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AUD/USD

  • #49,661
  • Jul 13, 2012 1:31am Jul 13, 2012 1:31am
What do you think?
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  • #49,662
  • Jul 13, 2012 1:31am Jul 13, 2012 1:31am
Quoting jplazard
The whole basis of the call was for this number now that it came out I see parity is not likely to happen this week
Yes you did mention that, I apologize I wasn't really trying to single you and your comment out, but referring to it as what the general sentiment here seems to be, but its starting to look bullish. Imo it has to come down right here(170ish) for another bearish move to unfold.
  • #49,663
  • Jul 13, 2012 1:38am Jul 13, 2012 1:38am
Quoting bguguen
Bro... he is wrong all along... the reason why GDP came out Bad and market still moved up is because it was ASIAN session.... banks were pushing it up so they could get sell orders filled which Conincidentally were at 1.0163, now that orders are filled, get ready for the drop today....
it all makes sense... Asia trying to push it up to get an order filled... then when london opens seeing Shitty GDP from China, Market Drops and whoever pushed it up during Asia to fill the sell orders make big money.... its all logic....

Could not agree more
  • #49,664
  • Jul 13, 2012 1:59am Jul 13, 2012 1:59am
Aldente,

I appreciate that and believe me I think it's necessary to call people out when they are wrong or incomplete on their analysis traders only get better when they review their mistakes and I am thankful if people give me the opposite point of view (calls me out) it allows me to say 'you know he does make a good point I will take this into consideration'

I forgot who said this but 'When the market fails to act in accordance with my analysis or the original reason I got into the trade I cut the position in half regardless if it starts moving my way hours or days later' I follow that always.
  • #49,665
  • Jul 13, 2012 2:00am Jul 13, 2012 2:00am
Hi guys,
Can we get back to AUD now!

It has just hit a minor trend line and it's decision time for the pair....
  • #49,666
  • Jul 13, 2012 2:10am Jul 13, 2012 2:10am
Quoting jplazard
'When the market fails to act in accordance with my analysis or the original reason I got into the trade I cut the position in half regardless if it starts moving my way hours or days later' I follow that always.
Sounds like something one of the guys from 'Market Wizards' would say, I think its damn good advice.
  • #49,667
  • Jul 13, 2012 2:13am Jul 13, 2012 2:13am
Just thinking London might take it down.
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  • #49,668
  • Jul 13, 2012 2:15am Jul 13, 2012 2:15am
Aldente,

Per the trade going forward I am still short -4contracts of -16 but Now that the AUD has not materalized like i anticipated per the GDP number I am focusing now on the Dollar. If you see the attached a simple chart with ABC levels the Dollar has a bigger ABC level drawing which played out on the 78.6% (6/12 sell off) and is starting to make a rounding top at the 127.2% fibo retrace which is bigger for reversals and retraces...

I am looking for risk on for Friday and will be getting long once we break down on the dollar more harder.

Trying to attach a chart
  • #49,669
  • Jul 13, 2012 2:23am Jul 13, 2012 2:23am
Here is the dollar so far it look overbought and the last two days it has been building at the 84 level. RSI is near extreme level so I would look more for risk on Friday on commodities and AUD/USD. If not and we blow through 84 we could see the NY low again

CHART ATTACHED
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  • #49,670
  • Jul 13, 2012 2:24am Jul 13, 2012 2:24am
Quoting bguguen
its not eroded until a candle confirmed close above it... besides its 1.0170/72.. its a confluence of H1 EMA55 and M15 EMA200 and i doubt asia has enough liquidity to bust through them...

PS just noted... 1.0175 is the 50% fib retracement from yesterday's High to yesterday's Low..., lots of confluence there and i doubt it'll break...
You heard me...

http://funny-pictures-blog.com/wp-co...-Please_12.jpg
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,671
  • Jul 13, 2012 2:39am Jul 13, 2012 2:39am
The Below attached was where I started getting short this pair or in my case AUD futures which if you look at that chart the levels were topping at 1.0260-1.0199 in which i started shorting late last week increasing until I was at a basis of -16 /6A 1.0216..

The set up was pretty straightforward pattern I trade frequently drew the fist Fibo Extension on 6/11 the second on 6/20 and the bottom of a retrace (6/25) which put 786% @ 1.0272 and 886% @ 1.0309 then I waited on the sidelines for the market to get to those levels for shorting. I will note that this does not work 100% of the time it will either overshoot too much or not trade at the futures fibo levels at all but when it does and you see weakness PILE IN!!...

I really on a smaller time frame don't see another major short setup for now at least but will look at the dollar like I mentioned a couple post ago for the signal to switch sides and ride risk into Friday's close
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  • #49,672
  • Jul 13, 2012 2:53am Jul 13, 2012 2:53am
AUD/USD 4h,looking as it will shoot up
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Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #49,673
  • Jul 13, 2012 2:57am Jul 13, 2012 2:57am
FUN FACT ON EUR/USD

EUR - Maybe worth noting that 1.2135 is the 50% Fib retracement of the lifetime EUR$ range from the .8232 2000 lows to the 1.6038 2008 high.
  • #49,674
  • Jul 13, 2012 3:01am Jul 13, 2012 3:01am
I'm long, but will be a lot happier once it breaks 1.0173
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #49,675
  • Jul 13, 2012 3:07am Jul 13, 2012 3:07am
Just finished reading the GDP report numbers in depth and certain parts of the report are worrying for months to come. Here is a chart a friend forwarded to me just now.

http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/201...1431133a18.htm

RE: Zero growth in electricity production is the most worrying number in the GDP print

We will see what the NY open has to offer but I won't get out of my remainder shorts until I see a clean break above 1.0190
  • #49,676
  • Jul 13, 2012 3:14am Jul 13, 2012 3:14am
Quoting bogus
I'm long, but will be a lot happier once it breaks 1.0173
will break soon if didn't dropped below 1.0145
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #49,677
  • Jul 13, 2012 3:35am Jul 13, 2012 3:35am
Quoting KiNgEdwarD
will break soon if didn't dropped below 1.0145
i bet you havent heard of double top?? please please turn up an M15 chart and plot on an EMA200 on it and you'll see that trend has always been a difficult thign to break without news or gaps...
so my best bet is this will hold audusd below until we get Italian Bond sales results and US PPI figures.....
otherwise we're gona stay below....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,678
  • Jul 13, 2012 3:54am Jul 13, 2012 3:54am
Quoting jplazard

We will see what the NY open has to offer but I won't get out of my remainder shorts until I see a clean break above 1.0190
I like your analysis. Both technically and fundamentally, your called short that you outlined yesterday was right on the money. I guess I'll think twice about trading against you again (although I am currently long again).

I think 1.0190 is a good dividing line, anything beyond 1.0200 I think is too big of a move to be considered a retracement.
  • #49,679
  • Jul 13, 2012 3:56am Jul 13, 2012 3:56am
Quoting diggo
I'm short from 1.0255. I'll be holding this for a while. Wake me when we get to 0.9388 This is the real make or break area for the aussie.
Added some shorts @ 1.0174, stops above 1.02

Will add more @ or near 1.02 if we get there
  • #49,680
  • Jul 13, 2012 3:57am Jul 13, 2012 3:57am
my next point to add short... 1.0200 that place be interesting....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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