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  • #2,841
  • Jul 18, 2012 7:35am Jul 18, 2012 7:35am
Quoting dvarrin
Really great information what you've written here Forexhard! I going on reading the thread and what I could notice is that the setting of the parameter is really key to this system....Forexhard, why didn't you insist more for us to really pay attention to the box parameters? ... Kidding :-)
You had better believe that I have spent countless hours testing every possible combination of parameters with our indicator. Days even. Trading is a marathon sport, not a sprint. The only guys who succeed are the ones willing to put in the time to become perfect at the really boring stuff, and stick to it long enough that what used to be exciting becomes boring. When everything related to your trades becomes boring and unexciting and seems like a real job, that's when you know you have finally "arrived". Only then do you stand a chance at winning at Forex.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #2,842
  • Jul 18, 2012 7:49am Jul 18, 2012 7:49am
Quoting forexhard
@ Mr Pippy...

What you have to keep in mind as you read through, is that this thread started as a naked trading system. All the trade boxes were hand drawn at the start. Which only changed when Squalou volunteered to make the indicator. Which means that even I had to learn my own way around the indicator, since it was just as new to me as it was to everyone else. So if you see me using a different setting on page #120 than I was using on page #80, that's me refining my own personal indi settings and templates, etc., same as I recommend that...
Many thanks for your informative reply.....I appreciate you run a tight ship on this thread and I hope my question hasn't added any unnecessary clutter.

I've just made the adjustment to see whether it demists my tiny brain lol and its made things far clearer now so again many thanks!
  • #2,843
  • Jul 18, 2012 8:07am Jul 18, 2012 8:07am
Quoting forexhard
...I saw all of these things, too. And after weighing the pros and the cons, I decided that the best tactic for me was to set the candle open to zero, and to add several more bars to the CZ finder. That way I still get the quicker breakout take off and the shorter SL value/distance to the opposite side of the CZ, which are the optimum values we all hope for any way. BUT... the down side is that I have many fewer CZ's showing as a result of these personal choices and refinements....
I came to the same conclusion some time ago (trading immediate BO), however I still tend to keep my CZs at 30 bars which I consider the standard, not extended, size. This will however result in a number of reversals so what I suggest is to document all the trades for a all CZs over past 200days, taking into account upto X losing trades per CZ (replace X with own judgement - Forexhard mentioned he likes to use 4), and calculate probability of hitting TP vs SL for each. This can then be used to size your positions. I.e. a CZ appears and you know that the first BO hits TP 27% of time, so you size it i.e. at £1pp*, and when it hits SL, the second BO hits TP 68% of time, so you can size it £2.5pp and so on for each losing trade.

You can hold such long term overview to keep things in perspective and also produce shorter term numbers (given for the same data set) over i.e. past 10-15 CZs to see if there are any major shifts in tendencies to account for.

* - or even dont trade it at all as at i.e. 1:1 RR over the long run it would not make sense to trade anything with TP chance of >= 51%
  • #2,844
  • Edited 8:53am Jul 18, 2012 8:18am | Edited 8:53am
Thanky you for your answer ForexHard!

For me the most difficult part is how to enter after the breakout of the box.

At first the advice was to enter on the close of the second bar closing through the buffer line. And as you wrote above, we could also enter on the breakout bar if we use more restrictive parameters.

Have you been able to do some long term analysis about the different entry methods?
For example a well known breakout entry method and very conservative is to wait for a pullback after the breakout and enter the trade when the price breaks through the breakout top (or bottom). Sometime this method could save us from losing trades and sometime we would miss the big moves outside of the box. Perhaps we could choose one or the other method depending on the market conditions, but I've really no idea on how we could do that.

Then the position of the SL level could be discussed too. Some people put it on the below the pullback (for an upwards breakout). Some other put it at the middle of the range and some other yet put it on the other side of the range.

Do you have something to share with us about that?
  • #2,845
  • Jul 18, 2012 8:24am Jul 18, 2012 8:24am
Whilst I'm still new to the thread and am probably incorrect.....this system is trading the breakout only.....isn't adding pullbacks, 123s a different system altogether?

My main concern now is making sure I'm entering at the right time.....at the moment it seems the best way for me is when a b/o bar closes just outside the buffer line and I enter in at the high of that candle.

The thread will provide the clues I'm sure!
  • #2,846
  • Jul 18, 2012 8:49am Jul 18, 2012 8:49am
Quoting Mr Pippy
Whilst I'm still new to the thread and am probably incorrect.....this system is trading the breakout only.....isn't adding pullbacks, 123s a different system altogether?

My main concern now is making sure I'm entering at the right time.....at the moment it seems the best way for me is when a b/o bar closes just outside the buffer line and I enter in at the high of that candle.

The thread will provide the clues I'm sure!
It looks like a good idea! And you're right with your answer. I don't want to add additional problems to this breakout system, but there is no pullback without a breakout and that's only an additional idea to confirm a breakout.
We can enter on the second close through the buffer level.
We can enter on the break through the high of the breakout bar as you do.

These are all ways to add some confidence to the breakout and the "breakout-pullback-continuation" idea could also find it's place here.
  • #2,847
  • Jul 18, 2012 8:51am Jul 18, 2012 8:51am
I wonder is there anyone who can proove with track record this system works?

Now after 1 year there should be enough data.
  • #2,848
  • Jul 18, 2012 12:19pm Jul 18, 2012 12:19pm
I'm sensing that some of you new guys have jumped over the 1-week naked trading excercise mentioned on page #1, and gone straight to the cool looking custom indicator. If so, bad move. If you want to keep posting in here, then I suggest you go back the first post and do what it says. Post #2770 wasn't a joke. From now on I want to see experienced posters; the noob stuff has already run it's course. Time to show us all what you know, not what you don't.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #2,849
  • Jul 18, 2012 7:58pm Jul 18, 2012 7:58pm
Follow the damned rules already in the thread! I still trade hand drawn boxes and I figured out how to have positive trades. You "brilliant sounding" dazzling trader posers should go dazzle someone else with your gobbledygook Those of us "happily" trading this system of our mentor, ForexHard, listened to his teachings and found our ways to our success. Since you mouth flappers are so knowledgeable, I am certain you are capable of the same, or good riddance. We are not impressed with you. (Sorry Thread Partners and FxHard. I wanted to get that off my chest over a thousand posts ago.) jm
  • #2,850
  • Jul 18, 2012 11:55pm Jul 18, 2012 11:55pm
Box on G/U.
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  • #2,851
  • Jul 19, 2012 1:33am Jul 19, 2012 1:33am
Quoting dvarrin
Box on G/U.
If you look on these 2 charts you will see better boxes a bit later that have not yet BO.

I will be trading those.

Cannot download my charts ATM

Larry
  • #2,852
  • Jul 19, 2012 2:57am Jul 19, 2012 2:57am
Quoting LarryK
If you look on these 2 charts you will see better boxes a bit later that have not yet BO.

I will be trading those.

Cannot download my charts ATM

Larry
Yes I've also noticed them afterwards. Well I'll stop posting until I've read everything and also finished the practice week.
  • #2,853
  • Jul 19, 2012 8:05am Jul 19, 2012 8:05am
Quoting LarryK
If you look on these 2 charts you will see better boxes a bit later that have not yet BO.

I will be trading those.

Cannot download my charts ATM

Larry
3 nice trades in the TO session last night woke up to green pips
AU EU GU I get nervous about it . . . multi pairs . . . but the CZ all looked fresh and good the USD must have taken a hit late yesterday so all 3 made nice profits especially AU

FXHARD I love this system very easy and stress free
  • #2,854
  • Jul 19, 2012 10:04am Jul 19, 2012 10:04am
So I'm on page 100 of this thread and continue to read. In the mean while, I'm drawing the boxes and studying the patterns as directed.

All I can say is that I feel a huge sense of relief. I followed along with a few indicator-based systems on a demo account and was only dissapointed. What started out as a "when these signals all line up, pull the trigger" system eventually devolved into "when all the signals line up, plus the stochs, confirmation from higher time frames, and you see these particular candle formations....then pull the trigger". At that point, it seemed like hardly any trades would match the requirements, and the ones that did sure didn't seem to have the high probability of wins that you'd expect from all the qualifiers.

Me thinks that Stairstep is going to become the cornerstone of all my trading activities.
  • #2,855
  • Jul 20, 2012 1:14pm Jul 20, 2012 1:14pm
I've been keeping a close eye on this thread for a few months now, and just wanted to add my thanks to all those who have contributed. I've spent a lot of time manually drawing boxes, back-testing, and tweaking the indicator settings, and am now demo trading for a while.

I do have one question around the modifications being made to the indicator; when going through the (many) posts in the thread, I noticed someone mentioned changing the e-mail notification to send an alert when a box is created, rather than when the actual breakout takes place. Is this likely to be included in the updates?

Cheers
  • #2,856
  • Jul 20, 2012 4:25pm Jul 20, 2012 4:25pm
The revised custom indi in action...
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #2,857
  • Jul 20, 2012 5:25pm Jul 20, 2012 5:25pm
The revised custom indicator is looking GREAT!
  • #2,858
  • Jul 20, 2012 5:48pm Jul 20, 2012 5:48pm
Quoting forexhard
The revised custom indi in action...
It looks really nice, a lot better than the 5 or 6 previous boxes.
  • #2,859
  • Jul 21, 2012 12:20am Jul 21, 2012 12:20am
Quoting forexhard
The revised custom indi in action...
Where I will find the revised custom indicator? Can you please post the link.
  • #2,860
  • Jul 21, 2012 3:16am Jul 21, 2012 3:16am
Quoting forexhard
The revised custom indi in action...
There is a crucial item missing in those stats viz Stop loss.

I presume it is part of the inputs for the back test?

I look forward as others here to the release of this Indi, it will certainly help us with our trade settings.

Larry
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