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Quick and Dirty EOD

  • #181
  • Jul 20, 2012 7:17am Jul 20, 2012 7:17am
Quoting umpats
Hi HB,

First time in my forex exp. i am +200 pips in one week .
Glad to hear it, let's see how next week goes.
  • #182
  • Jul 20, 2012 7:25am Jul 20, 2012 7:25am
Hi HB,

Just now i closed all with +350 pips.... amazing within last 2 hour +150 pips...
thanks HB.
  • #183
  • Jul 20, 2012 9:54am Jul 20, 2012 9:54am
Quoting umpats
Hi HB,

Just now i closed all with +350 pips.... amazing within last 2 hour +150 pips...
thanks HB.
No worries, good trading.
  • #184
  • Jul 21, 2012 9:43am Jul 21, 2012 9:43am
Any thoughts on moving SL to BE after 50 pips or so to protect equity?

I understand the concept of not trading all the correlated pairs because of risk, but what if we only trade another correlated pair only if SL is move to BE on your first trade before you take another, this will help minimize risk.

I believe it would be advantageous to this strategy to have a solid money management system.

My thoughts,

Kind Regards,
  • #185
  • Jul 21, 2012 1:01pm Jul 21, 2012 1:01pm
I just finished reading the thread and it is a great simple system, Thank's HB.
on a side note have you begun to solidify the rules now that there is some history and tweaks to the method?
  • #186
  • Jul 21, 2012 1:29pm Jul 21, 2012 1:29pm
Quoting Fx_Pipin
Any thoughts on moving SL to BE after 50 pips or so to protect equity?

I understand the concept of not trading all the correlated pairs because of risk, but what if we only trade another correlated pair only if SL is move to BE on your first trade before you take another, this will help minimize risk.

I believe it would be advantageous to this strategy to have a solid money management system.

My thoughts,

Kind Regards,
Sometimes getting to break even can actually be detrimental to your profitability. You will take more losers by letting your trades either hit the stop or the take profit but you will never be stopped out at break even on a trade that would have ultimately been profitable. I suppose it is a personal psychology thing. These days I am happier to let a trade run and accept the loss if that's what happens. By all means move to break even if it makes sense to you and your market beliefs.
  • #187
  • Jul 21, 2012 1:32pm Jul 21, 2012 1:32pm
Quoting tradestar1
I just finished reading the thread and it is a great simple system, Thank's HB.
on a side note have you begun to solidify the rules now that there is some history and tweaks to the method?
The short answer is no, not completely finalised the rules but I believe we have a solid foundation. Good to have a trader of your calibre see some merit in it though!
  • #188
  • Edited 6:08pm Jul 21, 2012 3:42pm | Edited 6:08pm
Thank you for the kind word's HB...
I use a similar method to add to my longer term trend positions so I see the value here....

You have always been a great contributor and I have followed a lot of your contributions.... Keep up the great work.
  • #189
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:24pm Jul 22, 2012 5:24pm
Hugh -
Quite some time ago you told me, on another thread of yours I believe, that your broker's EOD was late afternoon or early evening. If that is still the case is that when you place your EOD pending order? Or do you wait until later to see how the pair are acting? p.
  • #190
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:44pm Jul 22, 2012 8:44pm
Quoting piprac
Hugh -
Quite some time ago you told me, on another thread of yours I believe, that your broker's EOD was late afternoon or early evening. If that is still the case is that when you place your EOD pending order? Or do you wait until later to see how the pair are acting? p.
My brokers end of day is 12 GMT so I tend to place the orders either just before I go to bed or the next morning.
  • #191
  • Jul 22, 2012 10:34pm Jul 22, 2012 10:34pm
Quoting spyderman
The open of the next candle after what? Do you mean after the signal candle in the opposite direction of the monthly trend.

IMO a small sized stop doesn't necessarily equate to a low risk entry. If there's no price action (like the break of a high/low) to justify an entry, it can become a random entry at high risk.

Just my thoughts
The tweak I am suggesting is to just buy at market after the close of a bearish candle (open greater than close) or sell at market at the close of a bullish candle (open less than close). For backtesting, I used 100 ema close and 160 ema open to approximate the monthly ema's and a spread of 2 pips. Buying conditions are when the 100 ema is above the 160 ema and the 5 ema is above the 8 ema. Selling conditions are when the 160 ema is above the 100 ema and the 8 ema is above the 5 ema.
Here are the results of the system backtest for E/U from January 2011 through June 2012 using the original rules:
Total: +1078.1 pips
Avg Loss: -93.4 pips
Results of tweaked system backtest for E/U for same period:
Total: +1710 pips
Avg Loss: -37.7 pips
It seems that since the losses are smaller, more leverage can be used. More testing should be done on other time periods and currency pairs. Thanks again Hugh for starting this thread.
  • #192
  • Jul 23, 2012 1:05am Jul 23, 2012 1:05am
Quoting Wendavol
The tweak I am suggesting is to just buy at market after the close of a bearish candle (open greater than close) or sell at market at the close of a bullish candle (open less than close). For backtesting, I used 100 ema close and 160 ema open to approximate the monthly ema's and a spread of 2 pips. Buying conditions are when the 100 ema is above the 160 ema and the 5 ema is above the 8 ema. Selling conditions are when the 160 ema is above the 100 ema and the 8 ema is above the 5 ema.
Here are the results of the system backtest for E/U from January...
Interesting but how are you finding your av loss figures? Where are you putting the stop loss on entry?
  • #193
  • Jul 23, 2012 1:07am Jul 23, 2012 1:07am
Quoting Wendavol
It seems that since the losses are smaller, more leverage can be used. More testing should be done on other time periods and currency pairs. Thanks again Hugh for starting this thread.
how are the stop losses smaller...are you still risking 100 pips?? ...what other method do you have for making them smaller....the rest of the concept looks valid

regards
  • #194
  • Jul 23, 2012 4:17am Jul 23, 2012 4:17am
Quoting Wendavol
The tweak I am suggesting is to just buy at market after the close of a bearish candle (open greater than close) or sell at market at the close of a bullish candle (open less than close)..

Sorry I'm still fuzzy on the entry. If you take the entry after the close of your bearish candle (I'm assuming this is a monthly uptrend) how do you know if the retracement is done. It seems like a random (albeit end of day) entry. I believe Hugh's idea was that we get this retracement (bearish daily candle in a monthly uptrend) which sets a resistance point.
Resuming the uptrend and breaking that resistance is a signal of continued upside pressure.

Can't argue with your backtest results, I'm just trying to follow the logic of the entry.
  • #195
  • Jul 23, 2012 4:59am Jul 23, 2012 4:59am
aud/chf - I have a buy stop @1.0291; 2 red candles so far
eur/aud - a sell stop @ 1.1675; 2 green candles now

Both of these might be in the process of reversing trend direction but will leave them in place unless the MAs crossover.
  • #196
  • Jul 23, 2012 5:21am Jul 23, 2012 5:21am
Quoting spyderman
Sorry I'm still fuzzy on the entry. If you take the entry after the close of your bearish candle (I'm assuming this is a monthly uptrend) how do you know if the retracement is done. It seems like a random (albeit end of day) entry. I believe Hugh's idea was that we get this retracement (bearish daily candle in a monthly uptrend) which sets a resistance point.
Resuming the uptrend and breaking that resistance is a signal of continued upside pressure.

Can't argue with your backtest results, I'm just trying to follow the logic of the entry.
I agree with your concerns but if it backtests better than the original system then why fight it?

I'm still interested to know how the stop losses are smaller, how are the stops placed?

Remember that this sort of entry could work out better because you will catch more of the move and the key thing is that you are trading with an established trend so I wouldn't rule out this idea, just need clarification on the stop.
  • #197
  • Jul 23, 2012 5:23am Jul 23, 2012 5:23am
Quoting piprac
aud/chf - I have a buy stop @1.0291; 2 red candles so far
eur/aud - a sell stop @ 1.1675; 2 green candles now

Both of these might be in the process of reversing trend direction but will leave them in place unless the MAs crossover.
Those two pairs are exactly correlated at the moment so you are doubling your risk. Nothing wrong with that as long as you know and have accounted for it in your position sizing. I have taken all chf pairs off my list for now, no point in trading them. You'll find they tend to have slightly higher spreads too. Better to take a double position on euraud.
  • #198
  • Jul 23, 2012 5:54am Jul 23, 2012 5:54am
Quoting Hugh Briss
I agree with your concerns but if it backtests better than the original system then why fight it?

Too true. May work out better. Course everyone may be entering at different locations as daily bar close/open will vary. Not a huge deal, just harder to compare results.
  • #199
  • Jul 23, 2012 6:08am Jul 23, 2012 6:08am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Those two pairs are exactly correlated at the moment so you are doubling your risk. Nothing wrong with that as long as you know and have accounted for it in your position sizing. I have taken all chf pairs off my list for now, no point in trading them. You'll find they tend to have slightly higher spreads too. Better to take a double position on euraud.
Yes, well said. I have taken the smallest position possible and still on demo. I'm waiting for Oanda to approve a live account. The new wrinkle looks interesting and will keep following how it plays out for this strategy. More wins, smaller losses, who can complain?
  • #200
  • Jul 23, 2012 6:26am Jul 23, 2012 6:26am
Hi all,

I'm still new to this whole thing, but I was wondering what I have done is correct?

As the Daily shows a downtrend forming and the H1 has a pullback to the yellow, so I set a SellStop at the bottom of it and it triggered. After going +25p, I set a SL to almost BE.

Is this done right?

Thanks
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