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  • #241
  • Jul 12, 2012 5:47am Jul 12, 2012 5:47am
Quoting FXMindset
breaking the middle tl might change my outlook EU for 1.12 - 1.14
Do you think we could be heading for parity? Somehow I think that after US election FED may admit US sliding into next recession and they will print more. If Euro techno heads would come out with another can things could turn around and confidence in EZ could come back at least for some time
Just a sci-fi scenario at its best
swing it!
  • #242
  • Jul 12, 2012 5:58am Jul 12, 2012 5:58am
Quoting tomspin
Do you think we could be heading for parity? Somehow I think that after US election FED may admit US sliding into next recession and they will print more. If Euro techno heads would come out with another can things could turn around and confidence in EZ could come back at least for some time
Just a sci-fi scenario at its best
honestly I dont know bro,I am just stick and trade with the chart
btw when is US election ?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #243
  • Jul 12, 2012 6:03am Jul 12, 2012 6:03am
Quoting FXMindset
honestly I dont know bro,I am just stick and trade with the chart
btw when is US election ?
I do as well, november 6 - basically all data from US showing contraction across the board but they will not say it before election, I am not a fundie guy but this is how I see it. Esssex is a fundie guy in here.
swing it!
  • #244
  • Jul 12, 2012 6:12am Jul 12, 2012 6:12am
First Hourly Bar closes below the channel bottom on S&P Daily chart I posted earlier.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post5834872

Let's see if we get a daily close below here... or if this proves out to be false breakout...

A serious corrective move in equities may be getting underway... EURUSD of course trades in same direction as equities... heavily positively correlated at least.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: S&P Hourly.png Size: 11 KB
  • #245
  • Jul 12, 2012 6:20am Jul 12, 2012 6:20am
Quoting Crassius
First Hourly Bar closes below the channel bottom on S&P Daily chart I posted earlier.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post5834872

Let's see if we get a daily close below here... or if this proves out to be false breakout...

A serious corrective move in equities may be getting underway... EURUSD of course trades in same direction as equities... heavily positively correlated at least.
Agree If 1325 won't hold I'd be looking at 1300 and upper 29's
welcome Crassius
swing it!
  • #246
  • Jul 12, 2012 6:20am Jul 12, 2012 6:20am
Quoting tomspin
I do as well, november 6 - basically all data from US showing contraction across the board but they will not say it before election, I am not a fundie guy but this is how I see it. Esssex is a fundie guy in here.
always appreciate anyone who can share the good knowledge with good intention
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #247
  • Jul 12, 2012 6:34am Jul 12, 2012 6:34am
Quoting FXMindset
breaking the middle tl might change my outlook EU for 1.12 - 1.14

thanks for the V chap , went to pm you but looks like you don't like intrusions
  • #248
  • Jul 12, 2012 6:56am Jul 12, 2012 6:56am
Quoting MaxDoom
thanks for the V chap , went to pm you but looks like you don't like intrusions
u r welcome max,love your analysis
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #249
  • Jul 12, 2012 8:09am Jul 12, 2012 8:09am
thanks for the VOUCH, fxmindset...of course, i return the gesture. i gave you a vouch too.

regards
-skynet
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #250
  • Jul 12, 2012 9:08am Jul 12, 2012 9:08am
Quoting Skynet
thanks for the VOUCH, fxmindset...of course, i return the gesture. i gave you a vouch too.

regards
-skynet
Hello Skynet,

Was read your pro post...awesome!looking forward more of your knowledge bro
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #251
  • Jul 12, 2012 10:11am Jul 12, 2012 10:11am
Quoting 2046
Rather looking for long scalps at this level. 2255 is level of Kijun sen on H1, that should be a better opportunity to short.

Quoting tomspin
On BTV smart ass from UBS said euro could be at 1.20 in three months

2046 AND TOMSPIN.

I can see the potential for a long scalp...or a continued short. I think it all depends on how price handled that level(marked on the chart). annotations and commentaries written on chart.
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #252
  • Jul 12, 2012 11:04am Jul 12, 2012 11:04am
Quoting Skynet
2046 AND TOMSPIN.

I can see the potential for a long scalp...or a continued short. I think it all depends on how price handled that level(marked on the chart). annotations and commentaries written on chart.
Yes we are at point which should give her some kind of relief, I would watch any engulfing candles on D1 & H4 as weekly doesn't matter that much for me until monday. I can see her struggling with 2200 right now but nothing she can't overcome. We coud go east from here as well or be back to 2250.
Well to be honest guys I placed another cheeky short sell right at 2200.
I will enjoy this bonanza as far as I can BUT we should be aware of situation.
Daily close will be important.
swing it!
  • #253
  • Jul 12, 2012 3:59pm Jul 12, 2012 3:59pm
Quoting Skynet
2046 AND TOMSPIN.

I can see the potential for a long scalp...or a continued short. I think it all depends on how price handled that level(marked on the chart). annotations and commentaries written on chart.
My view from over 12 hours ago (around 2210) to scalp long was very short lived. for the day it would have turned out to be the wrong strategy, however I mentioned that I was looking to short at good level. Resistance was met at 2228 which was in line with the ichimoku kijun sen of M15, not the envisaged H1. This has become the level to enter short while the earlier projected resistance of 2255 was nowhere near.

a quick chart to demonstrate the above:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 120712_eu_m15_2200.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #254
  • Jul 12, 2012 4:18pm Jul 12, 2012 4:18pm
In comparison to the above this is the purely objective technical signal that Ichimoku provided, spanning around 40pips:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 120712_eu_m15_2200_2.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #255
  • Jul 12, 2012 5:59pm Jul 12, 2012 5:59pm
EUR/USD short term outlook: 12th to 13th of july, 2012: slightly bullish.

Quoting 2046
My view from over 12 hours ago (around 2210) to scalp long was very short lived. for the day it would have turned out to be the wrong strategy, however I mentioned that I was looking to short at good level. Resistance was met at 2228 which was in line with the ichimoku kijun sen of M15, not the envisaged H1. This has become the level to enter short while the earlier projected resistance of 2255 was nowhere near.

a quick chart to demonstrate the above:
Attachment
fascinating...i am uncomfortable shorting in front of 1.2200....and tomorrow is friday--i wont be surprised at some profit taking given the bearish rally all week long....overall, fundamental outlook is bearish....however, between today and tomorrow's close...given that (a)we are at a major weekly support (b)tomorrow is friday after a nice week-long bearish rally. Given (a) and (b)....i am bullish inclined from 1.2200...at least for the rest of the week.

P.S. the name "2046" is the name of tony leung movie, correct? i like him in "internal affairs" , "hard boiled", "chungking express"and "hero"


Quoting tomspin
Yes we are at point which should give her some kind of relief, I would watch any engulfing candles on D1 & H4 as weekly doesn't matter that much for me until monday. I can see her struggling with 2200 right now but nothing she can't overcome. We coud go east from here as well or be back to 2250.
Well to be honest guys I placed another cheeky short sell right at 2200.
I will enjoy this bonanza as far as I can BUT we should be aware of situation.
Daily close will be important.

1.2200 is making me wary....here is a nice bullish triangle forming into it....fundamentally, yes, short EUR/USD...however, i will prefer a solid close below 1.2200, and a retest, then a bearish continuation....before entering short.

short term outlook: i will say bullish. (a)we are at 1.2200. (b)week-long rally, friday = profit taking. i am bullish inclined.

anyways, chart attached.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-12_18-46_OANDA.jpg Size: 54 KB
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #256
  • Jul 12, 2012 6:50pm Jul 12, 2012 6:50pm
Quoting Skynet
EUR/USD short term outlook: 12th to 13th of july, 2012: slightly bullish.



fascinating...i am uncomfortable shorting in front of 1.2200....and tomorrow is friday--i wont be surprised at some profit taking given the bearish rally all week long....overall, fundamental outlook is bearish....however, between today and tomorrow's close...given that (a)we are at a major weekly support (b)tomorrow is friday after a nice week-long bearish rally. Given (a) and (b)....i am bullish inclined from 1.2200...at least for the rest of the week....



HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. broke down?....hmmm...well..it is still asian session...let see how is goes at the end of the day...

i am still bullish inclined....i think the bearish rally needs a breather.

OF COURSE, if price gets below 1.2150 then i am completely WRONG.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-12_19-48_OANDA.jpg Size: 55 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #257
  • Jul 12, 2012 7:15pm Jul 12, 2012 7:15pm
Quoting Skynet
1.2200 is making me wary....here is a nice bullish triangle forming into it....fundamentally, yes, short EUR/USD...however, i will prefer a solid close below 1.2200, and a retest, then a bearish continuation....before entering short.

short term outlook: i will say bullish. (a)we are at 1.2200. (b)week-long rally, friday = profit taking. i am bullish inclined.

anyways, chart attached.
Yes, I agree as I stated before I wish to see some kind of relief for her as nothing is coming down in the straight line. You must know that I am building a larger position as I do swing, I am looking at the bigger picture and my ultimate goal is 1.18 + my MM allow me to do it at present level without serious consequences in case of the pullback. I just came back home and I see 2200 is still intact as I left.
I will cover half if need it tommorow and will leave top entries over the weekend.
swing it!
  • #258
  • Jul 12, 2012 7:19pm Jul 12, 2012 7:19pm
Quoting Skynet
EUR/USD short term outlook: 12th to 13th of july, 2012: slightly bullish.



fascinating...i am uncomfortable shorting in front of 1.2200....and tomorrow is friday--i wont be surprised at some profit taking given the bearish rally all week long....overall, fundamental outlook is bearish....however, between today and tomorrow's close...given that (a)we are at a major weekly support (b)tomorrow is friday after a nice week-long bearish rally. Given (a) and (b)....i am bullish inclined from 1.2200...at least for the rest of the week....
Yesterday was yesterday, today is another day. Fridays are always good for surprises and I am not biased and never predict, but instead follow the charts. Some timeframes may be short while others are long and both may produce satisfying results.

I agree on your discomfort, and the chart was in line with that - It marked the end of bearish signal on M15 with the weak bullish tenkan kijun cross:

Weak because price is below kumo and I did not call long because of the time of day when market tends to flat line.
What happened in the last hour was the likely scenario: a rejection of PA at 2286 which is a level of confluence of upper kumo line on m15, lower kumo line on M30 and Kijun sen on H1 - and the time of tokyo open. (Japanese appreciate Ichimoku)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 120713_eu_m15_1000_2.gif Size: 28 KB





H1 could see a weak bullish TKcross any time now and 2200 might be the deciding level. I will not hesitate to enter long once the signal is confirmed.

H4 is also not far away to invalidate the short signal, but we could as well see a bearish continuation instead.



I furter understand your discomfort because on Higer TFs (4h+) the time to enter short has passed. however they remain bearish and I keep an eye on the downwad channel as seen in this daily and monthly chart #8053

Again, as long as each entry is dedicated to one timeframe and the position size /Moneymanagement/Riskmanagement follows accordingly I find it valid to trade both directions.
  • #259
  • Jul 13, 2012 12:38am Jul 13, 2012 12:38am
This thread is maturing really well.

As a fundie boy, I am still cutting any mid to long term exposure to the EUR/USD pair and I still highly recommend people hopping on board the sell EUR against any risk currency trade.

Fundie trade of the day, added more shorts to EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD after forecast Chinese numbers to take full advantage of the weak EUR and money flow by investors to seek higher I/R returns.

After bad AUD numbers yesterday that caused a much needed AUD selloff by the markets, I was waiting for the Chinese numbers to give direction on whether we would have even more selloff or resume the AUD strength.

Specifically still playing carry trades as I am pretty sure the fundamental guys with a lot of money are doing the same thing. Doesn't help that charts show a downtrend on those 2 particular pairs.
  • #260
  • Jul 13, 2012 1:13am Jul 13, 2012 1:13am
Quoting Esssex
This thread is maturing really well.

As a fundie boy, I am still cutting any mid to long term exposure to the EUR/USD pair and I still highly recommend people hopping on board the sell EUR against any risk currency trade.

Fundie trade of the day, added more shorts to EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD after forecast Chinese numbers to take full advantage of the weak EUR and money flow by investors to seek higher I/R returns.

After bad AUD numbers yesterday that caused a much needed AUD selloff by the markets, I was waiting for the Chinese numbers to...
My fundies are weak, I trade technicals almost exclusively with the exception of big news events like NFP and the like. I'm trying to expand my horizons! Could you explain to me how/why Chinese fundamentals affect foreign currency pairs and their correlations?
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