 12:33am Jul 26, 2012 12:33am
Stop Loss hit on this trade. Still like it to the long side but will wait for clearer PA. Probably wait for it to break and hold the 75 level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #38
  • Jul 26, 2012 12:40am Jul 26, 2012 12:40am
Stop moved up below logical PA.
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  • #39
  • Jul 26, 2012 12:45am Jul 26, 2012 12:45am
Stop moved up ...and resistance become support....so far
Will be rolling this position over into the next contract month if I am still Long at the expiry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #40
  • Aug 5, 2012 9:03pm Aug 5, 2012 9:03pm
Been on holiday for a week so not a lot of action. Main positions still open, no new trades initiated.

LONG - AUD/USD
LONG - HeatingOil (HOU2)

Stops trailed up on both trades.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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