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  • #161
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:57pm Jul 16, 2012 12:57pm
Quoting strada
Hi Stricky, just a bit of further clarification and bordering on pedantic on my part but best to keep this all straight.
I wouldn't say "there wasn't a convincing enough signal", that would imply that I grade the signal strength which I don't.
The signal was all OK and I would have had no hesitation using it but when price goes against a signal I won't enter a trade, to me that would be madness, like betting the 3 legged horse that's 10 furlongs behind the field.
This has been part of my strategy for many years and I can't change now.

JPR,...
Yes, probably the wrong term of phrase in hindsight, thanks for the clarification.
  • #162
  • Jul 17, 2012 2:18am Jul 17, 2012 2:18am
Monday
7am Bias = 15%; 7am No Bias = -5%; 8am Bias = 15%; 8am No Bias = 15%.
(7am & 8am Bias trades were both the same trade today)

Tuesday
7am Bias = -5%; 7am No Bias = -5%; 8am Bias = -5%; 8am No Bias = -5%.
  • #163
  • Jul 17, 2012 2:42am Jul 17, 2012 2:42am
First Arrow - Franfurt bias trade = loss
Second Arrow Paulus Original trade = loss

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 18.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #164
  • Jul 18, 2012 1:24am Jul 18, 2012 1:24am
Frankfurt entry @ 22800
SL @ 22857
TP @ 22633

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 19.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #165
  • Jul 18, 2012 2:06am Jul 18, 2012 2:06am
Quoting Jpr
Frankfurt entry @ 22800
SL @ 22857
TP @ 22633

Attachment
Stopped out.
  • #166
  • Edited 7:15am Jul 18, 2012 6:21am | Edited 7:15am
Monday
7am Bias = 15%; 7am No Bias = -5%; 8am Bias = 15%; 8am No Bias = 15%.
(7am & 8am Bias trades were both the same trade today)

Tuesday
7am Bias = -5%; 7am No Bias = -5%; 8am Bias = -5%; 8am No Bias = -5%.
(8am Bias & 8am No Bias trades were the same trade today)

Wednesday
7am Bias = -5%; 7am No Bias = -5%; 8am Bias = -5%; 8am No Bias = -5%.
(7am Bias & 7am No Bias trades were the same trade today)
  • #167
  • Jul 18, 2012 6:58am Jul 18, 2012 6:58am
Quoting Jpr
Frankfurt entry @ 22800
SL @ 22857
TP @ 22633

Attachment
Hi JPR - Thanks for recording your results here this morning, did you realise that there was signal at 07.01 too?

No difference to end result as it lost as well, but did you avoid it because it was too close to open or any other reason?

cheers
  • #168
  • Jul 18, 2012 12:06pm Jul 18, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting stricky1967
Hi JPR - Thanks for recording your results here this morning, did you realise that there was signal at 07.01 too?

No difference to end result as it lost as well, but did you avoid it because it was too close to open or any other reason?

cheers
Hi,

Yeah if it's that close to the open I don't take it.

JPR
  • #169
  • Jul 19, 2012 1:51am Jul 19, 2012 1:51am
Loss this morning:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 20.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #170
  • Jul 19, 2012 3:36am Jul 19, 2012 3:36am
Monday
7am Bias = 15%; 7am No Bias = -5%; 8am Bias = 15%; 8am No Bias = 15%.
(7am & 8am Bias trades were both the same trade today)

Tuesday
7am Bias = -5%; 7am No Bias = -5%; 8am Bias = -5%; 8am No Bias = -5%.
(8am Bias & 8am No Bias trades were the same trade today)

Wednesday
7am Bias = -5%; 7am No Bias = -5%; 8am Bias = -5%; 8am No Bias = -5%.
(7am Bias & 7am No Bias trades were the same trade today)

Thursday
7am Bias = -5%; 7am No Bias = 15%; 8am Bias = -5%; 8am No Bias = -5%.
(8am Bias & 8am No Bias trades were the same trade today)
  • #171
  • Jul 19, 2012 6:59am Jul 19, 2012 6:59am
Quoting strada
Thursday
7am Bias = -5%; 7am No Bias = 15%; 8am Bias = -5%; 8am No Bias = -5%.
(8am Bias & 8am No Bias trades were the same trade today)
Hi everybody,

Please I would like to know if I took same signals than yours:
7am Bias (down bias) = short at 7.15am = -5%
7am No Bias = long at 7.03am = 15%
8am Bias (up bias) = long at 8.54am = -5%
8am No Bias = short at 7.58am = -5%

Strada, I don't see when you took 8am Bias & 8am No Bias trades, if they are the same trade? Please, could you give me the hour?
  • #172
  • Jul 19, 2012 7:12am Jul 19, 2012 7:12am
Quoting vinze87
Hi everybody,

Please I would like to know if I took same signals than yours:
7am Bias (down bias) = short at 7.15am = -5%
7am No Bias = long at 7.03am = 15%
8am Bias (up bias) = long at 8.54am = -5%
8am No Bias = short at 7.58am = -5%

Strada, I don't see when you took 8am Bias & 8am No Bias trades, if they are the same trade? Please, could you give me the hour?
I only took the 7am bias trade but that was the same as you posted. I can also see that the 7am no bias would have been a winner.
As for the other two London trades - i'm not sure as I didn't look at those today.
  • #173
  • Jul 19, 2012 7:37am Jul 19, 2012 7:37am
Hi Vinze, I had the same times for the 7am trades as you have.
The 7.58 (no bias) I didn't take but I suppose it could have been used, although stoch was getting very low at 8am.
There was a short signal at 8.10 but price reversed against it and didn't use it.
The next signal was a long signal at 8.51 which I used and that was both the 8am bias and no bias trade.
Hope this clarifies things for you, strada.
  • #174
  • Edited 8:33am Jul 19, 2012 8:21am | Edited 8:33am
Thank you very much Jpr and Strada!

Strada,
Yes, 8.00 Stoch was too low to take a 8.00 No Bias trade.
And, I'm agree to say: 8.51 was a valid long signal to use for 8.00 Bias. Even if, there was a down candle bar at 8.51

But for 8.00 No Bias, before 8.51, I think there was at 8.43: a valid short signal (with a good Bullish Engulfing Pattern), which was winning.

Strada, I have 2 questions about your Spreadsheet:
1. During 9 test weeks, you got 355% profit for 7.00 Bias and 155% profit for 8.00 No Bias.
Consequently, "7Bias+8NB" without "S@W", would give 510% profit, logically?

2. 7.00 Bias gave you 355% profit and 7.00 No Bias gave you 315% profit. So, do you think it could be interesting to look at a "7Bias+7NB strategy"? (In this case, 2 trades could be open simultaneously, so we could set 2,5% risk per trade.)
  • #175
  • Jul 19, 2012 2:01pm Jul 19, 2012 2:01pm
Hi Vince, the signal you suggested at 8.43 I'm afraid I don't see, stoch was just over 50 briefly but hadn't recently been above 80. Was that the signal you were referring to?

Re the spreadsheet, well spotted, you are quite correct about the totals. The reason for the difference is that I altered some of the columns last week or week before and when I transposed the figures over some of them must have got tangled up. I have fixed it although I still have a discrepancy of 5% in that total so will check it sometime. The spreadsheet at the close of play tomorrow will have been updated. Thanks for the heads up.

Your idea of 7 bias and 7 no bias is a good one, I've been trading it this week and where both trades are the same I've been using the 8am no bias for a follow up. If the first trade overran the 2nd then again I'd use the 8am no bias as follow up.
Using 2.5% on both, we'd need to know in advance if there was going to be a simultaneous situation or of course you could just build that into the strategy permanently. Interesting idea, need to look more closely at it. I'm getting used to running simultaneous trades in opposite directions as it happens a lot between my normal method and this one, fortunately I'm using relatively small stakes on this while testing so it's not causing me too much angst.
cheers, strada.
  • #176
  • Jul 19, 2012 2:43pm Jul 19, 2012 2:43pm
Quoting strada
Hi Vince, the signal you suggested at 8.43 I'm afraid I don't see, stoch was just over 50 briefly but hadn't recently been above 80. Was that the signal you were referring to?
Yes, I was referring to 8.43 signal.
You're right, Stoch wasn't at all optimal. I have been believing "Stoch must come from above 80" was just a Paulus's advice (i.e just an added advantage). But, you're right, it has to be considered as an obligation!

Quoting strada
I'm getting used to running simultaneous trades in opposite directions as it happens a lot between my normal method and this one...
Yes, "Simultaneous Opposite Trades" is a very interesting direction to explore! Please, what methods do you refered by saying: "...my normal method and this one..."?
  • #177
  • Jul 19, 2012 2:52pm Jul 19, 2012 2:52pm
Uh Uh, not on this thread, just do a little bit of digging or PM me.
I'm off now, wife out to her bridge club, I'm on the ole Tennessee southern mash, soon won't see the keyboard, goodnight, stadra.
  • #178
  • Jul 20, 2012 2:16am Jul 20, 2012 2:16am
Loss this morning:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 21.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #179
  • Jul 20, 2012 2:18pm Jul 20, 2012 2:18pm
Monday
7am Bias = 15%; 7am No Bias = -5%; 8am Bias = 15%; 8am No Bias = 15%.
(7am & 8am Bias trades were both the same trade today)

Tuesday
7am Bias = -5%; 7am No Bias = -5%; 8am Bias = -5%; 8am No Bias = -5%.
(8am Bias & 8am No Bias trades were the same trade today)

Wednesday
7am Bias = -5%; 7am No Bias = -5%; 8am Bias = -5%; 8am No Bias = -5%.
(7am Bias & 7am No Bias trades were the same trade today)

Thursday
7am Bias = -5%; 7am No Bias = 15%; 8am Bias = -5%; 8am No Bias = -5%..
(8am Bias & 8am No Bias trades were the same trade today)

Friday
7am Bias = -5%; 7am No Bias = -5%; 8am Bias = -5%; 8am No Bias = -5%.
(7am Bias & 7am No Bias trades were both the same trade today)

Today's London trades could easily be viewed differently from the results shown above.
Firstly, according to the rules (ie the written rules) the London bias was down. There was a short signal at 7.59 which in the past I have been using and for the purpose of today's results have again used it in the interest of consistency so therefore the results show a loss here and also for the 8am no bias which was the same trade.
I know JPR prefers not to use the very early signals and no doubt others as well and with good reason as price immediately after the turn of the hour can be a bit volatile, and not always in our favour.
So I'm going to have a look at the merits of using these early signals before the hour.
If that early signal hadn't been used then there would have been a 8am no bias signal at 8.12 (short) which may just have been a win but checking it in hindsight can't be 100% certain.
As the bias would have changed to Long the 8am Bias signal would have been at 9.38 and again it's touch and go whether it would have been a win, I've only checked these on MT4 and not on my normal charts.
Anyway a below average week, let's see what next week brings. If anyone wants the latest spreadsheet just let me know.
regards and a good weekend to all, strada.
  • #180
  • Jul 22, 2012 2:57am Jul 22, 2012 2:57am
Quoting strada
Monday
7am Bias = 15%; 7am No Bias = -5%; 8am Bias = 15%; 8am No Bias = 15%.
(7am & 8am Bias trades were both the same trade today)

Tuesday
7am Bias = -5%; 7am No Bias = -5%; 8am Bias = -5%; 8am No Bias = -5%.
(8am Bias & 8am No Bias trades were the same trade today)

Wednesday
7am Bias = -5%; 7am No Bias = -5%; 8am Bias = -5%; 8am No Bias = -5%.
(7am...
Thanks for continued updates on other entries mate. Just one of those weeks - they happen.

JPR
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