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AUD/USD

  • #51,081
  • Jul 25, 2012 5:42am Jul 25, 2012 5:42am
Very good point all,

The dollar will look to trade within its gap level I suspect we could see 1.03 and I do have a stop loss at 1.0315just in case as I mentioned earlier post.
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  • #51,082
  • Jul 25, 2012 6:19am Jul 25, 2012 6:19am
I'm in short now...

Dane...
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  • #51,083
  • Jul 25, 2012 6:20am Jul 25, 2012 6:20am
Might have been the top at least before NY.
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Don't get mad, get even!
  • #51,084
  • Jul 25, 2012 6:41am Jul 25, 2012 6:41am
Hi All,

This is very first post here..hope to hand around you gurus for long time tho..

I see res at 1.032 from 100SMA on 1HR chart. But then again things are looking better on H4..Anybody else agrees ?
Be the change that you want to change
  • #51,085
  • Jul 25, 2012 6:54am Jul 25, 2012 6:54am
Obviously if I get stopped out of my shorts here (1.0315) I will not look at this pair for a short until we reach 1.0330-20 Level for a possible H&S forming

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  • #51,086
  • Jul 25, 2012 6:58am Jul 25, 2012 6:58am
Quoting jplazard
Obviously if I get stopped out of my shorts here (1.0315) I will not look at this pair for a short until we reach 1.0330-20 Level for a possible H&S forming

Attachment
I agree with you....Wait
  • #51,087
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:15am Jul 25, 2012 7:15am
Quoting jeremyyn
i hope my long at 1.017 can get triggered in.
wow . woke up to see 100 + pips in on this last major entry.

Good luck to all those who made some green today.

I think the trend is still up. we are still making higher highs and higher lows. The trend is your friend.
  • #51,088
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:45am Jul 25, 2012 7:45am
Last short level @ 304 filled. Waiting now for the candle of the next hour. If it seems to turn green, i'll not wait my sl (326) to exit.
GL all.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #51,089
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:55am Jul 25, 2012 7:55am
Out of the Gold/Silver shorts. This so far has been the worst month I have ever had down 57K this month at the moment. I think I need to take a break coming up after this AUD short for the next week or two as I am too intensified on this upcoming bear move it's starting to affect TODAYS trading where PA is not showing a crash at the moment.

The moment I start arguing how ridiculous this move or moves are and the world is going insane thinking were at a place of growth is the moment I AM WRONG AND NEED TO BREAK.

Still short )/6A (AUD/USD) stop loss set at: 1.0315
Target:1.0220
  • #51,090
  • Jul 25, 2012 8:43am Jul 25, 2012 8:43am
Quoting jplazard
Out of the Gold/Silver shorts. This so far has been the worst month I have ever had down 57K this month at the moment. I think I need to take a break coming up after this AUD short for the next week or two as I am too intensified on this upcoming bear move it's starting to affect TODAYS trading where PA is not showing a crash at the moment.

The moment I start arguing how ridiculous this move or moves are and the world is going insane thinking were at a place of growth is the moment I AM WRONG AND NEED TO BREAK.

Still short )/6A (AUD/USD) stop...
A wrong first entry may affect subsequent entries, we all are blinded by it, i face such scenario too.

All 1 hour and 4 hour is bull on AUD.

My understanding towards AUD is, a bear will only come when a bear show up, during the point when AUD rised from 1.0300 into 1.0445. then limited a day in a tight range of 1.0395-1.0437, limited upside, then a bear show up, and take it down to 1.0365 and then into 1.0250 into 1.0175 this morning.

A bull show up again at 1.0177 bounce up above 1.0230 a bullish pin + BODY, showed clear sign of reversal from there. That's why i only ride on 5 minute stoch value 0-20 buy on uptrend.

You still have your chance, it us session, we never know. 1.03157 ytd high area. stop can place after that, as it will break resistance and spike higher.

given today is wedneday, 3 x swaps, i personally won't wants to short at this level unless given a tight stop.
  • #51,091
  • Jul 25, 2012 8:48am Jul 25, 2012 8:48am
5percent.

Great points I was watching /DX trade to the gap level from Friday and AUD/USD was still at 1.0280 it was beyond moronic for me to not close out now and wait for a pop on US open to get in at better prices. This month has not been my best as I have looked at previous post I have made and the dollar call was correct but I lost on it because I wanted more same with AU. We will see how this trades and possibly US will bring us back down to 1.0260 at least.
  • #51,092
  • Jul 25, 2012 8:51am Jul 25, 2012 8:51am
it looks like the US dumping festival/session has begin. 10 more mins for clear direction.
  • #51,093
  • Jul 25, 2012 1:03pm Jul 25, 2012 1:03pm
Going SHORT
Open Target - Stop loss just above Today's High

http://i.imgur.com/Ey5qB.png
  • #51,094
  • Jul 25, 2012 1:52pm Jul 25, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting mrbandwidth
inverted h&s at 10min

theorical target: ~ 300
Shazzan!

http://www.comics.com.ve/infografias/567/image1.jpg

Another one:

inverted h&s @ 1H

Theorical target: ~430
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #51,095
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:34pm Jul 25, 2012 7:34pm
Quoting Compulsive
Going SHORT
Open Target - Stop loss just above Today's High

http://i.imgur.com/Ey5qB.png
Decided to close the trade at 1.02982 based on RSI having support as well - FLAT
  • #51,096
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:46pm Jul 25, 2012 7:46pm
Quoting jplazard
Out of the Gold/Silver shorts. This so far has been the worst month I have ever had down 57K this month at the moment. I think I need to take a break coming up after this AUD short for the next week or two as I am too intensified on this upcoming bear move it's starting to affect TODAYS trading where PA is not showing a crash at the moment.

The moment I start arguing how ridiculous this move or moves are and the world is going insane thinking were at a place of growth is the moment I AM WRONG AND NEED TO BREAK.

Still short )/6A (AUD/USD) stop...
not sure how you do your analysis but you may need to go back to the drawing board...market is moving via stops, if they are in vicinity they will be hunted. These moves are the market which is always evolving, I hate metals too because too much stop hunting before the move. Its just a mindset to trade differently when trading gold. Anyways if you don't evolve you will be eaten.
  • #51,097
  • Jul 25, 2012 8:34pm Jul 25, 2012 8:34pm
Quoting jplazard
Out of the Gold/Silver shorts. This so far has been the worst month I have ever had down 57K this month at the moment. I think I need to take a break coming up after this AUD short for the next week or two as I am too intensified on this upcoming bear move it's starting to affect TODAYS trading where PA is not showing a crash at the moment.

The moment I start arguing how ridiculous this move or moves are and the world is going insane thinking were at a place of growth is the moment I AM WRONG AND NEED TO BREAK.

Still short )/6A (AUD/USD)...
Aud looks like it's going nowhere but up right now. We bounced off the trend line and market flow is up right across the board on 1HR/4HR/Daily
  • #51,098
  • Jul 25, 2012 9:56pm Jul 25, 2012 9:56pm
Quoting sidhujag
not sure how you do your analysis but you may need to go back to the drawing board...market is moving via stops, if they are in vicinity they will be hunted. These moves are the market which is always evolving, I hate metals too because too much stop hunting before the move. Its just a mindset to trade differently when trading gold. Anyways if you don't evolve you will be eaten.
i agreed, previously moving average is quite a tool to use. Now not anymore, just is just to spot the trading hours and identified where are the possible stops. Market is driven more by buy sell stops now, it's quicker, more liquid and it's the trend compared to limits.

That's one reason i never use limits anymore, no such thing as low or lower or high or too high. Market can propel, recharge, come back recharge, and follow down or hop up like a grasshopper through the smaller tf like 1-5-15.

The area 1.0265 from the drop from 1.0300 was where 15min stoch is at low value, and it hop again from there, resulting in a trendline on min 15min chart.

given a wednesday, no one really wish to hold a short at those region unless those of earlier 1.0415-45, but given the fact 1.0177 was reached, if they don't tp most of their % there, they are giving away too much probability.

playing gold is like playing a stop game, it spike up or spike down, use a small stop and a good rr.
  • #51,099
  • Jul 25, 2012 10:21pm Jul 25, 2012 10:21pm
Quoting jplazard
Out of the Gold/Silver shorts. This so far has been the worst month ....................

The moment I start arguing how ridiculous this move or moves are and the world is going insane thinking were at a place of growth is the moment I AM WRONG AND NEED TO BREAK.

Still short )/6A (AUD/USD) stop loss set at: 1.0315
Target:1.0220
So far this year, I have tried to avoid any directional bias on AUD. Whenever I start convincing myself that this pair is either bull or bear, it beats me up and a lot of the time will do the opposite of fundamental understandings. I don't like to trade during major announcements and find days like today, quite predictable. When I'm not in a trade, I spend time fine tuning trend lines and levels. Looking for patterns that I may have missed. I usually watch at least 3 time frames, a 4 hr, 15 min, and 5 min.At times even a 2 min when placing an entry.

I have had my best success just trading the price action. Taking trades at technical pressure points, trend lines, previous highs/lows and watching candle patterns overlaid with Fib retracement. The 125 and 200 SMA on a five min chart, also provides some interesting illumination at times as does Stochastic and MACDs.

I don't take every pressure point or every level, just the ones that set up with the best possibility, based on the price action that came before it. Plus, I would rather miss a trade than to enter a bad one.

I don't mind taking small bites out of the market and have had consistent positives in the 10 to 50 pip range,.. a few break even trades ( since I move stop loss to BE as soon as a trade heads in my favour which is usually shortly after entry) and thankfully this month only a couple of small losses since changing to the current mind set.

Because I am trying to precisely place trades, I seldom use more than a 10 pip SL which allows me to trade medium to large lot sizes with very small risks.

Trading for 10 pips with 1 lot is worth around $100 and is multiplied by additional lots.

There is always a best time of day for us to trade and we have to figure out when that is. For me that's usually during the mid Asian session after watching for the first couple of hours or the beginning of London when I have a feel for the tone of the days market.

Wishing everyone a profitable trading week!
  • #51,100
  • Jul 25, 2012 10:32pm Jul 25, 2012 10:32pm
i remembered somewhere around month may, after cash rate cut from 4.25 into 3.75 i think. AUD plunged from 1.04

then euro crisis strikes in.

i enter buy on 1.02 area and 1.01 and it never return ! lol. that's when i got burned 200 pips for the first time on AUD. but also when i got to learn about this stubborn currency.

As before, aud was bullish bias into 1.08 and slipped down from 1.06 into 1.02 1.01, i thought it was good area, but who knows 0.95 0.96 again!

stay neutral on bull bear is the best way to trade.
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