AUD/USD

Everyday a new low in this thread.

Im always up for a "Cartoon Indicators" thread. HAHA

i have never used sl.. but i trade smaller position.. i have shorts on AU till 1.0475

You might start using them in your next account after this beast hits 1.06 and you get a margin call.

Just create a thread. If it's in the wrong section they will put it in the right one. Choose a title most appropriate and not misleading for the style you want.

Hahaha...for cartoon and free speech please go to member lounger area and create a new thread there sir

i normally get profit 4 to 10% profit in my account.. i have seen so much of movements in this 4 yrs of trading.. i will never get margin call.. i will atleast end up 3 to 4% in profit in a month.

That wasn't a chart of this thread. That was an EUR/AUD chart.

Oops you're right, naughty me.

Hello everyone,
I was stopped out of my hedge but was more than overjoyed at the dollar’s performance today. I would have posted my exit and loss on AUD (attached) but I was doing battle at the front line defending the 83.215 R level with success and completing three quarters of my full line.
Those who are long and stayed long congrats like I mentioned earlier in the morning The dollar is going to crack and those who are patient will be rewarded. Those who have been long Since Friday congrats even more
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...30#post5842430

I wanted to touch on a point of Palabara’s assessment of long term trading; normally my hold time when the Idea is a really great one I will hold a trade for two weeks. If it goes in my favor I will re asses the position and see the potential for more appreciation. I consider it a failure if I tie up my money for more than a week on one idea and don’t make a minimum of 40K on that trade. Just like last week when I went heavy in AUD on the China GDP anticipation and it did not materialize I was in During Employment, caught that move, and got out before the next day’s trading with a quarter of the profits from the peak. That trade in my mind was a failure.

As for the argument Long vs Short term trader I am not certain if you go in with size and capture several pips then do it over and over again but I think the idea of catching the A&C waves with a full line is much less stressful because you’re not stressing out about making money everyday like your working a normal job. I know guys even today who need to make money everyday even when there is no setup because they associate themselves as still part of the 9to5er’s so they will risk 5k to make $150. If that is ok with some here I understand but I think it’s a failure if people who trade as a profession and have been doing this for more than 5 years take unnecessary risk or make less than 7figures otherwise why do this with the added stress and the 90+ hours you could be a VP at a company with less stress making 6figures

Ahah good one There are so many great quotes from that movie. Who doesn't love Gordon Gekko?

Here are my losses for the aud/usd trade. I will not needing anymore hedges as the dollar briefly traded below 83.00 a couple hours ago so I will be waiting for claims to cement the bulls on dollar and we could be trading at the 82.20 target by Friday (ex. Black swan)
AUD/USD has amazing power yesterday even shot past all the ABC fib extension I drew out. The dollar has cracked 83 and I suspect just like Friday those who have missed this rally in equities and commodities will be upset and will start joining the bandwagon which should create a lot of Buy orders sitting on the MM’s books come NY open. We will crack on this pair and on ES eventually but there is still more upside I like to use /DX as a barometer of how much more we have to the upside and like the target I pointed out last Friday 82.20 is the lower end of a minor trend so look for more appreciation into the weekend. The dollar chart below shows that various supports have been broken on the /dx and we are heading lower.

Risk Still ONNN!!
Disclaimer: I am biased on the short dollar long risk so take this for a grain of salt.

AUD/USD losses screen taken at NY close all part of the game if you have a larger position you hedge it until the big move comes then you sit back and let the coins clink on in,

Interesting. I'm not quite in that league(40k on a single trade), but I'm starting to think more along those lines. I like to wait for the market to tell me when to exit a trade, but that can also mean a late(sometimes very late), and less than ideal exit. Are you still short DX? Do you have a specific time or price level where you would exit that trade?

Aldente,

I am not certain what year your in on trading but I put in 3 years to start trading size and you will get there to look for the great setups, try to find the trades like soros did and look at it this way.

Year1. Say you start with 10k and you have a default rate (losing days)of 15% or 12days and there are 314 trading days for futures/forex traders at the end of the year if you have a strict MM principal and follow the graph attached you could achieve $104,850 pre tax
then you have 25% default (20days) if you follow your plan and make a min of the attached on column E your still coming out with $89,750
This is all done provided you respect risk, and you increase volume in the last half of the year.

Year2. This year is where you’re still working a job so your focus needs to be better setups because there is more contracts you’re trading and the swings are larger. So go in with size and take only the best setups. I have not done a spreadsheet after year one because the complexity of variables is to much and this would just be an outline anyway.

Year3. The year of Graduation. This is the year where you should be making over 100K a quarter so that by the end of the year you can tell your boss peace out and go full time living life and not being tied to the game anymore.

Those who start out with smaller account sizes don't listen to schmucks who say you are not going to make a million with 5K. They are right to an extent but if you look into the future, compound your gains and add principal to the account every qtr of 5k or more you will be there within 10years. And even before that if you have an audited track record you can start up a CTA and manage money for a share of the profits

Best of luck all and there are guys/gals that can make it you just need to see this not as a hobby but like breathing for air its crucial you put in the time.

(I have my chart above but 82.20 area is where I am hoping it will be at be end of this week)
Aldente,

I am not certain what year your in on trading but I put in 3 years to start trading size and you will get there to look for the great setups, try to find the trades like soros did and look at it this way.

Year1. Say you start with 10k and you have a default rate (losing days)of 15% or 12days and there are 314 trading days for futures/forex traders at the end of the year if you have a strict MM principal and follow the graph attached you could achieve $104,850 pre tax
then you have 25% default (20days) if you follow your plan and make a min of the attached on column E your still coming out with $89,750
This is all done provided you respect risk, and you increase volume in the last half of the year.

Year2. This year is where your still working a job so your focus needs to be better setups because there is more contracts your trading and the swings are larger. So go in with size and take only the best setups. I have not done a spreadsheet after year one because the complexity of variables is to much and this would just be an outline anyway.

Year3. The year of Graduation. This is the year where you should be making over 100K a quarter so that by the end of the year you can tell your boss peace out and go full time living life and not being tied to the game anymore.

Those who start out with smaller account sizes don't listen to schmucks who say you are not going to make a million with 5K. They are right to an extent but if you look into the future, compound your gains and add principal to the account every qtr of 5k or more you will be there within 10years. And even before that if you have an audited track record you can start up a CTA and manage money for a share of the profits

Best of luck all and there are guys/gals that can make it you just need to see this not as a hobby but like breathing for air its crucial you put in the time.

(I have my chart above but 82.20 area is where I am hoping it will be at be end of this week)

Thanks Jplazard. This is an impressive success story. 3 years?? That's pretty quick. I'm actually in my 7th year of trading, but I feel I am starting to hit my stride. I'm giving this a couple more years, if I'm not making 6 figures by then I will probably hang it up. Sounds like you are killing it tho, nicely done and nice post

Quite inspiring . Thanks for posting !!

DB, pls let me know about your new thread. Thanks !!

You will get there monetary wise very soon but getting to that point of emotional freedom comes faster because your confident in yourself and your trading plan. I actually first started out with options trading then weeklys when they were introduced which if you watch deltas you can make crazy returns. Like putting down 3or4 k in OTM calls or puts to make 16k when apple moves 3or4 dollars is crazy. then when I reached a healthy sum I focused all of my attention to futures trading and have not looked back since

I know most of you here are familiar with FIBONACCI CONFLUENCE and those that are not refer to the link for a quick definition http://www.stock-charts-made-easy.co...onfluence.html I wanted to paste a chart on AUD futures that shows this last 24hours price action and what we could expect to see at the closing of this week.

Looking at this chart it is a buch of scribbles at first but then you notice the various ABC patterns since the bottom and you have various fib extension drawings for turning points/trading ranges. If you notice the Grey box you see on the far right nothing stopped the move overnight because part of it was there is no confluence of fibo levels in it's path. That move alone was worth 100ticks on futures (i did not catch ;(). Now were starting to enter into a new confluence where the range is 1.0340-1.0410 and above that out of the pic there are a couple 127.2% retraces sitting at 1.05. What I am getting at is we are entering a new range of trading it seems to the upside and if (black swan) occurs the breakdown could be the say grey box area. Bears don't short just yet wait until you see a nice breakdown of ranges

Upcoming Events:
Unemployment Claims
Existing home Sales

I am seeing weakness on dollar all week and were about to purge at these levels to the downside. Here is the argument for why no matter what the number that comes out in claims dollar will be down and commodities/Risk currencies will follow through tomorrow.

I won't speak about Existing home sales as the numbers are pointing to a bottom in this area so they should be in line or beat.

1. QE3 discussion is on the table always! I still don't think before elections but it does not matter what I think only the collective perceptions drive the markets


2. The market has been rallying since 6/4 while everyone is talking Europe and shorting their getting killed and you will start to see some late entries into this move like pensions, Wire houses, Foundations, Retail ect.... but the problem is they have missed a good portion of this move we could see a retest on 1385.

3. Anyone who has done extensive correlation with currencies, commodities, equity markets knows that when people pile back into markets en mass the dollar declines in value. Albeit i know this is an interesting time negative yields, Europe, debt loads but were talking more short term here. Yes there have been times in history where dollar appreciated with the overall markets but that was a more inflationary environment

4. talk to any technician and he will tell you last week on Thursday we traded briefly below the (bear market reversal ) 50% line from the top set earlier this year of 13,338.66 to the low of 13174.65 and mass volume overpowered to the upside. This move for the short term has legs and there are those that were talking doom and gloom who now have to make some money for their clients.



GL all tomorrow and stay the course for this week’s trends