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Fail Better

  • #3,961
  • Jul 13, 2012 1:29am Jul 13, 2012 1:29am
Quoting benem
Short NzdUsd
A thing of beauty.
  • #3,962
  • Jul 13, 2012 4:30am Jul 13, 2012 4:30am
Quoting Mebius
Could someone confirm for me if this BEOB is also what Tom would consider an SFP on the AUDNZD Daily? And if so, what do you think about it's location for a potential short?

Thank you.
/a.
As others have said, this is not an SFP. Neither is it a bearish engulfing outside bar which Wizard uses for bias. The reason for this is because it does not close lower than the low of the previous bar. For an example of an engulfing bar, see the bullish engulfing on USD/JPY from 2 days ago (11 July). You will see that it has a lower low than the previous bar (it does not have to open below the low) and it closes above the high of the previous bar.
  • #3,963
  • Jul 13, 2012 4:35am Jul 13, 2012 4:35am
wait for space and retest....
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  • #3,964
  • Jul 13, 2012 5:07am Jul 13, 2012 5:07am
Quoting benem
Short NzdUsd
This is a great, clean level but I didn't take it because the minor FTA at 7912 didn't give me a good enough R:R.

Where are you targeting to take profit? I'm probably still being more conservative than I need to be in placing my FTAs, but until I have a a better feel I would rather be conservative and improve my strike rate.
  • #3,965
  • Jul 13, 2012 5:13am Jul 13, 2012 5:13am
Quoting BadgerMatt
This is a great, clean level but I didn't take it because the minor FTA at 7912 didn't give me a good enough R:R.

Where are you targeting to take profit? I'm probably still being more conservative than I need to be in placing my FTAs, but until I have a a better feel I would rather be conservative and improve my strike rate.
I've gone for the swing high that also matches up with the 38% fib.
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  • #3,966
  • Jul 13, 2012 6:40am Jul 13, 2012 6:40am
Quoting BadgerMatt
This is a great, clean level but I didn't take it because the minor FTA at 7912 didn't give me a good enough R:R.

Where are you targeting to take profit? I'm probably still being more conservative than I need to be in placing my FTAs, but until I have a a better feel I would rather be conservative and improve my strike rate.
here is my profit target....
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Patience is essential
  • #3,967
  • Jul 13, 2012 7:44am Jul 13, 2012 7:44am
Quoting Mebius
Could someone confirm for me if this BEOB is also what Tom would consider an SFP on the AUDNZD Daily? And if so, what do you think about it's location for a potential short?

Thank you.
/a.
Thanks for all the replies. Do you consider SPF bars that form on the next bar after a Swing High/Swing Low bar (on D1) or is there a higher probability when the SFP comes after a few bars?
Attached Image
  • #3,968
  • Jul 13, 2012 7:49am Jul 13, 2012 7:49am
Quoting Mebius
Thanks for all the replies. Do you consider SPF bars that form on the next bar after a Swing High/Swing Low bar (on D1) or is there a higher probability when the SFP comes after a few bars?
The swing point needs to be a deep swing so it needs to move into the swing point and then move away from the swing point, could say that it needs to be in a 'V' formation. Therefore the SFP can't be on the bar next to the swing point.

I would recommend reading this whole thread -it's well worth the effort and will give you a much better understanding on what constitutes a valid SFP.
  • #3,969
  • Jul 13, 2012 7:59am Jul 13, 2012 7:59am
Quoting jeffokes
Tom,
You pointed out something that was a really eye opener to me during the last webinar - the correlation between s&p and AU (chart1 is Gold/AU, chart2 is AU/s&p). Before then I had always used more of Gold and AU correlation, the charts below prove you too right. Thanks a lot man!!!

You also answerred my question on which of DOW and S&P is more considerred by traders, your answer was S&P, i however observe that the media cites DOW more even msnbc, I don't know if you also notice that...I am wondering why?
Hi Jeff,

I was going through the Fail Better posts and came across your chart. Can you tell me how to superimpose your charts in mt4 like you did for AUDUSD / S&P? I asked support and FxPro and they don't know how you did that.

Thanks,
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  • #3,970
  • Jul 13, 2012 8:01am Jul 13, 2012 8:01am
Quoting mazdaq100
The swing point needs to be a deep swing so it needs to move into the swing point and then move away from the swing point, could say that it needs to be in a 'V' formation. Therefore the SFP can't be on the bar next to the swing point.

I would recommend reading this whole thread -it's well worth the effort and will give you a much better understanding on what constitutes a valid SFP.
on pg 89 as we speak
  • #3,971
  • Jul 13, 2012 8:35am Jul 13, 2012 8:35am
Well I got done over shorting this pair earlier but I'm still taking this SFP after breaching the ATR.
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  • #3,972
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:57am Jul 13, 2012 10:57am
Quoting BadgerMatt
This is a great, clean level but I didn't take it because the minor FTA at 7912 didn't give me a good enough R:R.

Where are you targeting to take profit? I'm probably still being more conservative than I need to be in placing my FTAs, but until I have a a better feel I would rather be conservative and improve my strike rate.
I know what you mean. I muffed this one right up, got out for BE but I wasn't in control.

The R:R problem and the way the swing came up 5pips short beforehand should have had me on the sidelines.

I was targeting 7903.
  • #3,973
  • Jul 14, 2012 12:14pm Jul 14, 2012 12:14pm
Not a market I'm very familiar with but this is one prime looking SFP... Pin bar with an unfilled gap.
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  • #3,974
  • Jul 14, 2012 11:21pm Jul 14, 2012 11:21pm
Quoting C-12
Not a market I'm very familiar with but this is one prime looking SFP... Pin bar with an unfilled gap.
looks very good - but usually the sfp candle should close above the level.

regards

  • #3,975
  • Jul 15, 2012 1:08pm Jul 15, 2012 1:08pm
Quoting astock
looks very good - but usually the sfp candle should close above the level.

regards

No that chart is definitely an SFP. You want price to exceed the prior swing level but close below it.

It was actually the previous bar that was the SFP. The pin bar just added some extra weight to it.
  • #3,976
  • Edited 8:45pm Jul 15, 2012 8:24pm | Edited 8:45pm
usdchf 1h chart ... wating
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WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
  • #3,977
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:31am Jul 16, 2012 5:31am
Looking for a short on USDJPY
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  • #3,978
  • Jul 16, 2012 11:05am Jul 16, 2012 11:05am
H1 SFP on EUR/USD.
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  • #3,979
  • Jul 16, 2012 2:51pm Jul 16, 2012 2:51pm
Quoting BadgerMatt
H1 SFP on EUR/USD.
I'm a bit concerned about playing SFP's on the H1 as a few of the ones I've taken so far have failed (although I admit I haven't tested them thoroughly enough).

Definitely going to continue to use them on the D1 but just for directional bias only. So far I prefer to have my orders sat right on the S&R levels.
  • #3,980
  • Jul 17, 2012 1:53am Jul 17, 2012 1:53am
my setups...what is everyone else watching this week?
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