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AUD/USD

  • #50,341
  • Jul 17, 2012 12:14pm Jul 17, 2012 12:14pm
Quoting bguguen
AUDUSD has a Top of range at 1.06ish and a bottom of the range at 0.96 ish, you can already see me shorting at 1.02 is actually a good place to do so.... why??
But what if it breaks above that top range of 1.06? Ranges do get broken. Would you exit the entire position then?
  • #50,342
  • Jul 17, 2012 12:18pm Jul 17, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting england33
OMG you can't be serious. You will never make it that way if you have to be able to withstand it going to zero. Even in the worst market you have the time to change your position.
Well of course i do tak the chance to change positoin thats why today i was saying...... if we have a confirmed break of 1.03 i would consider Longing.....
But we didnt break and i shorted at 1.0295 today for 50 pips profit just before Ben's speech
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #50,343
  • Jul 17, 2012 12:20pm Jul 17, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting Aldente
But what if it breaks above that top range of 1.06? Ranges do get broken. Would you exit the entire position then?
When it breaks ranges to create new highs, thats when i start hedging out gradually to change my bias and my direction of trade...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #50,344
  • Jul 17, 2012 12:22pm Jul 17, 2012 12:22pm
Quoting bguguen
Well of course i do tak the chance to change positoin thats why today i was saying...... if we have a confirmed break of 1.03 i would consider Longing.....
But we didnt break and i shorted at 1.0295 today for 50 pips profit just before Ben's speech
ok I see lol.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #50,345
  • Jul 17, 2012 12:23pm Jul 17, 2012 12:23pm
Quoting england33
ok I see lol.
as for my shorts from 1.0170, 1.0200 and 1.0230...
that'll have to wait for the next round of Bottom Testing.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #50,346
  • Jul 17, 2012 12:26pm Jul 17, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting bguguen
as for my shorts from 1.0170, 1.0200 and 1.0230...
that'll have to wait for the next round of Bottom Testing.....
Hey if the results are good that's all that matters.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #50,347
  • Jul 17, 2012 12:34pm Jul 17, 2012 12:34pm
Quoting bguguen
Heres the thing yes im not as experienced, but heres the thing for me... i used to trade stocks and family trades physical gold.... little did i know they could hold onto their position even if it ran below their positions, here comes the MONEY MANAGEMENT side to things.... when you trade something... you need to factor in for example if Gold is at 1600 USD... you need to make sure you have enough equity to even withstand Gold going all the way down to 0 USD....



1 year ago I would've agreed with you. Now, a little older and wiser, I do not.

I...
It's all about R:R. In your example, gold, you want enough equity to to hold all the way to zero. So you can't use any leverage. Your position size is tiny, especially if you want to add to it. I call this "low baller status" For a 1:1 r/r, you need a TP at 3200. That will take forever. Ok so you target 1800.. risking 1600 pips for 200? You need to win 8 out of 9 trades to B/E. No thanks..

With your AUD trade.. yes, I agree with that. It's a decent R/R trade. But your targets are far away which will take a while. And again, you are risking 400 pips! That means tiny little lot sizes again. I would never have the patience for such a small gain.

I will let you know. I used to trade like this. I thought it was great, my account balance was always growing.. until the day you get so far underwater you can't stand it any more. And that day will come.

Patience is a key for me these days. Wait for the price to come to you. You will miss out on a few trades. Who cares? It doesn't cost a dime. But when the trade comes to you, you will have a much smaller S/L and exponentially larger lot sizes and profits. In the AUD case for example (not a practical example, more theoretical).. If 1.06 is the risk. Wait for the price to come to 1.059 before you short. You can use a 10 pip SL instead of 400. That means you can use a lot size 40 times larger and risk the same amount. The rule of thumb is to risk 1% of your account. Every 10 pips it moves in your direction you make 1%. Your target is 0.96. So you make 100%. Whereas shorting at 1.02 will only gain 2%. Now which one would you prefer?
  • #50,348
  • Jul 17, 2012 12:38pm Jul 17, 2012 12:38pm
Quoting FXMindset
a very Good Post - very wise - again
Wisdom = Knowing one's limit under the sun
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daddybearforex. com
  • #50,349
  • Jul 17, 2012 12:40pm Jul 17, 2012 12:40pm
Quoting diggo
1.0245 short closed at B/E

Re-entered short again @ 1.0293. Stops just above todays high @ 1.0311

May move stops to B/E very soon and then sleep on it. Will wait for the all time mid of the Euro to look to take profit (E/U 1.2132ish).
Woops didn't get a chance to move to B/E. Too busy posting on here!

Added one more short @ 1.0301, giving just 10 pips
  • #50,350
  • Jul 17, 2012 12:51pm Jul 17, 2012 12:51pm
H4 is showing me a divergence, I think we are due for a correction, watch the 1.0317 area. Good luck
  • #50,351
  • Jul 17, 2012 12:55pm Jul 17, 2012 12:55pm
Quoting diggo
Woops didn't get a chance to move to B/E. Too busy posting on here!

Added one more short @ 1.0301, giving just 10 pips
1.0305-31 may cap it for tonight. Perhaps we can get a low gradient descending TL going here. In the event 1.031 is breached, I have my stops @ 1.0312

Will then look for some final shorts as close to 1.033 as possible. With tight stops of course.
  • #50,352
  • Jul 17, 2012 1:04pm Jul 17, 2012 1:04pm
Quoting diggo
1.0305-31 may cap it for tonight. Perhaps we can get a low gradient descending TL going here. In the event 1.031 is breached, I have my stops @ 1.0312

Will then look for some final shorts as close to 1.033 as possible. With tight stops of course.
Sorry I can't post a chart.. But you can see on the daily/H4 a descending TL dating back to late March. Still capping the AUD. Right at the roof as I type. Worth a short at this level with only a tiny stop necessary. Great R/R here
  • #50,353
  • Jul 17, 2012 1:10pm Jul 17, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting diggo
1.0305-31 may cap it
Will be interesting to see if it forms a double top on the daily 'round about there.

Time will tell.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #50,354
  • Jul 17, 2012 1:16pm Jul 17, 2012 1:16pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Wisdom = Knowing one's limit under the sun
The Aussie will drop from this point. But, the scenario of the upcoming episodes is not what the bears have been thinking. If the bears still see half of the picture now, they shall be able to see the other half in the very near future. -IMHO-

Note: Trade with your own judgements and decisions!
daddybearforex. com
  • #50,355
  • Jul 17, 2012 1:17pm Jul 17, 2012 1:17pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
Will be interesting to see if it forms a double top on the daily 'round about there.

Time will tell.
Certainly worth a shot at a short at this level. r/r is too good to pass up.
  • #50,356
  • Jul 17, 2012 1:19pm Jul 17, 2012 1:19pm
Quoting diggo
Sorry I can't post a chart.. But you can see on the daily/H4 a descending TL dating back to late March. Still capping the AUD. Right at the roof as I type. Worth a short at this level with only a tiny stop necessary. Great R/R here
This same line acted as support 4 or 5 times in February!
  • #50,357
  • Jul 17, 2012 1:20pm Jul 17, 2012 1:20pm
Quoting diggo
Certainly worth a shot at a short at this level. r/r is too good to pass up.
I agree. If I lose a few. WTF ( "few" duly noted by moi )
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #50,358
  • Jul 17, 2012 1:21pm Jul 17, 2012 1:21pm
Quoting daddybear
the aussie will drop from this point. But, the scenario of the upcoming episodes is not what the bears have been thinking. If the bears still see half of the picture now, they shall be able to see the other half in the very near future. -imho-

note: Trade with your own judgements and decisions!
crazy thing is that the aussie is riding the euro back if you look at aussie unemplyment record from last thursday and current data this is no where near should be trading where it is currently trading/ it is clearly riding on euros hope... Commodities such gold is down which is bad for aussie yet its still showing strength... And i alos noted it goes up with the euro but doesnt go down with it perhaps moddys have a downgrade rating for it since the gov appreciated te rating so much
  • #50,359
  • Jul 17, 2012 1:34pm Jul 17, 2012 1:34pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
I agree. If I lose a few. WTF ( "few" duly noted by moi )


One last short @ 1.0308, SL only 7 pips

My other shorts (293/301) also moved SL to 1.0315

It's 4:30am here.. time to sleep
  • #50,360
  • Jul 17, 2012 1:35pm Jul 17, 2012 1:35pm
Quoting diggo


time to sleep

best of luck !!
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
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