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AUD/USD

  • #49,941
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:27pm Jul 15, 2012 8:27pm
Quoting jplazard
Hey djam go back a couple pages startingon todays open i will post some commodity charts and talk more on the dollar volume experienced friday when i get to my screens as i am mobile right now.. The charts on dollar are back a couple pages.

Dollar is overbought only to get rejected several times last week on 84level and a daily fibo level was hit so i am short dollar future and will be long risk assets once volume picks up on monday
and this is why we have a market, u sold me dollar index i bot it from you, simple as that, already made 5% on ttl account on trade and left 1/3 with s/l in the money, why bother changing it ?
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #49,942
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:33pm Jul 15, 2012 8:33pm
Quoting bguguen
Hi Tom Spin, i totally agree on the 200 SMA guarding the resistance and it sure looks like hefty orders there, the last time we dropped to the trendline happened exactly at the 200 SMA on daily chart...
i have placed short orders accordingly to it....
in fact longer term trendline we've been in a bearish trend ever since the top at around 1.08 and next top of around 1.05
The last time I posted a comment concerning SMA's affecting or being an influence on PA, I got corrected by Stulic but didn't get any explanation other than "PA doesn't follow MA's, it's the other way around". I'm a perpetual student of trading and always happy to hear another traders perspective.

My charts today....

PA gapped up and performed the more common "close the gap" rather quickly before finding some reisistance coincidently at the 5 min 125 SMA again (or could be the 125 just happens to be on the median line that I've been watching for the past couple of days).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled 10.jpg Size: 195 KB


The Gap this morning opened almost exactly on my 4 hour bearish trend line before closing the gap.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled 7.jpg Size: 234 KB


Now watching for a triangle formation and a break of it to decide direction.

Although looking at the big picture on a daily chart from 2008 till now, and the fact that PA has fallen below and retested the bottom of the long term bullish trend line, I am biased to the down side. Add in the potential of the RBA cutting rates again, adds to that.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled 9.jpg Size: 162 KB


I welcome any thoughts, comments and perspectives.
  • #49,943
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:37pm Jul 15, 2012 8:37pm
Quoting DonL
The last time I posted a comment concerning SMA's affecting or being an influence on PA, I got corrected by Stulic but didn't get any explanation other than "PA doesn't follow MA's, it's the other way around". I'm a perpetual student of trading and always happy to hear another traders perspective.

My charts today....

PA gapped up and performed the more common "close the gap" rather quickly before finding some reisistance coincidently at the 5 min 125 SMA again (or could be the 125 just happens to be on the median line that I've been watching...
Your analysis is bang on, but a lot of Bulls around here build up their analysis that it will keep going up, problem is we have broken below that upwards trendline and today, we have a failure to break above the Downwards trendline, most likely going to 1.0000 parity first before we know the next move, if its bullish overall 1.0000 will show hints this time...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,944
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:41pm Jul 15, 2012 8:41pm
Im not certain what your position is right now on AUD/USD but yes i entered the first leg of the /dx short at the open today and will increase the short as we come to the 83.55-60 level. As for AUD outlook i am flat i will look to set up a long as NY approaches this week if we dont experience a black swan euro issue the equity, commodity, and certain fx will appreciate this week. Risk is fully on maybe not monday as the spikes were overshot but tuesday and the rest of the week i will have my shopping cart

I never focus on Sundays fluctuation too much as the noise gets drowned out once vol picks up so if you already locked in profits congrats but i am setting this up as a trade for the week
  • #49,945
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:42pm Jul 15, 2012 8:42pm
Hey BG God knows I'm with u on this pair going down in the medium to long term. I think now though is the time for longs possibly in the 1.01939 area (100SMA) or the bollinger band (1.02019) both on the hourly charts. I think the trend in the short term is up for a move to 1.032-1.034 area.
  • #49,946
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:47pm Jul 15, 2012 8:47pm
Quoting iNSIELD
Hey BG God knows I'm with u on this pair going down in the medium to long term. I think now though is the time for longs possibly in the 1.01939 area (100SMA) or the bollinger band (1.02019) both on the hourly charts. I think the trend in the short term is up for a move to 1.032-1.034 area.
If that is the case, im just goint to load shorts all the way up top... we all know AUDUSD is in a bearish trend since 1.08, and we never broke above..... longer term trend always prevails...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,947
  • Edited 9:02pm Jul 15, 2012 8:49pm | Edited 9:02pm
Quoting DaddyBear
You may be right at this point. You are looking at the Earth from the Moon now. The Earth is definitely a "semiball' seen from most people's eyes from the Moon. Please look at my trend lines which I added to your chart for your reference.
I have this exact 4hr channel also but bearing in mind the strong weekly bearsh divergence and hidden bearish on the daily and 1hr, are you thinking we will break up thru the descending daily channel rather than down through the ascending 4hr?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #49,948
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:50pm Jul 15, 2012 8:50pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The chart attached to my post of 10:20 AM EST had the answer for you. DaddyBear owns a fishing gear store not a fish stand. Whoever gets the right fishing gear and learns how to use it will be able to get the fishes that he is looking for. Whoever just want fishes directly will be always asking for fishes.
That's pretty funny. What if.. We don't eat fishes.. we're totally SOL then I guess..
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #49,949
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:50pm Jul 15, 2012 8:50pm
Quoting bguguen
If that is the case, im just goint to load shorts all the way up top... we all know AUDUSD is in a bearish trend since 1.08, and we never broke above..... longer term trend always prevails...
Brother nothing wrong with that. You should be rewarded very handsomely wish I had the roll to do it LMAO MUST BE NICE!
  • #49,950
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:23pm Jul 15, 2012 9:23pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
I have this exact 4hr channel also but bearing in mind the strong weekly bearsh divergence and hidden bearish on the daily and 1hr, are you thinking we will break up thru the descending daily channel rather than down through the ascending 4hr?
Did I show daily DTL? Which trend line is more important to you?
daddybearforex. com
  • #49,951
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:35pm Jul 15, 2012 9:35pm
Quoting petehnm
yea unfortunately I realize little if anything is straight forward in Forex...speaking of riding this bull..if the 4hr candle decides to closes red I'm thinking of joining the bear rodeo....
I think what DB is referring to here is, Even though you are up riding the bull, at some point you just have to come down!
  • #49,952
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:39pm Jul 15, 2012 9:39pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Did I show daily DTL? Which trend line is more important to you?
I never said you showed a daily TL or channel, the channels on multi timeframes i posted earlier are my own analysis, I just said your 4hr is the same as mine.
But if your asking which is more important to me, I would say the daily as it is the higher TF.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #49,953
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:43pm Jul 15, 2012 9:43pm
Quoting palabara
That's pretty funny. What if.. We don't eat fishes.. we're totally SOL then I guess..
Before a carpenter works on a piece of wood, he checks if the wood is rotten. If so, he would throw it away. No rotten wood is allowed inside the Forex market because it cannot be used for anything.
daddybearforex. com
  • #49,954
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:46pm Jul 15, 2012 9:46pm
Quoting DaddyBear
No rotten wood is allowed inside the Forex market because it cannot be used for anything.
The why are you still here ?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #49,955
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:49pm Jul 15, 2012 9:49pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
I never said you showed a daily TL or channel, the channels on multi timeframes i posted earlier are my own analysis, I just said your 4hr is the same as mine.
But if your asking which is more important to me, I would say the daily as it is the higher TF.
Im glad to hear you say the Daily is more important... Now may i ask... could you plot a 200 EMA on the Daily Chart and see where we got rejected off exactly?? and what usually happed in the past couple weeks?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,956
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:49pm Jul 15, 2012 9:49pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
I never said you showed a daily TL or channel, the channels on multi timeframes i posted earlier are my own analysis, I just said your 4hr is the same as mine.
But if your asking which is more important to me, I would say the daily as it is the higher TF.
The chart attached to my post of 10:20 AM EST had the answer for you in case you overlooked.
daddybearforex. com
  • #49,957
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:50pm Jul 15, 2012 9:50pm
h4...either down to 1.0150 area, or bounced an up to test 1.03
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #49,958
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:50pm Jul 15, 2012 9:50pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Before a carpenter works on a piece of wood, he checks if the wood is rotten. If so, he would throw it away. No rotten wood is allowed inside the Forex market because it cannot be used for anything.
Oh man,
parables... carpentry...
Are you the one we were told to expect
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #49,959
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:53pm Jul 15, 2012 9:53pm
Quoting bguguen
Im glad to hear you say the Daily is more important... Now may i ask... could you plot a 200 EMA on the Daily Chart and see where we got rejected off exactly?? and what usually happed in the past couple weeks?
Can't do I'm afraid, I am in the field trading incognito, flying blind without technology (I'm doing some electrical work).
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #49,960
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:56pm Jul 15, 2012 9:56pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Can't do I'm afraid, I am in the field trading incognito, flying blind without technology (I'm doing some electrical work).
i hope its not because of the wife again....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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