I have seen many discussions related to fundamentals and technical analysis. These discussions are all valuable to certain degree. However, the question is that after China's so-so GDP, Aussie moved up. Furthermore, after a bad US confidence, Aussie rallied. Can any fundi men explain this to me? While some fundi men focus heavily on Aussie's economy, they did not discuss Aussie's biggest buyer's fundamentals in a similar depth. Talking about data alone would not touch the core issues of a big country like China. Furthermore, while Aussie...
1. i don't want to poison you
2. simply i don't want to share
3. you should do your own analysis for your own sake
so i only give a little from what i have:
1. not all news is correct. instead, lot of news is only explanation after price has a big move. so you should avoid this news. i give a screenshot at 29 june how bloomberg must edit their news because market is shifting (at 9:45 GMT+7 in my time). news too can be late like technical indicator. but news effect can last longer than technical indicator. so you still have chance.
2. what news you should watch is policy announcement, eg. Draghi lower deposit rate to zero, what is the effect? 800B deposit reduced to 300B is sign of effective. you should think where the 500B EUR go... where?
3. what personality people in charge have... eg. Ben is pro to easing, while JCT is less *but now Draghi is people in the charge. now you should feel Draghi yourself
4. China GDP, forecast is 7.7% at FF. but china policy maker already announce about 7.5% before GDP data shows. --- its all priced in, you are late if you trade on economic data.
5. about QE3, FMOC, market already know too. Monetary policy without fiscal policy is like one side love.
thats all price move in last week.
Okay now Australia, if you like more deeper:
china have more resource, off course, they have big land, but can they extract it?
australia growth is depend on coal & iron export.
who is australia threat here?
1. Indonesia, where i live (LOL)
2. Mongol (they are still newbie as coal producer, and they produce coking coal, not thermal coal)
Indonesia policy maker may be will find a way to extract more tax from big coal company here. so you can project indonesia coal export on coal may be will decrease in next several years. besides, they need coal to their next power plant. Indonesia energy source is laughing stock because they use oil as expensive source, and sell their coal & gas to other country as cheaper source. this is sign they (govt) have more brain now
Mongol production is still small, 1 company like ADARO Energy at Indonesia can produce as much as their country production. and CEO of ADARO say like this:
"All of our coal is sold. And all next 2 years production is also already sold, fully... who want to buy must line up in waiting list."
if... Indonesia really tightening their coal export, will China more depend on Australia?
next puzzle, China fill their coal warehouse at level 90%. they not use electricity like before. is it a bad news for aussie bulls?
disclaimer: not all i write is true or fact. so all reader must do their own analysis. i'm not guarantee anything.
