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  • #461
  • Jul 23, 2012 7:47am Jul 23, 2012 7:47am
Quoting petehnm
S3 on my 4hr chart is about to be tested....S3=1.0256... leaving way to S4=1.0187......let's see what happens...if it stays here in these areas tonight china report if negative could send this down a bit further.....IMHO..
I doubt about the probability of dropping further after China news tonight. -IMHO-
daddybearforex. com
  • #462
  • Jul 23, 2012 7:50am Jul 23, 2012 7:50am
Quoting petehnm
by the way good morning everyone....
good afternoon from england
  • #463
  • Jul 23, 2012 7:52am Jul 23, 2012 7:52am
Quoting DaddyBear
I doubt about the probability of dropping further after China news tonight. -IMHO-

Interesting...thanks...
  • #464
  • Jul 23, 2012 7:54am Jul 23, 2012 7:54am
Quoting supertubes
That would be nice my horts are still open
Doctors can fix open horts - but it means you will need open hort surgery....

Good evening from Beijing. Been a wonderful day picking up all those wonderful pips
  • #465
  • Jul 23, 2012 7:58am Jul 23, 2012 7:58am
Quoting pauladkinsau
Doctors can fix open horts - but it means you will need open hort surgery....

Good evening from Beijing. Been a wonderful day picking up all those wonderful pips


LOL....good one....good afternoon and evening gentlemen...morning here in New Mexico
  • #466
  • Jul 23, 2012 7:59am Jul 23, 2012 7:59am
Quoting pauladkinsau
Doctors can fix open horts - but it means you will need open hort surgery....

Good evening from Beijing. Been a wonderful day picking up all those wonderful pips
and good evening to you also
  • #467
  • Jul 23, 2012 8:10am Jul 23, 2012 8:10am
Quoting DaddyBear
I doubt about the probability of dropping further after China news tonight. -IMHO-
My rationale behind my previous post is like this:

A time for the sunset.
A time for the sunrise.
The Sun will rise again regardless of how dark it is now. -IMHO-
daddybearforex. com
  • #468
  • Jul 23, 2012 8:11am Jul 23, 2012 8:11am
Quoting supertubes
good afternoon from england
Good morning from NY.
daddybearforex. com
  • #469
  • Jul 23, 2012 8:13am Jul 23, 2012 8:13am
My totally uneducated guess is that tomorrow's HSBC PMI flash will be in the 48's. The only thing going for manufacturing has been some release of capital via interest rate drops, some additional credit facilities and some minor infrastructure projects.

Trouble for the extra capital availability is that without orders, factories don't need the money. Things have been very quiet here in China the last several weeks. (Though I suspect there will be an injection of cash to fix our sewer system and improve drainage around the place here in Beijing - Saturday's rain storms were amazing - worse than any tropical storm I have seen. If you get a chance, check out the photos.)

Consequence for the Aussie is a likely drop, but then some idiots will start thinking that Wen Jia Bao and his crew are going to come out with their cheque books. The suspicion/hope for such a move will put a bounce into place - days or weeks later the punters will realise that Wen and co aren't about to write the big fat cheques of 3-4 years ago.

Besides, Wen and Hu and most of the senior leaders are currently in Beihaide, the Communist Party's summer retreat. When you are steering a ship of state that's a whole lot bigger than the Queen Mary, a data point or two isn't going to change anything. Though the market won't understand that.
  • #470
  • Jul 23, 2012 8:16am Jul 23, 2012 8:16am
Quoting DaddyBear
My rationale behind my previous post is like this:

A time for the sunset.
A time for the sunrise.
The Sun will rise again regardless of how dark it is now. -IMHO-

Nice and green wake-up. Good morning to all!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pebblesbear.JPG Size: 70 KB
  • #471
  • Jul 23, 2012 8:25am Jul 23, 2012 8:25am
Quoting pauladkinsau
My totally uneducated guess is that tomorrow's HSBC PMI flash will be in the 48's. The only thing going for manufacturing has been some release of capital via interest rate drops, some additional credit facilities and some minor infrastructure projects.

Trouble for the extra capital availability is that without orders, factories don't need the money. Things have been very quiet here in China the last several weeks. (Though I suspect there will be an injection of cash to fix our sewer system and improve drainage around the place here in Beijing...
Very good analysis about the China's current economy reality. While some Aussie bulls kept saying that China will need more coal and iron ore from Australia, they had no in-depth knowledge about China the way you analized. This led them to a one-way bullish street.

My point coincides with your view that a bounce will driven by those
"idiots". But, this is exactly how the market works.
daddybearforex. com
  • #472
  • Jul 23, 2012 8:27am Jul 23, 2012 8:27am
Quoting pauladkinsau
My totally uneducated guess is that tomorrow's HSBC PMI flash will be in the 48's. The only thing going for manufacturing has been some release of capital via interest rate drops, some additional credit facilities and some minor infrastructure projects.

Trouble for the extra capital availability is that without orders, factories don't need the money. Things have been very quiet here in China the last several weeks. (Though I suspect there will be an injection of cash to fix our sewer system and improve drainage around the place here in...
thanks pauladkinsau...uneducated guess or not it's good to hear a point of view from someone in country....sometimes it's hard to understand just how big China really is and how the numbers are related to the countries size...
  • #473
  • Jul 23, 2012 8:27am Jul 23, 2012 8:27am
Quoting doblece
Nice and green wake-up. Good morning to all!

Attachment
doblece, is she your granddaughter? Sooooooo adorable! Let Papa kiss you.
daddybearforex. com
  • #474
  • Edited 8:44am Jul 23, 2012 8:33am | Edited 8:44am
Quoting doblece
Expecting Bulls and Bears to do some fandango (sideways) around 1.0310 which for me has been acting as a clue turning point since 2011.

And I'd rather stop at 1.0233, just above the 61.8 retracement.
But if 1.0183 breaks down, parity is back on the lines.

(Note: this is only my point of view and in no way a trading recommendation.)
I expect Bulls and Bears to do some fandango (sideways) around 1.02500 again. Then, they will change to Samba soon!
daddybearforex. com
  • #475
  • Jul 23, 2012 8:42am Jul 23, 2012 8:42am
Quoting DaddyBear
doblece, is she your granddaughter? Sooooooo adorable! Let Papa kiss you.
doblece, please accept my apology that I mistakenly called you a man with wisdom. I guess it's time for me to see my eye doctor. But, hey, you know it is very hard to distinguish a woman from a man nowadays.
daddybearforex. com
  • #476
  • Jul 23, 2012 9:09am Jul 23, 2012 9:09am
everything is beeing sold against dollar...snp is dead cat without bounce, aussie looks like want to go to my next level 0205.

yet, ucad is at one nice resistance which i reckon it will provide a pullback, and ucad being counter corrolated with aussie, we might see a stop and bounce here too.

let's see! out for a swim
fokyou forexfactory
  • #477
  • Jul 23, 2012 9:39am Jul 23, 2012 9:39am
us dollar has found it's resistance at 84.00, let's see if it would break the number, or shall we call it a day
  • #478
  • Jul 23, 2012 9:40am Jul 23, 2012 9:40am
Quoting DaddyBear
doblece,

Wake up and see Aussie is moving along the path inside my red bear. As she is approaching the tail of the red bear, I can now locate the time better if she ever reach there.

The updated arriving time could be around 10 PM, EST, July 23, 2012.
-IMHO-
The arriving time has been moved up to around 9 PM, EST, July 23, 2012.
-IMHO-

(Note: this is only my point of view and in no way a trading recommendation.)
daddybearforex. com
  • #479
  • Jul 23, 2012 9:44am Jul 23, 2012 9:44am
next possible target?

1.0230?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #480
  • Jul 23, 2012 9:44am Jul 23, 2012 9:44am
Quoting DaddyBear
The arriving time has been moved up to around 9 PM, EST, July 23, 2012.
-IMHO-

(Note: this is only my point of view and in no way a trading recommendation.)

just curious papa are you talking about the 1.0180 tail....
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