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AUD/USD

  • #50,501
  • Jul 18, 2012 5:26am Jul 18, 2012 5:26am
Quoting jplazard
Good point I see that were in a range of 1.0290-1.0320 I most likely picked a not so good entry and that aud (as we speak ) is heading to the upper range but I do have a stop loss at 1.0334 but if we hit that level /DX will more that likely be near 83 again and this time it might grow a pair and fall through
Until USD turns on at least M3/M5 nothing is set in stone anyways. The current AUD upside is - at the moment - as bad as the downside was so
  • #50,502
  • Jul 18, 2012 5:28am Jul 18, 2012 5:28am
1.3 is a good place for a short TP 1.0260, 1.0335 for long. But a short look more attractive to me.
  • #50,503
  • Jul 18, 2012 5:29am Jul 18, 2012 5:29am
when you say M3 M5 are you referring to Minute 3&5 or other?
  • #50,504
  • Jul 18, 2012 5:31am Jul 18, 2012 5:31am
Quoting jplazard
when you say M3 M5 are you referring to Minute 3&5 or other?
yes
  • #50,505
  • Jul 18, 2012 5:35am Jul 18, 2012 5:35am
i can see a bearish RSI along with a bearish drop in volume as prices rise.
however the trend is bouncing nicely off the uptrending line.
tough one as the trend line, top Fib line and the resistance line all come into convercence over the next couple of days.
2 bearish signals versus 3 support lines. not sure whos side to be on. I might wait to see what fundamentles which might push them either way to decide.
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  • #50,506
  • Jul 18, 2012 5:39am Jul 18, 2012 5:39am
I see. Yes I am in agreeance that untill we break through 82.85 with some volume then we will be range here for the week or trade back up to the YTD high 83.985 again. My target is 82.20 but we will see once the dust settles from Ben, Starts, Unemployment claims the window for direction should be wide open on Friday if we are still in a range after digesting all the Fundie.

AUD/USD I personally think will reach 1.04 based on ABC analysis and Fib extensions but that is not the discussion here Dollar is

Dollar has closed lower each day since the new YTD high set below and I don't take 3 days down as an indicator but it does help as a barometer of weather we will see that purge lower or if the demand is there and the trend is just on break
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  • #50,507
  • Jul 18, 2012 5:43am Jul 18, 2012 5:43am
Quoting jplazard
I see. Yes I am in agreeance that untill we break through 82.85 with some volume then we will be range here for the week or trade back up to the YTD high 83.985 again. My target is 82.20 but we will see once the dust settles from Ben, Starts, Unemployment claims the window for direction should be wide open on Friday if we are still in a range after digesting all the Fundie.

AUD/USD I personally think will reach 1.04 based on ABC analysis and Fib extensions but that is not the discussion here Dollar is

Dollar has closed lower each day since the...
Yeah shortterm its about EU holding that 37 or 07 area. If it does we could be looking a lot higher in EU which depending on the minors could push AU up to uncomfortable levels for new shorts.

Right now we are looking at usdjpy probably in anticipation of Bernie. AU EU slightly up, AJ/EJ down -> UJ down. As I said the current upside is as bad as the downside was so far.
  • #50,508
  • Jul 18, 2012 5:52am Jul 18, 2012 5:52am
Are the AUD bears still maintaining their bear stance even though it seems like even with this low liquidity, things are not going too smooth for them..
  • #50,509
  • Jul 18, 2012 5:54am Jul 18, 2012 5:54am
Agreed. AUD/USD at 1.04-1.05 levels would be a dream short because by that time /ES could be well above 1385 dollar would be trading near it's big trend support all while the crap hits the fan again with redemptons coming due, Possible US downgrade, lack of singular though or process in the EU a boatload of upcoming events heading into the end of this year..

But That is way really far out at the moment I will not be greedy and only wish for /dx to hit 82.20
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  • #50,510
  • Jul 18, 2012 5:59am Jul 18, 2012 5:59am
Hello ESSEX i switched and cut half of my position right after China GDP then cut the rest before the NY open and went long. The whole parity argument was based on lower than expected GDP when that did not materalize I was out like donkey Kong...

Then before I US open when we had that spike I went Long and also went SHORT /DX future becuase we reached 88.6% see chart above in previous post... Now I am not in the bear camp (until 1.04) but I am in the bear camp on Dollar
  • #50,511
  • Jul 18, 2012 6:08am Jul 18, 2012 6:08am
Quoting jplazard
Hello ESSEX i switched and cut half of my position right after China GDP then cut the rest before the NY open and went long. The whole parity argument was based on lower than expected GDP when that did not materalize I was out like donkey Kong...

Then before I US open when we had that spike I went Long and also went SHORT /DX future becuase we reached 88.6% see chart above in previous post... Now I am not in the bear camp (until 1.04) but I am in the bear camp on Dollar
Great. At least you know when to cover when proven wrong.

I am still very much an AUD bull til the markets prove me wrong and have my defensive measures in place. Still smooth sailing for me thus far.
  • #50,512
  • Jul 18, 2012 6:17am Jul 18, 2012 6:17am
Looks like that!
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  • #50,513
  • Jul 18, 2012 6:18am Jul 18, 2012 6:18am
Very nice you have caught a trend that I was fighting best of luck today
  • #50,514
  • Jul 18, 2012 6:58am Jul 18, 2012 6:58am
Quoting MidasFG
Looks like that!

nice chart!

and agree with your bias
fokyou forexfactory
  • #50,515
  • Jul 18, 2012 6:58am Jul 18, 2012 6:58am
Looks like bullish wedge breakout but could be capped around 1.0330, looking to sell there due to rising wedge TL aiming for 1.0200.
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Don't get mad, get even!
  • #50,516
  • Jul 18, 2012 7:03am Jul 18, 2012 7:03am
Quoting DNTme
nice chart!

and agree with your bias
You can try to stop short of 1.30. TP 1.0209. What do you think?
  • #50,517
  • Jul 18, 2012 7:20am Jul 18, 2012 7:20am
Quoting MidasFG
You can try to stop short of 1.30. TP 1.0209. What do you think?
already short from 0305 from this morning

Quoting DNTme
short aussie 0305 sl 0317 tp 0250-0233

if aussie get help from snp and dollarx, this week we can see 1.0040 (38%) and next week 0.9950 (50%) or even 0.9865 (61%)
fokyou forexfactory
  • #50,518
  • Jul 18, 2012 7:22am Jul 18, 2012 7:22am
is it me, or everyone always feels that risk currencies especially eur get dumped in US sessions too often?
  • #50,519
  • Jul 18, 2012 7:32am Jul 18, 2012 7:32am
Per my /DX short if it breaks through or heads back down to 83 today look for the next range trading at 1.0320-1.0335 from there if we break out to the upside the 127.2% is set at 1.0373 for top range today if we break out to the upside.

I am short AUD/USD as a hedge to my DX short and have a level of 1.0260 but if we come back up like yesterdays price action look to the trading levels at the 78.6-88.6 above and the 127.2% as the topping level. GL all today
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  • #50,520
  • Jul 18, 2012 7:47am Jul 18, 2012 7:47am
i hate this 23 pips range
fokyou forexfactory
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