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Quick and Dirty EOD

  • #221
  • Jul 23, 2012 12:10pm Jul 23, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting spyderman
Sorry I'm still fuzzy on the entry. If you take the entry after the close of your bearish candle (I'm assuming this is a monthly uptrend) how do you know if the retracement is done. It seems like a random (albeit end of day) entry. I believe Hugh's idea was that we get this retracement (bearish daily candle in a monthly uptrend) which sets a resistance point.
Resuming the uptrend and breaking that resistance is a signal of continued upside pressure.

Can't argue with your backtest results, I'm just trying to follow the logic of the entry. ...
You are correct, I don't know if the retracement is done. I was just trying to find a way to get an entry that would have a smaller stop loss than what I have found in my backtest of this system based on Hugh's rules. I was thinking of using the EA that Hugh uses so that an entry could be made at a fib retracement level, but then I thought that the signal candle itself is a pullback (albeit a crude method of determining a pullback). So I decided to give it a test to see if it may be worth it, and it looks like it is. I have never posted charts before, so I will need to figure that out so I can show everyone the entries and stops so there will be no confusion. I'm demo testing this on 18 pairs and it's so far profitable. We have had some good trends lately. When it starts ranging, that's when the losses start adding up. I'm hoping that since the losses are smaller that it won't have that big of an effect on the account. More testing needs to be done.
  • #222
  • Jul 23, 2012 12:21pm Jul 23, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting Wendavol
We have had some good trends lately. When it starts ranging, that's when the losses start adding up.

I hear ya on the ranging. I've had some huge retracements on another strategy today. Wiped out about 2500 pips of floating profit. Thankfully most was at BE but still discouraging.

That's one adavantage to the bigger stops. If its a smallish retracement you can ride it out. If not however...
  • #223
  • Jul 23, 2012 12:39pm Jul 23, 2012 12:39pm
One good thing about these retracements today. We're going to have a lot of pending orders going into tomorrow. Could be an awesome week.
  • #224
  • Jul 23, 2012 1:10pm Jul 23, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting spyderman
One good thing about these retracements today. We're going to have a lot of pending orders going into tomorrow. Could be an awesome week.
Agreed.

I have read all the posts above but will have to answer later. Thanks to all for the contributions to the thread. I think we're really cooking on gas now with some new ideas coming in!
  • #225
  • Jul 23, 2012 1:50pm Jul 23, 2012 1:50pm
Here's a monthly that has pulled back per the approach I mentioned above on the daily. I personally treat setups like this on Monthly and Weekly as a bias for my shorter time frame approaches, much like you mentioned on your first page. It can be extremely profitable when you know there's a good chance of 500+ pips in the next month or two. Taking nibbles on these on the daily down to the hourly can secure several positions at break even.
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  • #226
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:23pm Jul 23, 2012 3:23pm
Quoting Jcp
Great, here's a really quick chart. I scan about 25 pairs daily. I highlighted the areas I would normally enter, and noted a few of my parameters.
I see what you are doing, slightly different but similar. I have thought about taking these trades and letting them run but a 200 pips take profit makes sense to me as well. I need more time to backtest all approaches.
  • #227
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:25pm Jul 23, 2012 3:25pm
Quoting Wendavol
You are correct, I don't know if the retracement is done. I was just trying to find a way to get an entry that would have a smaller stop loss than what I have found in my backtest of this system based on Hugh's rules. I was thinking of using the EA that Hugh uses so that an entry could be made at a fib retracement level, but then I thought that the signal candle itself is a pullback (albeit a crude method of determining a pullback). So I decided to give it a test to see if it may be worth it, and it looks like it is. I have never posted charts before,...
Definitely worth testing the idea out. I am a bit concerned that it seems to be a lower probability entry but you would possibly be able to shot for more pips.
  • #228
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:26pm Jul 23, 2012 3:26pm
Quoting Jcp
Here's a monthly that has pulled back per the approach I mentioned above on the daily. I personally treat setups like this on Monthly and Weekly as a bias for my shorter time frame approaches, much like you mentioned on your first page. It can be extremely profitable when you know there's a good chance of 500+ pips in the next month or two. Taking nibbles on these on the daily down to the hourly can secure several positions at break even.
Good one, I like these ideas.
  • #229
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:42pm Jul 23, 2012 3:42pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
I see what you are doing, slightly different but similar. I have thought about taking these trades and letting them run but a 200 pips take profit makes sense to me as well. I need more time to backtest all approaches.
Could start trailing at 200 pips. That way if she really takes off you can go along for the ride. Or close 1/2 at 200 and ride the rest.

I have a trade management EA that lets me trail after so many, blah, blah, blah. I might try that out.
  • #230
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:53pm Jul 23, 2012 3:53pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Definitely worth testing the idea out. I am a bit concerned that it seems to be a lower probability entry but you would possibly be able to shot for more pips.
It really does work, and is something I've been successful at trading for some time now and it really is just one of the many ways to enter a trend successfully. I believe at the end of the day, many of these versions will produce similar results. What gives me my edge is getting my SL to break even as quick as possible. This results in many missed opportunities, but there are plenty of other opportunities. If price goes against me right away, it usually comes back to my entry point within a couple of days and gives me an opportunity to get out at break even before hitting my stop.

So essentially my goal is not to take a loss, the winners seem to work themselves out, and when price ultimately reverses after a long haul, it's a good signal to either add a position in the opposing direction or close out for a profit. I also place most of my entries only near a fresh crossover, I try and avoid entering if price has made a big move for a few weeks or more.
  • #231
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:58pm Jul 23, 2012 3:58pm
Quoting Jcp
I also place most of my entries only near a fresh crossover, I try and avoid entering if price has made a big move for a few weeks or more.
Waiting for a fresh trend is a good idea. Maybe it would be a good idea to use this entry method and get 2 or 3 trades to break even at the start of the trend and then use the 5/8 ema cross against the trend for the exit?
  • #232
  • Jul 23, 2012 4:00pm Jul 23, 2012 4:00pm
Quoting spyderman
Or close 1/2 at 200 and ride the rest.
Never ever ever. I don't take partial losses so I will never take a partial gain either. If you ever feel like taking half off add another entry!
  • #233
  • Jul 23, 2012 4:01pm Jul 23, 2012 4:01pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Waiting for a fresh trend is a good idea. Maybe it would be a good idea to use this entry method and get 2 or 3 trades to break even at the start of the trend and then use the 5/8 ema cross against the trend for the exit?
Yup, exactly. I believe this is the best approach, at least for me and my style. It maximizes potential, and is much easier to manage. The hardest part is self control, and managing the feeling of missing out on some opportunities.
  • #234
  • Jul 23, 2012 4:06pm Jul 23, 2012 4:06pm
Quoting Jcp
Yup, exactly. I believe this is the best approach, at least for me and my style. It maximizes potential, and is much easier to manage. The hardest part is self control, and managing the feeling of missing out on some opportunities.
I like the fact that there are plenty of opportunities available though. It seems that most days there is one pair or another setting up. These days I have no trouble with small losses and missed trades, part of the game.
  • #235
  • Jul 23, 2012 4:12pm Jul 23, 2012 4:12pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
I like the fact that there are plenty of opportunities available though. It seems that most days there is one pair or another setting up. These days I have no trouble with small losses and missed trades, part of the game.
Yes, and then you mix in Weekly charts and there's whole other world of opportunities, plus they are more reliable.

Good to hear you okay with the missed trades, it took me a VERY long time to get my head right when it comes to that.
  • #236
  • Jul 23, 2012 5:02pm Jul 23, 2012 5:02pm
Quoting spyderman
Where do you put the stop if the signal candle closes at or near the high/low
Since the backtesting was not discretionary and was just mechanical, I have had small stops. One was just 7.3 pips. I know that is very small for a daily strategy but some of those trades with small stops went on to hit the 200 pip take profit.
  • #237
  • Jul 23, 2012 5:21pm Jul 23, 2012 5:21pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Definitely worth testing the idea out. I am a bit concerned that it seems to be a lower probability entry but you would possibly be able to shot for more pips.
20 out of 82 trades were profitable so that makes it a 24.4% win rate. Biggest losing streak was 16 trades. Biggest winning streak was 3 trades which happened two times. So it is far from perfect but appears profitable. Perhaps moving to breakeven after being up 100 pips or so might increase profitability, I have had losers in the testing that were up quite a bit before turning back for a loss. I might also change the 200 pip take profit to a multiple of the 20 day ATR, this would make the system translate better across different currency pairs. There's a lot more testing to do, too bad I don't know programming because the backtesting might go faster. I've been doing it manually which takes up a good chunk of time, but it seems to be worth it.
  • #238
  • Jul 23, 2012 6:41pm Jul 23, 2012 6:41pm
Quoting spyderman
Sorry, I'm not following. I get your idea about converting the monthly PA to the daily. That's why I have those two larger ema's on my daily chart, they represent the monthly (be careful though, there's only 21 or 22 daily bars in a month, not 30).

But I'm not following the hourly setup you're using. There's no "pullback" to the yellow (that I'm aware of). We're simply looking for a daily bar that closes in the opposite direction of the daily/monthly trend, and then placing a stop order below/above that bar. (Or a possible refinement being discussed...
What are the settings for the larger emas you are using on your chart?
  • #239
  • Jul 23, 2012 8:34pm Jul 23, 2012 8:34pm
Quoting prof8t
What are the settings for the larger emas you are using on your chart?

You can convert it manually multiplying the 5 & 8 daily by 21 or 22 respectively, but I found that it comes out a bit different from the actual 5 & 8 on the monthly chart.

So I found this MTF Moving average indicator that I use. Just place it on the daily, set the TF (in hours) that you want it to read (43200 for the monthly and set the type and method and your set.

Here's my input screens and indicator.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5 ema copy.jpg Size: 217 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 8 ema copy.jpg Size: 197 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 #MTF Moving Average.ex4   6 KB | 353 downloads
File Type: mq4 #MTF Moving Average.mq4   5 KB | 391 downloads
  • #240
  • Jul 23, 2012 9:26pm Jul 23, 2012 9:26pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
. You know it won't always be this easy don't you?

Yes HB , i agree with you but for me first time in my forex i see +300 pips in one day.
and from last whole week i see the +pips...
great and simple but effective system.

thanks.
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