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AUD/USD

  • #50,121
  • Jul 16, 2012 10:27am Jul 16, 2012 10:27am
Quoting Niranj
GU which is killing me at the moment
GU will touch the H4 descending line. Maybe around 1.5650 will be a good place to sell.
"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
  • #50,122
  • Jul 16, 2012 10:28am Jul 16, 2012 10:28am
bears calculate your margin ,us $ index in free fall,eu ,gu,nu,au on bull side
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #50,123
  • Jul 16, 2012 10:34am Jul 16, 2012 10:34am
Quoting KiNgEdwarD
bears calculate your margin ,us $ index in free fall,eu ,gu,nu,au on bull side

It's always amazing to me how volatile the market becomes. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/note-h...-bounce-market

i think that's what happened
  • #50,124
  • Jul 16, 2012 10:37am Jul 16, 2012 10:37am
Quoting littlemole
I noticed something, but not so sure. In the last few days the AUD was very strong. It didn't correlate with the other major USD pairs. If the EURUSD falled 50 PIPs, it maybe falled 20 PIPS. But now, after the US news the EURUSD and GBPUSD flied about 50 PIPS and the AUDUSD only rised 25 PIPs. And I see it rather want to fall. What happened? Maybe the investors afraid about the Monetary Meetings?
Am I wrong?
calculate pips is not very accurate. GBP 50 pips is smaller than AUD 50 pips.

simply because if you buy 100K unit GBP, you need 150000 USD if exchange rate at 1.5000 (for simplicity) while to buy 100K unit AUD, you need only 102000 USD. --- in real world, no leverage world, exchange paper by paper money for example...

if you calculate based on return of capital (or investment), you can see AUD is very closely with NZD in change of return of our capital. and NZD can be leading than AUD (but in very small amount of time).
  • #50,125
  • Jul 16, 2012 10:38am Jul 16, 2012 10:38am
Quoting KiNgEdwarD
bears calculate your margin ,us $ index in free fall,eu ,gu,nu,au on bull side
This is all bullsiht, I think "we" don't have to worry. On med-term and long-term the trend is bearish. They will kill some stops and tomorrow it will continue it's direction to south. For the rest of the day: US will eat something, so we will have some correction, after we'll see new highs. For example: I have a sell order on [email protected], maybe it reach 1.5660
And tomorrow when everybody realises that Bernake won't start another QE then it can fall again.
"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
  • #50,126
  • Jul 16, 2012 10:41am Jul 16, 2012 10:41am
Quoting redbox
calculate pips is not very accurate. GBP 50 pips is smaller than AUD 50 pips.

simply because if you buy 100K unit GBP, you need 150000 USD if exchange rate at 1.5000 (for simplicity) while to buy 100K unit AUD, you need only 102000 USD. --- in real world, no leverage world, exchange paper by paper money for example...

if you calculate based on return of capital (or investment), you can see AUD is very closely with NZD in change of return of our capital. and NZD can be leading than AUD (but in very small amount of time).
You are right, and I know these ratios too. But beside of these facts, the demand on AUD was lesser today.
"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
  • #50,127
  • Jul 16, 2012 11:33am Jul 16, 2012 11:33am
Quoting DaddyBear
While working on a sketch of the Earth on the Moon, the bear believed in what he saw until .......
Last night, some members asked me to present my chart to support my bullish view. I did not think it was necessary. First I was not trying to persuade anybody to follow me. Second, I have nothing to present because my chart is very simple. I don't use candlesticks and most indicators any more. Currently, I only use average price line chart, FIB and ADX. After trading for so many years, I have come to realize the meaning of "less is more."

After US retail sales, the Aussie's bullish pattern becomes much clearer. (This has nothing to do with the rally after the news.) However, a final bear leg has to be in place before Aussie can move up.

Last night, I presented an opening cartoon of this week: Semi-Ball. some bears wanted to see a chart for the sake of arguing. I believe in one principle: respecting others' view regardless of whether it's bullish or bearish. However, I'd like to present my vision with a cartoon. Semi-Ball implies the half picture seen by most Aussie bears. As to what I see is something cannot be communicated. The reason is while most bears using fundies, TL, SMA, R/S and etc., I am using none of them. In other words, the bears and I speak different languages which cannot communicate to each other. Even they do speak some of my language, the level of understanding is different as well. Personally, I don't think giving a straight answer will make my point any clearer. To understand something 180-degree opposite to one's fixed thinking, one has to open his mind completely and I don't see it is possible for 99 out of 100 people to do so.

This is the reason DaddyBear's cartoons come to play. Any person who is not too smart to see the simple and direct messages in DB's cartoons would be able to look into his own argument and to see if something is missing. If any of them can see my point in DB's cartoons and avoids losing a chunk of his money, I would think it's the best reward to me in this Forex market.

Disclosure: I am still holding my short entered at 1.023xx.

Attention:
DaddyBear's cartoons are not indicators. Please do not apply them to your charts because they won't fit anyway.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #50,128
  • Jul 16, 2012 11:44am Jul 16, 2012 11:44am
Quoting DaddyBear
Last night, some members asked me to present my chart to support my bullish view. I did not think it was necessary. First I was not trying to persuade anybody to follow me. Second, I have nothing to present because my chart is very simple. I don't use candlesticks and most indicators any more. Currently, I only use average price line chart, FIB and ADX. After trading for so many years, I have come to realize the meaning of "less is more."

After US retail sales, the Aussie's bullish pattern becomes much clearer. (This has nothing to do with the...
Respect, but you know it's hard to communicate and hard to have a common language when you can't tell us why are you with the bulls. So here comes the argument when a bear supports his view with fundis and charts and if one of them ask you why are you bull bias then you draw something and you say "As to what I see is something cannot communicated". So it is hard to understand each other. (Unless you want to not understand you)
"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
  • #50,129
  • Jul 16, 2012 11:54am Jul 16, 2012 11:54am
Quoting littlemole
Respect, but you know it's hard to communicate and hard to have a common language when you can't tell us why are you with the bulls. So here comes the argument when a bear supports his view with fundis and charts and if one of them ask you why are you bull bias then you draw something and you say "As to what I see is something cannot communicated". So it is hard to understand each other. (Unless you want to not understand you)
I don't think anyone speaks his language except him....
  • #50,130
  • Jul 16, 2012 11:58am Jul 16, 2012 11:58am
Quoting littlemole
Respect, but you know it's hard to communicate and hard to have a common language when you can't tell us why are you with the bulls. So here comes the argument when a bear supports his view with fundis and charts and if one of them ask you why are you bull bias then you draw something and you say "As to what I see is something cannot communicated". So it is hard to understand each other. (Unless you want to not understand you)
My bullish vision has nothing to do with any bulls in this forum. I did not exchange or take any ideas from them. I have been making my decisions independently for a long time. Even everybody joints the bear camp, I still keep my vision.

Furthermore this is a forum not a classroom. We express our views or exchange some ideas. Whether or not going into details is up to each member to decide based on his judgement.

I tried to explain my views in details before in this forum. There were about half a dozen people came to denounce my views without any understanding of the foundation of my views. This is why I believe it's better not going into the details. Leaving some room for people to figure out is the best.
daddybearforex. com
  • #50,131
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:06pm Jul 16, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting DaddyBear
My bullish vision has nothing to do with any bulls in this forum. I did not exchange or take any ideas from them. I have been making my decisions independently for a long time. Even everybody joints the bear camp, I still keep my vision.

Furthermore this is a forum not a classroom. We express our views or exchange some ideas. Whether or not going into details is up to each member to decide based on his judgement.

I tried to explain my view in details before in this forum. There were about half a dozen people came to denounce my views without...
I think a lot of analysts go with that option. If you try to explain a situation, it's almost impossible because, it's never a static situation, so you have to describe the fundament/technical/news, price action you are seeing, and then to do whatever else based upon the rolling outcomes of each event, way too complex to teach somebody how you trade exactly or what you WILL do when you don't even know yet.

Even if you wanted to for kindness...you sure as hell don't want to simplify it and become a signaling service with buy here, sell here with stop here, etc....because yeah, even if you have a winning record, it's still not likely somebody could follow all your trades, especially if you have a reward:risk of say 3:1 and LOSE 60% WIN 40% of your trades. That's what always gets people.....they'll miss out on your winner for 3xs, and instead they'll log 2-3 loser trades and call you names......certainly can't please people
  • #50,132
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:12pm Jul 16, 2012 12:12pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Last night, some members asked me to present my chart to support my bullish view. I did not think it was necessary. First I was not trying to persuade anybody to follow me. Second, I have nothing to present because my chart is very simple. I don't use candlesticks and most indicators any more. Currently, I only use average price line chart, FIB and ADX. After trading for so many years, I have come to realize the meaning of "less is more."

After US retail sales, the Aussie's bullish pattern becomes much clearer. (This has nothing to do with...
I love your cartoon
so cute
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #50,133
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:15pm Jul 16, 2012 12:15pm
Quoting lolygagv2
I think a lot of analysts go with that option. If you try to explain a situation, it's almost impossible because, it's never a static situation, so you have to describe the fundament/technical/news, price action you are seeing, and then to do whatever else based upon the rolling outcomes of each event, way too complex to teach somebody how you trade exactly or what you WILL do when you don't even know yet.

Even if you wanted to for kindness...you sure as hell don't want to simplify it and become a signaling service with buy here, sell here with...
You have read my mind. Thanks.
daddybearforex. com
  • #50,134
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:18pm Jul 16, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting FXMindset
I love your cartoon
so cute
おはようございます!


FXMindset, Why did you change your "photo"? I like the previous one better.
daddybearforex. com
  • #50,135
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:20pm Jul 16, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting DaddyBear
My bullish vision has nothing to do with any bulls in this forum. I did not exchange or take any ideas from them. I have been making my decisions independently for a long time. Even everybody joints the bear camp, I still keep my vision.

Furthermore this is a forum not a classroom. We express our views or exchange some ideas. Whether or not going into details is up to each member to decide based on his judgement.

I tried to explain my views in details before in this forum. There were about half a dozen people came to denounce my views without...
All that matters is that you understand yourself.
  • #50,136
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:24pm Jul 16, 2012 12:24pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
All that matters is that you understand yourself.
2+2=4ex, thanks for your kind words and understanding.
daddybearforex. com
  • #50,137
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:32pm Jul 16, 2012 12:32pm
I took a buy in AU at 1.0227 target 25 pips

http://spartan-trader.blogspot.in
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  • #50,138
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:33pm Jul 16, 2012 12:33pm
Quoting DaddyBear
2+2=4ex, thanks for your kind words and understanding.
In life or even Trading,Whatever other people said,you need keep stand what you are believe from what you are seeing
As long you know where is your limit/stop
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #50,139
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:35pm Jul 16, 2012 12:35pm
My personal outlook
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #50,140
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:41pm Jul 16, 2012 12:41pm
Quoting FXMindset
My personal outlook
Nearly the same
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"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
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