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  • #381
  • Jul 22, 2012 4:17pm Jul 22, 2012 4:17pm
Yes I encourage newbies to be bold and put yourselves out there with your ideas and trade plan. We all started as noobs and we ALL make mistakes, that's how we grow. Do not listen to individuals gloating on about green pips this and I made that amount of money without posting their reasons and a trade plan. The genuine traders will give an explanation of their set up and trade plan and sit back and let it play out, no worries!!

The plan will either work or it wont!!!

The plan is of course all part of a bigger picture...

Thanks Daddybear for being an upfront type of bloke, good on you...

Dane.....



Quoting DaddyBear
Note: this message is for newbies. If you are not then please skip this one. Thanks.

I encourage all newbies to post your questions and messages in this forum. The purpose of a forum is to share and learn from each other. You may be worrying that someone may be looking down on you. some people may say something bad to you. But, who cares about a few people's narrow-minded talking.

Let me throw in a proverbs for you to figure out your inner strength. A carpenter told a 1000-year old tree that it was ugly and useless. However, the old tree...
  • #382
  • Jul 22, 2012 4:19pm Jul 22, 2012 4:19pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Note: this message is for newbies or new members. If you are not then please skip this one. Thanks.

I encourage all newbies to post your questions and messages in this forum. The purpose of a forum is to share and learn from each other. You may be worrying that someone may be looking down on you. some people may say something bad to you. But, who cares about a few people's narrow-minded talking.

Let me throw in a proverbs for you to figure out your inner strength. A carpenter told a 1000-year old tree that it was ugly and useless....
Thank you.
I will try not to ask questions that are too dumb though!
  • #383
  • Jul 22, 2012 4:21pm Jul 22, 2012 4:21pm
Quoting petehnm
looks like 50's are going to hang around till PPI..then we'll see either the plunge or a ride up a bit...seems like all my charts are showing a bearish attitude...but I'm in a long from Friday at 1.0364 and I'd like to see it go back up to the 1.0380-90 area to get out and change directions....but a few more pips down and I think I'll need to take my loss and sit back till after PPI is announced....open for suggestions.....
Seems to me, you are trying to pick up a coin at the edge of a pier without knowing your wallet filled with a few hundred dollars is slipping into the water. -IMHO-
daddybearforex. com
  • #384
  • Jul 22, 2012 4:28pm Jul 22, 2012 4:28pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Seems to me, you are trying to pick up a coin at the edge of a pier without knowing your wallet filled with a few hundred dollars is slipping into the water. -IMHO-
that's exactly what I'm doing papa...it's been a very bad habit of mine...I'm working on breaking this habit....my mind has been a huge contradiction in the last few years...been through some real hardships and my confidence is tired...
  • #385
  • Jul 22, 2012 4:32pm Jul 22, 2012 4:32pm
Quoting supertubes
Thank you.
I will try not to ask questions that are too dumb though!
There's no such thing as a dumb question, if it comes out from a sincere desire for knowledge.
This is a safe and cheerful space.
Just ask!
  • #386
  • Jul 22, 2012 4:37pm Jul 22, 2012 4:37pm
Quoting petehnm
looks like 50's are going to hang around till PPI..then we'll see either the plunge or a ride up a bit...seems like all my charts are showing a bearish attitude...but I'm in a long from Friday at 1.0364 and I'd like to see it go back up to the 1.0380-90 area to get out and change directions....but a few more pips down and I think I'll need to take my loss and sit back till after PPI is announced....open for suggestions.....
aud is a very stubborn currency, it's heavily relying on 1 and 4 hour and daily on entry and exit from what i see it. My reversal entries from 1.0415-1.0445 area was looking at daily chart and 4 hourly, 1 hourly. I didn't know where this bull could lead to because it just kept hopping on a bullish RSI and stoch last week breaking every level bit by bit.

Now it's in another pattern, breaking down bit by bit just before PPI. Tokyo open may give some retrace or further pit fall. I have closed most of my shorts, or trail forward. Its better to bank in some pips then seeing it turning back.

Daily it's bearish, eur is also bearish. But maybe another 20-50 pips on eur drop or hold at this range could see some sort of good retracement and that could ends aus dip as well.

1 hour already touched moving average change, 4 hour could be another longer bar down.

There could be no such thing as overbought or oversold on this kind of currency. More like demand is at which point now for those looking at bullish set up.

some short takers are looking to bring this to 1.2280 then even lower. Since eur is really terrible. But commodities are still giving a good fight at this point other than gold.
  • #387
  • Jul 22, 2012 4:39pm Jul 22, 2012 4:39pm
Quoting doblece
There's no such thing as a dumb question, if it comes out from a sincere desire for knowledge.
This is a safe and cheerful space.
Just ask!
doblece, I am glad to see that a person with wisdom and loving care like you is here to share his knowledge, wisdom and poem with everyone. Thanks. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #388
  • Jul 22, 2012 4:51pm Jul 22, 2012 4:51pm
Quoting 5percent
aud is a very stubborn currency, it's heavily relying on 1 and 4 hour and daily on entry and exit from what i see it. My reversal entries from 1.0415-1.0445 area was looking at daily chart and 4 hourly, 1 hourly. I didn't know where this bull could lead to because it just kept hopping on a bullish RSI and stoch last week breaking every level bit by bit.

Now it's in another pattern, breaking down bit by bit just before PPI. Tokyo open may give some retrace or further pit fall. I have closed most of my shorts, or trail forward. Its better to bank...
Thanks for your insights 5%...been researching the ADX and DMI indicators since I've started having discussions with DB and it's very interesting...I see the bearish feel on the 4hr and Daily as you say...It's just that I had good day with my DMI interpretations on Friday...was under the impression that it still had some strength to the upside before the move to the south...have a stop at 1.0330 and it's getting close.....although a stop helps you from big losses they still suck when they get hit..especially if they get hit and then turn right back around and finish the job you started.....but that's just the way it is here in the Forex universe...
  • #389
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:01pm Jul 22, 2012 5:01pm
Quoting petehnm
Thanks for your insights 5%...been researching the ADX and DMI indicators since I've started having discussions with DB and it's very interesting...I see the bearish feel on the 4hr and Daily as you say...It's just that I had good day with my DMI interpretations on Friday...was under the impression that it still had some strength to the upside before the move to the south...have a stop at 1.0330 and it's getting close.....although a stop helps you from big losses they still suck when they get hit..especially if they get hit and then turn...
Based on my reading, the daily ADX is still bullish up to this point. Base on my chart pattern reading, the daily bullish pattern is incomplete. But, if you are trading short term like M5 or M15, it would be another story. -IMHO-
daddybearforex. com
  • #390
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:08pm Jul 22, 2012 5:08pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Based on my reading, the daily ADX is still bullish up to this point. Base on my chart pattern reading, the daily bullish pattern is incomplete. But, if you are trading short term like M5 or M15, it would be another story. -IMHO-
What I'm thinking is what your saying...I really pay more attention to the 4hr and up time frames...I like to use the M5 and M15 for entry and exit points but that to is something new that I'm researching at the moment...
  • #391
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:09pm Jul 22, 2012 5:09pm
ouch stopped out......
  • #392
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:11pm Jul 22, 2012 5:11pm
Quoting petehnm
ouch stopped out......

now going to wait till PPI and see what I see...lol...one for the books...
  • #393
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:11pm Jul 22, 2012 5:11pm
Quoting doblece
There's no such thing as a dumb question, if it comes out from a sincere desire for knowledge.
This is a safe and cheerful space.
Just ask!
Ok here goes!

I am currently short from 1.0417 (1 mini cfd) My tp is 1.0235 from where I would look possibly to go long.
Looking at it again Im now thinking that 1.0290 is a more sensible place to look to go long :-/
  • #394
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:18pm Jul 22, 2012 5:18pm
Quoting supertubes
Ok here goes!

I am currently short from 1.0417 (1 mini cfd) My tp is 1.0235 from where I would look possibly to go long.
Looking at it again Im now thinking that 1.0290 is a more sensible place to look to go long :-/

Great question supertubes...sorry don't have an answer for you but hold on there's some really intelligent individuals here that I believe will give you some good guidance...the decision always has to be yours...good luck and congrats on the ongoing wining trade...
  • #395
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:19pm Jul 22, 2012 5:19pm
Hi

I am bearish for the pair we have Daily divergence supported by a AB = CD pattern my first target would be the bottom line of the channel 1.0215, if that breaks then I see parity again.

Also if you look back to 2006 every year thereafter August is nearly always a bearish month
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd daily.jpg Size: 153 KB
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #396
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:26pm Jul 22, 2012 5:26pm
Quoting CNTrader
Here are some thoughts. Should be interesting to see how it plays out. Currently short from Thursday night Asian session. I will adjust my direction according to what my charts are telling me. However one thing that stays in the back of my mind is how nicely yeilds tracked with the AU until early 2011 and although the relationship hasnt completely broken down, the sharp drop in yeilds has been met with subdued moves in the currency. AU is just 5% off its all time highs since early 2011 and the 10yr has nearly dropped 50% from its levels around that...
Im responding to my own post because I feel like there is important information to be shared, especially as it relates to the part about yields, that some may not have an opportunity to see as sometimes post get lost due to time and quantity of other posts. This may help the newbies more then others as often times newbies do not have an awareness of how soveriegn debt yields can play a major role in the way currencies move. I would encourage those who want a little info to read the post i am responding to. Also I will add this little bit of fundi info that more or less pertains to the Euro but can also have a significant impact on other currencies like the AUD. Keep in mind that its fundamental and often time can take a while to play out especially when there is intervention taking place by Central banks. Here it is use as you see fit. If it serves as no use to you then that is fine too.

First its important for me to say that Im not a doom and gloom type of person. So please don't misunderstand me that way, however, i feel its important as a result of my many years experience in the markets to also try and see the big picture and what some of the other markets may be trying to tell us as we go about trading inside the intraday playground. These are just some of my thoughts:

The bond markets continue to send a very clear message about the world. What is this message? The message is: Things are at peak crisis!

Taking a look at the yields we see that Spanish yields hit new record highs on Friday, and Italy is nearing a breakout that could have it moving its way back toward 7% very quickly.

We are also seeing that German yields fell to new record lows on Friday, and US yields are within spitting distance of record lows as well.

So looking beyond some of the rallies across stocks and other currencies throughout periods of last week, the story that yields are telling us about this crisis is that it once again is hitting its peak intensity.

Keep in mind that absent the intervention we saw in the euro over the past 6 trading days, the EUR/USD would probably already be at or below the 2010 low of 1.1877. To go along with that, the euro would also be flashing the biggest crisis warning for the world.

That said, that is precisely why we've seen the intervention in the first place (To prevent a disorderly free fall). I say this because we clearly can see that despite what the bond markets are telling us, a somewhat calm and orderly decline in the euro masks the severity of the risks.

The euro remains the key proxy on the European crisis for global market participants. So it reasons to say, if it’s not collapsing, it promotes a sense of calm in the markets.

If we take this into consideration in our analysis then we must also consider the probability that someone may step in the bond market next week to curb the Spanish and Italian yields. This would coincide with one of the messages that came from the latest summit regarding the use of EFSF funds to buy sovereign debt. Now this was probably a scare tactic attempting to scare off bond speculators and may have worked temporarily throughout the middle of last week, however, a look at the moves in both the Eur/Usd and bond yeilds on Friday shows us that all in all it simply did not last. So it becomes possible now that the ECB will be forced to act if you will. If they don't, it could and most likely will get very ugly.

Hope this info helps if not then hope it was interesting info worth you time.
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
  • #397
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:30pm Jul 22, 2012 5:30pm
Quoting Robot Trader
Hi
I am bearish for the pair we have Daily divergence supported by a AB = CD pattern my first target would be the bottom line of the channel 1.0215, if that breaks then I see parity again.

Also if you look back to 2006 every year thereafter August is nearly always a bearish month
First, welcome aboard!

In my opinion, 1.0215 is very likely but parity probably not. Your seasonality could be proved correct this year. Since there are still 7 sessions before Aug. An up move is highly likely. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #398
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:42pm Jul 22, 2012 5:42pm
FT-Bleak jobs outlook raises heat on Fed
Bernanke comments last week suggested no hurry in unleashing QE3
Cited U.S. fiscal deficit + EZ crisis as bigger problems
Recent mixed data suggests more easing, if any, may be around Jackson Hole

thomsonreuters.com
  • #399
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:45pm Jul 22, 2012 5:45pm
Quoting DaddyBear
First, welcome aboard!

In my opinion, 1.0215 is very likely but parity probably not. Your seasonality could be proved correct this year. Since there are still 7 sessions before Aug. An up move is highly likely. -DB-
DB firstly thank you for the welcome

We have a couple of news items this week that if negative could trigger a few hundred pip moves, AUD PPI in less than 1 hour and tomorrow we have the HSBC PMI data for China, which could also be negative.

I guess we will have to wait and see and act accordingly.

RT
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #400
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:57pm Jul 22, 2012 5:57pm
Quoting payal
FT-Bleak jobs outlook raises heat on Fed
Bernanke comments last week suggested no hurry in unleashing QE3
Cited U.S. fiscal deficit + EZ crisis as bigger problems
Recent mixed data suggests more easing, if any, may be around Jackson Hole

thomsonreuters.com
I mean no disrespect so dont take this the wrong way. Not arguing but In my very humble opinion Fundamentally speaking i would be cautious of the QE3 trap as poor economic data by itself is not a catalyst for QE3. QE has been and probably always will be for Spanky (Bernache) at least, a method of fighting percieved deflation. So to justify QE3 i would pay attention to indications that deflation is starting to take hold. What i would use to explain a USD spanking if in fact we get it this week will more then likely be intervention by the EFSF trying to get the soveriegn bond yield and unsustainable debt levels below crisis levels as stated above. -IMVHO

BTW some might say we are already at QE5 lol.
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
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