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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #114,401
  • Jul 18, 2012 11:55am Jul 18, 2012 11:55am
A setup i am thinking of. It's getting late now. I will see how things look tomorrow if i could find a good price. Hope someone enjoy my view:

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Mike, how this one looks for you ? Playable or a pass ?
Thanks
  • #114,402
  • Jul 18, 2012 1:10pm Jul 18, 2012 1:10pm
Does somebody know why the spread for audnzd is so high on fxpro?
  • #114,403
  • Jul 18, 2012 1:25pm Jul 18, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting Rust
A setup i am thinking of. It's getting late now. I will see how things look tomorrow if i could find a good price. Hope someone enjoy my view:

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Mike, how this one looks for you ? Playable or a pass ?
Thanks
Not quite strong enough for me, but not a bad one Rust. Think it looks pretty good. I am already short the usd/sek so maybe some more USD weakness with this will pull my trade down too

Best
Mike
  • #114,404
  • Jul 18, 2012 1:26pm Jul 18, 2012 1:26pm
Quoting SlapShot
Does somebody know why the spread for audnzd is so high on fxpro?
Different brokers will offer different spreads. That is not a competitive spread on aud/nzd that's for sure


Best
Mike
  • #114,405
  • Jul 18, 2012 2:01pm Jul 18, 2012 2:01pm
Looking at a possible breakout trade of this area. Double low (almost triple) with a BEOB forming. The setup seems solid to me, but wondering about taking a trade into what appears to be an all-time low for this pair.
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  • #114,406
  • Jul 18, 2012 2:44pm Jul 18, 2012 2:44pm
Hello everybody and massive thanks to james16.

I have heard of this word 'confluence' before. However, being a newbie it was like another random sound in the cacophony of noise of all that endless new info. RSI, Stochs, CCI, EMAs, SMAs, ..............confluence.......bla bla bla......now I am beginning to see that THIS one should be taken seriously. I also like what you said about hiding in the bushes with a rifle as opposed to shooting at anything that moves with a machine gun. Well, I have drawn down from my initial £2600 sterling to £1700 so i only have £900 to recoup, probably by the end of the summer. This thread looks like it is going to help me in this difficult task.
  • #114,407
  • Jul 18, 2012 2:57pm Jul 18, 2012 2:57pm
Quoting jsvihla
Hello everybody and massive thanks to james16.

I have heard of this word 'confluence' before. However, being a newbie it was like another random sound in the cacophony of noise of all that endless new info. RSI, Stochs, CCI, EMAs, SMAs, ..............confluence.......bla bla bla......now I am beginning to see that THIS one should be taken seriously. I also like what you said about hiding in the bushes with a rifle as opposed to shooting at anything that moves with a machine gun. Well, I have drawn down from my initial £2600 sterling to £1700...
Hey Js

Welcome to this thread. We are glad to have you and hope it helps

My first piece of advice is to follow post 1 VERY carefully. Your first step towards treating this as a serious business is to stop live trading and go back to demo. As difficult as that might be for you it's the best piece of advice at the moment anyone could give

Welcome again and hope things help
Mike
  • #114,408
  • Jul 18, 2012 2:58pm Jul 18, 2012 2:58pm
Quoting greenpath
Looking at a possible breakout trade of this area. Double low (almost triple) with a BEOB forming. The setup seems solid to me, but wondering about taking a trade into what appears to be an all-time low for this pair.
on the 4HR just now and barely broke the low by 1 pip (fxPro) on a relatively strong bar (2x ATR). could go either way. waiting for a signal.
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  • #114,409
  • Jul 18, 2012 3:25pm Jul 18, 2012 3:25pm
First time back since July 5th low. Had some momentum in the morning but has slowed down in this afternoon.

Mike, do you take into consideration the velocity with which price approaches a level? To me, because price is basically being stopped in its tracks at the support level, it could bounce and move back towards the upper resistance. Do you see any preemptive signs of a breakout lower?
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  • #114,410
  • Jul 18, 2012 3:29pm Jul 18, 2012 3:29pm
Quoting Mebius
First time back since July 5th low. Had some momentum in the morning but has slowed down in this afternoon.

Mike, do you take into consideration the velocity with which price approaches a level? To me, because price is basically being stopped in its tracks at the support level, it could bounce and move back towards the upper resistance. Do you see any preemptive signs of a breakout lower?
Hey Mebius

I just see that as a box of consolidation in a strong trend. Now the key is when price gets under or above that box. Good chance we get that flip from support to resistance or vice versa. Until the box is broken (specifically price closing under it) I just consider it consolidation range

Best
Mike
  • #114,411
  • Jul 18, 2012 3:44pm Jul 18, 2012 3:44pm
Quoting mbqb11
...I am already short the usd/sek so maybe some more USD weakness with this will pull my trade down too

Best
Mike
4 hour BEOB off the 7.000 maybe ?

Best
Tod
  • #114,412
  • Jul 18, 2012 3:52pm Jul 18, 2012 3:52pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Mebius

I just see that as a box of consolidation in a strong trend. Now the key is when price gets under or above that box. Good chance we get that flip from support to resistance or vice versa. Until the box is broken (specifically price closing under it) I just consider it consolidation range

Best
Mike
So Mike, would you be looking to play the break of the box, or be waiting for a retrace back to this area after a break?
  • #114,413
  • Jul 18, 2012 3:54pm Jul 18, 2012 3:54pm
Quoting greenpath
So Mike, would you be looking to play the break of the box, or be waiting for a retrace back to this area after a break?
I wouldn't really be looking to play either GP. It's too small a box of consolidation. It was a better breakout pattern on the hourly or 4hr due to the size being more significant.

I would be more interested in watching the 1.5 BRN and the previous area of consolidation just under that for this pair

Best
Mike
  • #114,414
  • Jul 18, 2012 3:54pm Jul 18, 2012 3:54pm
Quoting Rust
4 hour BEOB off the 7.000 maybe ?

Best
Tod
  • #114,415
  • Jul 18, 2012 4:55pm Jul 18, 2012 4:55pm
Quoting nwo-trader
Good evening my j16 brothers.

Just thought I would quit lurking momentarily and post this chart. Could catching a 10000 pip move be this simple?

http://imgur.com/7orBA.png
Although the inside bars are my least favorite compared to Pinbars or Outside bars, the EURAUD has been very kind to me the last month and truly has reminded me of this old post of mine.
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Price is beautiful. A repetitive method is a competitive method.
  • #114,416
  • Jul 18, 2012 5:12pm Jul 18, 2012 5:12pm
Quoting rolo1128
Who's watching audnzd? Approaching a nice resistance.

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It does look interesting, but if you take the lower break of the pin bar (which has turned out to be not that brilliant a one), then we would run right into the two EMAs and the 1.286 FTA. One possibility would be to trade short at market with a stop above the bar but thats pretty risky. Doing that also then makes the low of the bar the FTA and thats also at RN 1.2900. Ah well ...

Beans
  • #114,417
  • Jul 18, 2012 5:13pm Jul 18, 2012 5:13pm
I like the GBPUSD price action. You can see a smaller triangle consolidation on the 1 and 4 hour time frames occurring within a much larger triangle consolidation in the daily/weekly time frames. Looks like one to watch.
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  • #114,418
  • Jul 18, 2012 5:55pm Jul 18, 2012 5:55pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Mebius

I just see that as a box of consolidation in a strong trend. Now the key is when price gets under or above that box. Good chance we get that flip from support to resistance or vice versa. Until the box is broken (specifically price closing under it) I just consider it consolidation range

Best
Mike
Mike, it's pretty obvious to me that you are extremely picky and wait for only those level / stories / setups that are extremely convincing. This level as it stands now doesn't meet your criteria. What was the turning point for you in understanding the need to be patient? When I look at a level like this, I don't feel "good" but I still consider trading it. Is that a clue, that my gut doesn't feel quite right?
  • #114,419
  • Jul 18, 2012 6:08pm Jul 18, 2012 6:08pm
Quoting Mebius
Mike, it's pretty obvious to me that you are extremely picky and wait for only those level / stories / setups that are extremely convincing. This level as it stands now doesn't meet your criteria. What was the turning point for you in understanding the need to be patient? When I look at a level like this, I don't feel "good" but I still consider trading it. Is that a clue, that my gut doesn't feel quite right?
Well often times I can look at many levels areas and have an idea where price is going, things often pan out etc. But that doesn't feel "good" is often a bad sign of how you will manage it and end up sabotaging yourself when the better ones are around the corner. Of course everyone puts this stuff together slightly different and there is no 100% right or wrong way. This is where time and experience will pay a huge factor. I have seen enough scenarios where I now have a better idea of what I am looking at for my particular method. In this case the consolidation area just doesn't provide a big enough area to trade from a daily perspective based on PA and how I trade breakouts. It is also not a significant enough pattern rather just a box of consolidation. If you look at the 4hr there was a better flag patter that was more concise and respected by the market. That has better opportunity for me then this type of scenario. So while I think price has a good chance of breaking under and holding as resistance does it warrant my $$$. That's always the ultimate question

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #114,420
  • Jul 18, 2012 6:18pm Jul 18, 2012 6:18pm
Quoting beans
It does look interesting, but if you take the lower break of the pin bar (which has turned out to be not that brilliant a one), then we would run right into the two EMAs and the 1.286 FTA. One possibility would be to trade short at market with a stop above the bar but thats pretty risky. Doing that also then makes the low of the bar the FTA and thats also at RN 1.2900. Ah well ...

Beans
I agree! This bar has closed closer to the center of the bar then the bottom. I also agree about the 1.29 area too. I would prefer the price action to be at the 1.3 area though.
The Eyes Believe What They See And The Ears Believe What Others Say.
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