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AUD/USD

  • #51,061
  • Jul 25, 2012 12:00am Jul 25, 2012 12:00am
I got out before the news earlier. I'd like to see a pullback before London and then go long.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #51,062
  • Jul 25, 2012 12:17am Jul 25, 2012 12:17am
Quoting MidasFX
Wouldn't be surprised to see a temp reversal later this week Back up to 1.0300+ levels. At these current levels, i'm sidelined to see if we get another leg down first. With AU i will always favor the down side because almost every week i see someone or some bank saying that aussie is the most overvalued currency in the world.
as far as i know they saying it last 2 years, pa in no man land waiting for london
Mohan
  • #51,063
  • Jul 25, 2012 12:56am Jul 25, 2012 12:56am
We've tested the previous 4 hour low. Carry on South or turn around.....
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #51,064
  • Jul 25, 2012 1:15am Jul 25, 2012 1:15am
Quoting mohan76
as far as i know they saying it last 2 years, pa in no man land waiting for london
I think i have heard that aussie is overvalued ever since its been above parity. And as far as listening to banks sharing trading signals, i Never listen. But when you have an overall consensus saying "overvalued" you would be fighting the market to beleive otherwise.
  • #51,065
  • Jul 25, 2012 1:54am Jul 25, 2012 1:54am
If you live near the USA all the talk is about QE3. However, I think QE3 would yield diminishing returns. From my sources the market place has priced in somewhat of a fed reserve reaction like QE3. So if there is word some day SOON that the Ben team will not print money then given the present downward spiral in the Eurozone and its gravitational pull on the rest of the world and that China keeps underperforming means to me the Aussie is overvalued. It is also propped up as many hedge funds are sellers of EURAUD.

Comparison wise the Euro and Pound have retraced the lows of June 1. AUDUSD has not!

Dear Ben - please do not print more money and debase the currency even more. By the way, today the IMF said enough is enough to Greece. Finally.
  • #51,066
  • Jul 25, 2012 2:18am Jul 25, 2012 2:18am
Hello all,

Yesterday I am glad I went out as I anticipated a range day good thing for the shorts Troika is saying further restructuring is needed sending everything lower. I just closed out my Short AUD as I am not certain what the EUR spike is about and I called around and people are scrambling also to find out. Tonight I will look at more charts as I think we are going to have a very awful month in Aug the charts are setting up like former patterns set in '10. I will post some charts and analysis more this week showing similarities why we are going to have another month Like May.

For those of you looking for that bug Market wizards type trade we could be approaching the month to do it. BBsoon
  • #51,067
  • Jul 25, 2012 2:20am Jul 25, 2012 2:20am
On my mobile excuse the misspellings*
  • #51,068
  • Jul 25, 2012 2:20am Jul 25, 2012 2:20am
Quoting MidasFX
I think i have heard that aussie is overvalued ever since its been above parity. And as far as listening to banks sharing trading signals, i Never listen. But when you have an overall consensus saying "overvalued" you would be fighting the market to beleive otherwise.
They've also been saying for 20 odd years that the USD is undervalued!

Don't hold your breath on that one.

Ironically, I believe them both HA!



  • #51,069
  • Jul 25, 2012 3:04am Jul 25, 2012 3:04am
Selling Limit AUD/USD @
1.0260/.0250 & 1.0280
Sell stop at 1.0238 Target 1.0165 I would say we trade to this level near US closing

Anyone looking at ES, PA, PL, HG and AU knows were only one 'severe headline' away from a move lower and Visa versa.

With Spanish 2,5,10 above 7% and climbing and Spain still balking at a bailout we will only climb higher.
  • #51,070
  • Jul 25, 2012 3:08am Jul 25, 2012 3:08am
Stop Loss on all shorts at 1.0315 as we would trade substantially higher if the following happens

1. If Spain's bond yield curve inverts, it is doomed - unless ECB or EFSF start buying its debt. Even then, bailout only a matter of time
  • #51,071
  • Jul 25, 2012 3:30am Jul 25, 2012 3:30am
inverted h&s at 10min

theorical target: ~ 300
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #51,072
  • Jul 25, 2012 3:39am Jul 25, 2012 3:39am
I am hoping to get filled at 1.0280 level so by the NY open when we are topping on this move we will first see a move back to 1.0220 as this spike was all about EUR and nothing to do on AUD part.
  • #51,073
  • Jul 25, 2012 3:59am Jul 25, 2012 3:59am
Just looking at Dollar and its still stubborn trading around 88.6% looking at a possibly downside level between 88.6%-78.6% where it could trade US session. This will bode well for my AU Limit order sitting at 1.0280 as we could pop to that level if this plays out. I don't expect a major move down on Dollar this week like last week unless as mentioned earlier (Spanish bail/ ECB bond buy)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #51,074
  • Jul 25, 2012 4:51am Jul 25, 2012 4:51am
Last limit order filled at 1.0280 (short -7C)
Target
1: 1.0220
2:1.0165

I don't think on the extreme we will see 0165 today but 0220 is very plausible I will let NY do its thing of selling into into the first 2hours of the open and we come back to London open levels.
  • #51,075
  • Jul 25, 2012 4:59am Jul 25, 2012 4:59am
Quoting jplazard
Last limit order filled at 1.0280 (short -7C)
Target
1: 1.0220
2:1.0165

I don't think on the extreme we will see 0165 today but 0220 is very plausible I will let NY do its thing of selling into into the first 2hours of the open and we come back to London open levels.
I am seeing the contrary, AUD on 4 hour is still consider to bounce off on the so called trend line.
Data was alright though lower than expected, AUD is doing much better than US and EUR at the moment given such period. AUD is also the current reserve currency CHINA, RUSSIA and etc are keeping for, it have better carry trades swap, and fundamentally its more sound.

AUD is behaving the way it behave last week wednesday or even thursday, it just keep propelling higher. Today's is 3x swap if you were to sell at this level and hold. I am not saying it cannot go down, just not favorable.

I don't deny the fact that US session is always selling and dumping, as it get very fundamental and panic strikes in.

But sentiment has begin to change, as we see EUR going higher. Gold giving the first sign as it approaches 1600 again.

We may see some moderation of this level into a middle zone before the us session. probably 1.0240-70 range. But its still bouncing to move higher as i see it on minute 5 and stoch.
  • #51,076
  • Jul 25, 2012 5:03am Jul 25, 2012 5:03am
Quoting jplazard
Last limit order filled at 1.0280 (short -7C)
Target
1: 1.0220
2:1.0165

I don't think on the extreme we will see 0165 today but 0220 is very plausible I will let NY do its thing of selling into into the first 2hours of the open and we come back to London open levels.
Filled at 1.02851 right at 200h EMA. Worried about the SPI heading back to 4100 again tho. The upside might have not been fully exhausted yet.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't get mad, get even!
  • #51,077
  • Jul 25, 2012 5:08am Jul 25, 2012 5:08am
my thoughts exactly, I might add the US dollar index might close it's gap from a few days ago...

Dane....


Quoting 5percent
I am seeing the contrary, AUD on 4 hour is still consider to bounce off on the so called trend line.
Data was alright though lower than expected, AUD is doing much better than US and EUR at the moment given such period. AUD is also the current reserve currency CHINA, RUSSIA and etc are keeping for, it have better carry trades swap, and fundamentally its more sound.

AUD is behaving the way it behave last week wednesday or even thursday, it just keep propelling higher. Today's is 3x swap if you were to sell at this level and hold. I am not saying...
  • #51,078
  • Jul 25, 2012 5:24am Jul 25, 2012 5:24am
M5 channel respected.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't get mad, get even!
  • #51,079
  • Jul 25, 2012 5:33am Jul 25, 2012 5:33am
I totally agree with both of you right now at the moment fundamentals support AUD compared to the US/EUROPE but were talking about numbers that are highly distorted from China. Just this Melbourne closed down two of the bigger auto part factories (119jobs) not so much but also ford Australian unit just 440 jobs last week. These will add up very soon and will make its way into the reports the following months.

I am a trader not a conspirator and price is truth so I won't argue with the demand AUD is experiencing compared to Euro/GBP. Dollar and AUD are neck and neck for performance since the 6/1 bottom.

I know my posting charts look plain but behind all of this I have a NN constantly running Correlation Coefficient Readings for various time frames, CME daily settlements of Currency futures and several other prop items that give possible direction for several timeframes.

I agree with both of you that we could extend a little more to the up side .0280-90 area but for us to trade above 1.03 and stay there you would have to see a significant divergance or lower reading on correlation at this time from ES, DX , AUD/USD

The chart below is pretty simple compared to the box I run where it computes readings in real time basis or monthly depending on the trade idea (the trend lines are not perfect this is an outline of what the trend is) We are trading at a critical level on Dollar at the moment and have been range bound on it since the Sunday open. we could see some fireworks soon on the downside in ES AUD and Dollar taking off.

What levels for the extension higher are you guys noticing for NY open?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #51,080
  • Jul 25, 2012 5:41am Jul 25, 2012 5:41am
I'm waiting for 304 to short it. May be, I'll not get it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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