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AUD/USD

  • #49,401
  • Jul 12, 2012 12:47pm Jul 12, 2012 12:47pm
Quoting DaddyBear
FXMindset, thanks. Your user name reminds me two of my approaches of my FX trading: Complicated EW Principle and a child's simple mindset. The later is based on Zen. I studied Japanese before and know Japanese culture very well. It is my pleasure to "meet" you in this forum. -DB-
He's not Japanese Papa, I believe he shares the same nationality as me, but at least his signature is Japanese..
  • #49,402
  • Jul 12, 2012 12:47pm Jul 12, 2012 12:47pm
Quoting DaddyBear
FXMindset, thanks. Your user name reminds me two of my approaches of my FX trading: Complicated EW Principle and a child's simple mindset. The later is based on Zen. I studied Japanese before and know Japanese culture very well. It is my pleasure to "meet" you in this forum. -DB-
I love your baloon theory
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #49,403
  • Jul 12, 2012 12:50pm Jul 12, 2012 12:50pm
Quoting bguguen
First of all... QE3 is still a big IF... when the FOMC announced no plan for QE3 anytime soon this week....
yes, there is no QE3 in this few month.
many analyst predict Sept or maybe nearing end of year & end of Operation Twist.

Quote
Next off.... AUDUSD is not quite a risk pair... Risk pairs are the EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCHF lately.....

we put different view then.
my view is
JPY, USD, CHF, GBP --- are the safest
EUR --- are safe but in trouble
AUD, NZD, CAD are risky.

* CHF is safe even after peg.
* GBP is safe enough too.

Quote
AUDUSD is a semi safe haven pair because..... when EURUSD Falls... AUDUSD goes up as of late due to rising Gold prices.....

Australia is AAA country, better than US... maybe this thinking make Australia got safe status now. i think its true too...

i'm very bullish for AUD for yearly period. imho, Australia economic is highly dependent on coal export (just like my country ), not gold. and coal market is still good for maybe next 5 years. even w/o QE, i'm still bullish in coal producer.

Quote
when risk aversion happens EURUSD fell translates Dollar Strength then Dollar Strength translates to XAUUSD strengh when gold gets bought up. when gold gets bought up AUD strengthens.... So really.... AUD is not quite the risk pair you think it is my friend....

we think differently

gold is risky asset too. without inflation (weaker USD, gold is down)
when risk aversion happens, USD will strength === yes, JPY is also...
why? because trader/investor/speculator will stop their activity and pay back their lender. JPY is first generation lender. USD is later generation. XAU (gold) will down too in risk aversion time.
  • #49,404
  • Jul 12, 2012 12:52pm Jul 12, 2012 12:52pm
Quoting irfandbl
He's not Japanese Papa, I believe he shares the same nationality as me, but at least his signature is Japanese..
O.K. Do you know him? Did you get your map for tonight's China party?
daddybearforex. com
  • #49,405
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:00pm Jul 12, 2012 1:00pm
Quoting redbox
yes, there is no QE3 in this few month.
many analyst predict Sept or maybe nearing end of year & end of Operation Twist.



we put different view then.
my view is
JPY, USD, CHF, GBP --- are the safest
EUR --- are safe but in trouble
AUD, NZD, CAD are risky.

* CHF is safe even after peg.
* GBP is safe enough too.



Australia is AAA country, better than US... maybe this thinking make Australia got safe status now. i think its true too...

i'm very bullish for AUD for yearly period. imho, Australia economic is highly dependent on coal export...
Ill leave you to your ideas.... lol AUD and NZD being risk LOL... and banks nowadays are basing their Bank Deposit investment producs in Australian DOllar LOL....
Good luck on that....
the GBP being safe?? total fucking bollocks..... GBP is no where safe...
didnt you know that more than 50% UK's External trades are between EUROPE?? if EURO dies, Britain is going to follow most of the way....
However when Euro is announced Dead, Britain will survive but badly wouded...
good luck with your analysis.... i know all to weel about GBP not being safe since im a Finance Major in UK....
funny how people actually think the GBP is actually safe.... good god...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,406
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:01pm Jul 12, 2012 1:01pm
Looks like the B wave is near completion I was looking for it to top out at .45 level and /dx come down to at least 83.70 But if you guys want to capture the Parity move I wouldn't be so picky about a 10pip topping level get in and hold of because this short bus is headed for some sight seeing in China...
  • #49,407
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:07pm Jul 12, 2012 1:07pm
Quoting DaddyBear
O.K. Do you know him? Did you get your map for tonight's China party?
Actually I don't know him, but I've seen somewhere in FF that he writes Indonesian, hence I assume he's one of us.

I've had my map, but I hadn't flush the toilet. Now I'm confused whether to follow the map or to stare at the thing that needed to be flushed. But one thing for sure, the Chinese sure knows how to party well..
  • #49,408
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:13pm Jul 12, 2012 1:13pm
Quoting irfandbl
this thing is going north if QE3 is on

why would obama jeporize his election by throwing qe3 lmaooo only a idiot would think there is qe3 before election
  • #49,409
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:14pm Jul 12, 2012 1:14pm
Quoting irfandbl
Actually I don't know him, but I've seen somewhere in FF that he writes Indonesian, hence I assume he's one of us.

I've had my map, but I hadn't flush the toilet. Now I'm confused whether to follow the map or to stare at the thing that needed to be flushed. But one thing for sure, the Chinese sure knows how to party well..
What I tried to deliver in the cartoon of map and toilet was that once you have a correct "Forex Map", you don't have much fear anymore. Last night before Aussie news, I posted some cartoons which were all showing the bear having upper hand. I kept my short positions through the news release because my map indicated Aussie would be down and Aussie did drop quite a bit.
daddybearforex. com
  • #49,410
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:16pm Jul 12, 2012 1:16pm
Quoting acacia357
why would obama jeporize his election by throwing qe3 lmaooo only a idiot would think there is qe3 before election
qe3 could be the only thing to save him. If the fed did qe3 and it provided a short term boost people could get to thinking things are recovering.
  • #49,411
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:18pm Jul 12, 2012 1:18pm
Quoting PipSwing
qe3 could be the only thing to save him. If the fed did qe3 and it provided a short term boost people could get to thinking things are recovering.

QE has not translated into the real economy at ANY kind of decent level of a multipler, the idea of like......4 dollars of government speinding =12 to real GDP is insane, all it does is just inflate asset prices. It doesn't help people get jobs, raises, more income even, and especially not REAL income. All it does is help the banks have a slightly healthier balance sheet and take on more risk. Pretty pointless to most voters.
  • #49,412
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:20pm Jul 12, 2012 1:20pm
Quoting bguguen
Ill leave you to your ideas.... lol AUD and NZD being risk LOL... and banks nowadays are basing their Bank Deposit investment producs in Australian DOllar LOL....
Good luck on that....
the GBP being safe?? total fucking bollocks..... GBP is no where safe...
didnt you know that more than 50% UK's External trades are between EUROPE?? if EURO dies, Britain is going to follow most of the way....
However when Euro is announced Dead, Britain will survive but badly wouded...
good luck with your analysis.... i know all to weel about GBP not being safe...
LOL...

now you are shorting AUD, and i'm in long position anyway.
about risk and safe definition can be very different between us.

i think you see risk and safe base on current exchange rate (but you are in short position??? then you are contradicting in your self).

UK economy does not depend heavily on export, Australia does.

your country even in bad shape can sell bonds at same yield compare to Australia now in good shape. LOL... maybe you are not happy with your country finance?
  • #49,413
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:23pm Jul 12, 2012 1:23pm
Quoting PipSwing
qe3 could be the only thing to save him. If the fed did qe3 and it provided a short term boost people could get to thinking things are recovering.

lmaooooooooooo how would qe3 will save him????????
  • #49,414
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:27pm Jul 12, 2012 1:27pm
With the Interest coming through at this level on the Dollar and the strong interest on ES I revise the topping of the B wave of AUD/USD at 1.0150-60 level (127.2%)

For those still short at 1.02 The bus is making the rounds dropping people off at their houses as the end of the school day comes in. We will be around to pick you guys up for the after school activities of sight seeing and a possible ballon crash landing heading for the Great wall of China...Reports are still coming in but their seems to be an air ballon out of control and the authorities are working with the pilot as we speak...
  • #49,415
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:27pm Jul 12, 2012 1:27pm
Quoting lolygagv2
QE has not translated into the real economy at ANY kind of decent level of a multipler, the idea of like......4 dollars of government speinding =12 to real GDP is insane, all it does is just inflate asset prices. It doesn't help people get jobs, raises, more income even, and especially not REAL income. All it does is help the banks have a slightly healthier balance sheet and take on more risk. Pretty pointless to most voters.
inflating price can help reducing unemployment.
Philips Curve explain this.
  • #49,416
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:28pm Jul 12, 2012 1:28pm
Quoting acacia357
lmaooooooooooo how would qe3 will save him????????
do you usually log in to FF just to laugh at people? I have never seen your chart or sound analysis, ever.
swing it!
  • #49,417
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:33pm Jul 12, 2012 1:33pm
Quoting redbox
LOL...

now you are shorting AUD, and i'm in long position anyway.
about risk and safe definition can be very different between us.

i think you see risk and safe base on current exchange rate (but you are in short position??? then you are contradicting in your self).

UK economy does not depend heavily on export, Australia does.

your country even in bad shape can sell bonds at same yield compare to Australia now in good shape. LOL... maybe you are not happy with your country finance?
Buddy... IM shorting AUD because like you said Australia relies on Exports, right now China is showing initiative to divert their economy from an import and export driven economy to a Domestic consumption economy....
Australia is only as useful as long as China demands the Australian Gold and Gas Production....
When China itself is suffering in a slow growth so does Australia...
i never quite said Australia is a safe haven economy, i said Australia is a SEMI-SAFE haven due to the backing of gold!
However Australia's economy is dependent on China.

As for UK, UK is driven solely strong by the reason of its Banking, however its already got rivals agains the Swiss....
so service sector they're losing out...
in production sector, the UK depends highly on trades with the EU and with EU diminishes its trade capacity, So will UK.... its logic...

Come to think of it.... Germany and France have higher GDP growth than UK now.... France at 0%, and Germany is also in positive... i wonder where the Brits are at.... oh right... -0.3%... what a joke...

BTW reason why i chose to study Finance in UK is because i know its going to be Cheap... you see im originally from Hong Kong and since Hong Kong is pegged with the USD... all i can see is GBP weakening against the USD so, education in UK is getting cheaper and cheaper in the eyes of the Americans and Us Hongers....

BTW CHF is a safehaven but they've worked their ass to intervene in easing CHF strength, and so is the JPY....
All safe-havens are not so safe, uncertainty on these safe-haven pairs driven by manipulation and intervening Central Banks like SNB and BOJ, with big enough Asset at hand to dump into the economy just to discourage people from putting too much strain on their currency...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,418
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:38pm Jul 12, 2012 1:38pm
Quote
Originally Posted by acacia357 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
lmaooooooooooo how would qe3 will save him????????



People care about their wealth more than anything else. The avg. American voter is not too bright. A nice rally in stocks up to the election would make some sheep feel warm and fuzzy inside going to the polls.

I feel it would it would definitely help him more than it would "jeporize" him, whatever the heck "jeporize" means...maybe you were looking for jeopardize but who knows.
  • #49,419
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:39pm Jul 12, 2012 1:39pm
Quoting redbox
inflating price can help reducing unemployment.
Philips Curve explain this.
Inflating price can help reduce unemployment?? da fuq??

Philips curve explains that by inflating price, it reduces unemployment for a short period of time but unemployment will revert back to original level, however price level will be above original...
that is where you get inflation... and that is BAD...

If Inflation rate rises faster than the Rate of Increase in Incomes, say for example... if INflation is 4% while income only rises by 3%... People are actually 1% worse off....

So Inflation is not necessarily a good thing.... Especially not a good thing if the Inflation was caused by manipulation.... an artifically induced inflation can be deadly if not managed properly where Income rises faster than the Inflation....
it spells disaster if you push inflation up faster than income rises, people are worse off and your economy suffers diminishing demand...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,420
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:40pm Jul 12, 2012 1:40pm
Quoting PipSwing
People care about their wealth more than anything else. The avg. American voter is not too bright. A nice rally in stocks up to the election would make some sheep feel warm and fuzzy inside going to the polls.

I feel it would it would definitely help him more than it would "jeporize" him, whatever the heck "jeporize" means...maybe you were looking for jeopardize but who knows.
Maybe he meant vaporize, it was a typo..who knows..
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