Euro/Dollar

work. which keeps me rather engaged. after i make my 1st million i will quit.

price target? dont know...honestly. because this is profit taking,...it can go low or high....dont know. i have attached a chart showing levels that i will watch for.

Skynet,

Talk turkey products now cheaper than china...is it true,how do you think about that?


Thanks

turkey is cheaper than china? that is news to me....do you have links to this?

i will like to read more...last i read...turkey economy is sort of... and this. It is one of the fastest gowing economy after china and argentina. according to bloomberg.

Last time I am have coffee with my friends,they just back from turkey and talk there have a lot cheap products and talk their labour cost lower than china also

So at the end of the day the S&P chart that warned of reversal did put in a nice reversal at a clear technical level and EURUSD followed it higher. Although the EURUSD chart certainly was far from screaming out a reversal was in the offing.... looking at the chart of one benchmark of risk appetite gave us some warning that a much needed, healthy relief rally was very possible.

I'll be looking to put on some new shorts early next week. The chart will spell out where exactly as it unfolds, but I think I need to get up to around 2290 before we turn around again before my system would trigger a new short entry. Higher would be even better..... farther grinding sideways will see my system stay on the sidelines... where I want to be in choppy conditions.

Have a good weekend everyone.

So much anticipated bounce happened on freaky friday. I briefly checked COT mainly on Euro/Dollar situation and this is how I see It,

Please focus on non commercial section as we retailers should pay attention to just this section (almost)

Short to long ratio would be 8:1 average, short positions has increased at 6:1 ratio (almost)
There is (almost) three times more sellers than buyers.
I am bearish for next week, I know that price doesn't go in the straight line and fridays bounce was just a part of natural market cycle.
I will be looking to sell those rallys and until I see 1,18 on my chart I don't see any chance for bulls - mid/long term.
COT didn't fail so far.

http://s10.postimage.org/44h898ja1/euro.jpg
hosting images

Great Thread mate.
It's bad for the other trade that has no control and members are fighting and some have no respect to others.
I'll just double post my post from other thread room.

Sell!? Buy!?
Harmonics and patterns, RSIs R&S... maybe it is a buy and I took it with three targets, 1st Risk/Rewards 1:1, 2nd previous HC, 3rd fib31.8, below 2363: 1st target is taken and now it's a risk free trade, well, it doesn't mean that I will wait for the Targets, I'll be looking closer for a resistance to open shorts again.
There is also a Headless Camel Pattern is seen in 3M TF, which I learnt this Friday.
EURUSD: Has several patterns
MN/Weekly : Bullish Cypher and Bullish Crab
1D/4H: Bullish Butterfly
1H: Bullish Shark
30M: Headless Camel Pattern
And above all, the lowest low; a retrace is inevitable

Gold: Has a bearish Shark Pattern and a bearish Cypher Pattern, short with 2 positions.
GJ: Long brom its buttom, 1st target is taken, and a risk free trade now as well: Bullish "A" Cypher pattern
AU: Was long with one target which was hit: Bullish Gartley
Missed: UC, has a great Bearish Shark Patern and boom, wasn't near the trade machine to take the chance
UJ : Bullish Bat pattern: 2 position for long.
So far all green pips

http://i47.tinypic.com/155lapt.png

OK,
Decided to go with the USDCHF (short) , 1H Chart has a bearish Shark, there is also a long formed bearish Butterfly pattern on 4H TF

http://i47.tinypic.com/1zqena0.png

For those who are struggling to get win trades, or turning win trades to losing ones, I recommend a book for psychology in trading.
"Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas
The are few others, but this one is very inspiring and encouraging.
Of course a trader must already have a trading strategy.
There is a guy, Jason Stampleton, who has started TripleTrading and he is giving a lot from him with many of his free stuff that he is sharing, live seminars and a weekly market preview, try him.

Good luck all.

Source: Signal Financial Group
The chart shows the tendencies of the Euro over the last 5, 10 and 15 years. From looking at the tendencies of Euro futures we can isolate times which are likely to be strong or weak for the EURUSD:
 The Euro typically forms a bottom in mid-February and then moves higher into mid-march. A pull back then occurs then we see another climb into the end of April.
 Another low in June which climbs into late July/early August.
 Usually a decline from early August to early September.
 Early to late September is a good time for the Euro, and then usually sees a
decline in early October.
 After October our averages diverge which means the signals are less concise and less reliable.Source: Signal Financial Group
The chart shows the tendencies of the Euro over the last 5, 10 and 15 years. From looking at the tendencies of Euro futures we can isolate times which are likely to be strong or weak for the EURUSD:
http://vantagepointtrading.com/about...ing-newsletter

i appreciate this...however, i am inclined to think that seasonal patterns will apply to commodities(for obvious reasons) and currency based on commodities-intensive economy might display statistically significant seasonal patterns. Ergo, currencies that are not commodities-intensive are therefore less likely to display meaningful patterns.....

that is my thought process on this.

thanks for the post though. It is just that i like my pattern to have some sort of meaning to me. or make sense in my own way. Not just patterns, patterns, patterns....

once again, respectfully.

--skynet

as quoted at
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...kel-draws-line

As Tomspin encouraged I am trying to read and digest fundamentals to support my trading decisions. If Greece goes the Euro is stronger?
In the past week I read that the salvation of the euro is devaluation
Greece exodus
Italy exodus
Price action interpretation seems easier to learn to manage... Have a great weekend everyone who is contributing to Tomspin's thread. Hope you all agree we have a good thing going .....

The new Greek finance minister, Yannis Stournaras, until recently a professor of economics at the University of Athens, hasn’t learned yet the art of extortion that is required to accomplish anything at all during negotiations with the Eurozone. And so, when he went to the meeting of Eurozone finance ministers earlier this week at the Eurogroup—which serves as political control over the common currency—he accomplished absolutely nothing. He wasn’t even able, unlike his predecessors, to get himself into the media with some wild threat about a “disorderly default” or destroying the entire Eurozone if he didn’t get what he wanted.

He had two big jobs to do: one, promote Greece’s efforts to renegotiate (“water down” is the technical term) the structural reforms that the prior government had agreed to in writing by signing the bailout memorandum; and two, push for a two-year delay of these watered-down conditions. At the same time, he’d have to make sure Greece would continue to receive the flow of bailout billions from taxpayers elsewhere.

But roundly ignored at the Eurogroup meeting, he returned empty handed to Greece. A fiasco for him. In a meeting with leaders of the three-party coalition government—the conservative New Democracy, the socialist PASOK, and the small Democratic Left— Evangelos Venizelos, PASOK leader, former finance minister, and extortionist par excellence, was apparently furious with him and hollowed out his power. The infighting begins.

Time is running out for Greece. Completely dependent on bailout payments to keep its finances from collapsing, Greece is losing ever more support where it counts the most: in Germany. According to the latest poll, 61% of Germans reject giving Greece and other bailed out countries more time to solve their problems. They’ve had enough of the broken promises. They’ve become so bitter about the whole process that, according to another poll, 58% of Germans want their Deutsche Mark back, up from 39% in 2010.

And what had to happen, finally happened: for the first time, an important component of German industry, the German Engineering Federation (VDMA) demanded that Greece leave the Eurozone “if it cannot, or does not want to, stick to its agreements.” German industry, which has benefitted from the euro and what amounted to a bailout of its customers in other countries, had been a staunch supporter of the euro, the bailouts, and keeping the Eurozone intact. But bailout funds, such as the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), should not be used to fund structural deficits, the organization said. And so it stepped up its support for Chancellor Angela Merkel and encouraged her to hold the line on Greece.

Merkel came out swinging. She would not tolerate that the bailout memorandum that contained the agreed-upon structural reforms would be watered down though she might be willing to delay implementation by “a few weeks”—not the two years the Greek government is seeking. Her spokesman Steffen Seibert was even firmer: “Neither the content nor the time frame of the memorandum is up for debate,” he said. Greece must “make great exertions.”

But that’s precisely what has not been happening. Inspectors of the “Troika”—the EU Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, the entities that have agreed to bail out Greece under certain “conditions”—were back in Athens earlier in July to review Greece’s books, check on progress of the agreed-upon structural reforms, and meet with government officials, all in order to determine if these certain “conditions” have been met. The inspectors already expected the worst, after a three-month hiatus while Greece was embroiled in political turmoil and two elections, an interregnum during which nothing was implemented.

Apparently, it was even worse. Elements of their preliminary and still unpublished report due by the end of July seeped out: it painted an “awful picture”; of the 300 specific measures to be implemented by now, 210 were completely ignored and left by the wayside. This is the report that the Troika will use in deciding whether or not to send the next bailout tranche to Greece. And without this money, Greece will have to default and most likely exit the Eurozone.

Germany itself is embroiled in disagreement over the endless bailouts, and their two crucial future mechanisms: the ESM bailout fund and the fiscal union pact. Cobbled together after hectic summits with dog and pony shows designed to soothe edgy markets, they’re now in the hands of the German Constitutional Court—and these are the options. Read.... Will the Euro Survive This Year?

Double-checking as euro miasma leaks into the rest of the world.... What Is Copper Telling Us about the Global Economy?

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EURUSD: long or short? starting 15th of july, 2012.

Interesting, mr. tomspin, i was of the same opinion as you...especially, since the fundamental case is very clear:short eur/usd...however, mr.dazzdude send me this analysis....it gives some potentially strong reasons for a near time bullish rally beyond last friday. He uses the COT index(he focuses on the commercial rather than the non-commercial that almost everybody does.); he uses the dollar index; he track the accumulation/distribution of the futures. Combining all these three, he made a case of a more bullish position beyond last friday's movement.

his thesis? the eur.usd rally was a rally based on the dollar weakness.

take a gander:


the dollar index chart: see the technical levels and formations? hhmm......
http://my.jetscreenshot.com/10537/20...g2cu-362kb.jpg
b

THE COT levels on the eur/usd......caveat:he uses the commercials...however, you can see the tracking of 50,000 contracts = turning points for dollar bulls in recent past...why not potentially now?. look at the chart below again.
http://my.jetscreenshot.com/10537/20...wpsr-332kb.jpg
c

THE ACCUMULATION/DISTRUBITION line is based on open interest...also part of the COT report. See the pattern?

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/10537/20...ubcv-306kb.jpg


ALL this combined with the fact that we are at 1.2200 a weekly support area...makes some strong point for the temporary bulls.

FUNDAMENTALLY, of course, the verdict is clear: short the living fucker out of the euro.

anyways, next week is right upon us...we will see how things developed...bullish eur/usd or short eur/usd?

hi skynet

how are u ? miss you ya
how did u begin start trading storied

i am fine. how are you?

how did i got into trading in the first place?

when an entire department where i was working got dismissed from their jobs. I was a chemist. That was when i decided that apart from getting a graduate level degree in engineering, i need to start looking for alternate streams of revenue. I then looked into trading. That was the beginning. I started with penny stocks...then regular stocks....then futures...then forex....i trade the last three now.

How about you? what is your trading story?

am fine sky

start trading reason was same with you,but am started with a powerful/profitable/limited EA at the first time ( as their promoted ) and then experience a huge floating loss,In the end I dont believe anykind of EA's In the world that can helping us creating a wealth,if there such an EA then there will be no more loser/poverty/poor in this world,I am believe trading required us to be work hard in "some Phase",and then am start trading by myself,am learn from the basic and what am found in the end,trading is about our mind & attitude ( correct mindset,Patient, Emotion,psychology ) In many Years,I seen some traders have a very good analyse market skills but was ended in margin call also,because their over confidence,lack of discipline,arrogant attitude,etc

thats why its very important for me to keep training these things in my mind

Its about Time..

Great analysis!

Yes she is exhausted and some kind of relief is needed at least from the technical point of view.
If your friend is using commercial part of COT he must be in FX for a long haul as commercial part of the market doesn't want to profit from market but rather protect its assests in mid/long term. If you look at the past COT data commercials were buying for whole June except 19,06,2012 where they reduced their position in a very drastic way.
I stated last week that 3 months FX Euro/Dollar positions were VERY balanced between both sides of the market.
I believe we are near bottom here, commercials selling tops and buying smelly bottoms & they were buying euro during June when we were praising bears and still do.
However non commercial are in for profits ergo we should follow them especially smaller swing players and intraday gang.

Example:
Go to your charts on 12,06,2012 and 19,06,2012 and notice what happend in a clearly bearish market after those reductions in the short sell positions by non commercials.

http://s7.postimage.org/rykxc7d3v/cot_june.jpg

You must all know I am not an expert on COT I'm just trying to have another tool which can guide me and I'm still learning how to read it.

I do have few levels I'll be watching however I am not buying her, I became a permabear so will be playng with swissy more if bulls will be dominant this week.

2420 is my 50 fibs but I'll give her 2360/80 lets see what she'll do

Great input Skynet

Edit

That bullish engulfing(piercing) pattern on daily is another reason to go long for a bit

http://s17.postimage.org/rhklrkn73/euro.gif
free picture hosting

Btw am long at friday with target 1.2507 till wednesday

I was reading old Cloogs's posts in the main thread, Hda as well for the last hour or so, I didn't understand them back then - golden pieces. Go back to may and see how HDA was persistent with his short sell no matter what others told him. Cloogs was a grumpy bastard but brought serious knowledge to this place. It is a real shame they are not here anymore, we could have learn so much more.

After opening if no gap above 1.22995 wait piercing of 1.2300
Entry 1.2300 1.2310 sl1.2360 target
1.2250 1/2 with moved sl to 1.2275 and target 2 1.22367
Piercing line was skewed from late day move..... Germans have rebuffed Greek request for more time
Monthly weekly trend down
Daily close clearly below 50 100 200 ema
15 minute bollinger bands show consolidation on the close
Stochastic
14 3 oscillator severely oversold so bounce is due but not willing to play the fake out.
So wil wait for entry 1/2 position trading
Demo accounts with 25:1 leverage
5000 account with 10000
1000 account with 5000
10000 account with 10000

http://seekingalpha.com/article/7207...cro_view&ifp=0

Euro: The net short position increased by 19.5k contracts to 165.7k in the week ending July 10. Bottom pickers add 4.2k contracts to the gross longs, which stood at 36.4k, making it the largest gross long position among the currency futures behind the Australian dollar and Mexican peso. The shorts added almost 24k contracts to 202.1k contracts.

The euro staged a key reversal before the weekend. It made a new two year low and then proceeded to rally and closed above the previous day's high. The last key reversal recorded in the euro took place after soft U.S. jobs data on June 1 and began a three week advance. Yet this seemingly bullish development has not been confirmed by the other major currencies. Moreover, in the foreign currency rally on Friday, the euro's relative performance put it in the middle of the G10 pack, gaining a modest 0.38%. Nor are the other technical studies generating bullish signals. To improve the technical tone, the euro needs to overcome resistance first in the $1.2260-90 band and then near $1.2330.

Good Night traders
Well the gap was a good one for me this time over the weekend, 2 targets reached just on top of my TPs for EU and EJ; it was my 2nd TG for EU and 1st for EJ.
The EU will probably close its gap before it climbs a bit more, it should reach previous daily low close at 2363 (2366 for fib38.2) and that's where my final for the rally.

http://i47.tinypic.com/domfdg.gif