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Extreme TMA System

  • #11,841
  • Jul 10, 2012 8:37am Jul 10, 2012 8:37am
Took this EURJPY trade this morning. Waiting for a trix color change to exit.
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  • #11,842
  • Jul 10, 2012 10:31am Jul 10, 2012 10:31am
hi have been away from this thread studying.
let me ask rule 1 states

1- We will first determine trend in the TMA by using the TMA Slope indicator value of the TF you are trading. Ranging TMA (-0.25 to 0.25): Trades can be placed in both directions. Buy Only TMA (Above 0.25): Place ONLY Long trades. Sell Only TMA (Below -0.25): Place ONLY Short trades.

but i notice the tma slope indicator changes to grey at (-0.5/+0.5) not (-0.25 or 0.25) if color grey suggest range. wouldn't (-0.25 to 0.25)=grey.
  • #11,843
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:00pm Jul 10, 2012 12:00pm
Quoting bassramy
Congrats TP, personnaly i don't like to be greedy usually i have daily and weekly stop loss but i like to let my profit run of course with limiting my risk as much as possible.
TNX.


Greed is a bad habit to have in fx.
Overall, I need to improve my TPs more. I used to be min15 trader, but I switched to h1. Still, confluence between h1 and h4 seems to be THE point to consider.

Quoting bassramy
For those of you who ask, I'm still short AU, GLD and SLV.
This is exactly what I'm talking about. I entered gold short, but took my profits WAY to soon. Only now real TP was hit.

I don't trade silver, but AUDUSD still did not reach TP on h4.

All I can say is - good job!



And - I'm tempted to go long on EURUSD. Except for confluence on other pairs (which is not obligatory), technicals based on my system are almost there. TMA is also not far away.

The point here is, altough a lot of "experts" is screaming parity with USD or lower... technicals throughout the board is screaming: LONG. At this very moment everything from min1 to weekly! As crazy as it may sound: EURUSD technical outlook for me is anything from 1,27 to as high as ... well, at this point let me just say - even much higher. Crazy???


BR
  • #11,844
  • Jul 10, 2012 1:32pm Jul 10, 2012 1:32pm
Quoting chosen.bless
hi have been away from this thread studying.
let me ask rule 1 states

1- We will first determine trend in the TMA by using the TMA Slope indicator value of the TF you are trading. Ranging TMA (-0.25 to 0.25): Trades can be placed in both directions. Buy Only TMA (Above 0.25): Place ONLY Long trades. Sell Only TMA (Below -0.25): Place ONLY Short trades.

but i notice the tma slope indicator changes to grey at (-0.5/+0.5) not (-0.25 or 0.25) if color grey suggest range. wouldn't ([b]-0.25...
I have backtested the system using a non-repainting TMA slope indicator & it looks like .4 or .5 will give more opportunities on the m15 charts. However, I only take trades when the indicators such as the 89 EMA & the non lag ma line up as in the chart I posted. These two indicators must be above price or in the upper half of the TMA band for a short. Opposite for a long. So another words I only trade in the direction of the 4h trend. Almost all of these trades make it to the opposite band & then some.

As for the .25 & -.25 rule, it looks to matter more in the longer time frames, although I haven't tested it much.
  • #11,845
  • Jul 11, 2012 12:28am Jul 11, 2012 12:28am
Quoting chosen.bless
hi have been away from this thread studying.
let me ask rule 1 states

1- We will first determine trend in the TMA by using the TMA Slope indicator value of the TF you are trading. Ranging TMA (-0.25 to 0.25): Trades can be placed in both directions. Buy Only TMA (Above 0.25): Place ONLY Long trades. Sell Only TMA (Below -0.25): Place ONLY Short trades.

but i notice the tma slope indicator changes to grey at (-0.5/+0.5) not (-0.25 or 0.25) if color grey suggest range. wouldn't...
Go to the indicator's input tab, change it to 0.25 and -0.25, go to levels tab and do the same and voila all is good, you are welcome in advance and glad to have you back.
Don't forget to save template to make the changes permanent.
Best Regards.
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,846
  • Edited 1:17am Jul 11, 2012 1:00am | Edited 1:17am
Quoting tp0440
TNX.


Greed is a bad habit to have in fx.
Overall, I need to improve my TPs more. I used to be min15 trader, but I switched to h1. Still, confluence between h1 and h4 seems to be THE point to consider.



This is exactly what I'm talking about. I entered gold short, but took my profits WAY to soon. Only now real TP was hit.

I don't trade silver, but AUDUSD still did not reach TP on h4.

All I can say is - good job!



And - I'm tempted to go long on EURUSD. Except for confluence on other pairs (which is not obligatory),...
-I'm scaling in AU shorts every time I've got the chance, my medium term outlook for the Aussie is bearish.

-Took profit in GLD and came close with 7 pips for SLVR but make no mistake it will hit it sooner or later pending bad news from somewhere.

-I Took the much discussed long on the GU and everything is going great like i predicted ( i don't like to predict or speculate but bear with me for a moment here) the PA Retraced to the lower band of the H1 TMA and then back up, i scaled in with an additional mini lot @ the touch of the lower band.

-I won't touch the EU @ the moment until he shows me some good sign of reversal both fundamentals and technical so far the Trend is very bearish considering that all of Europe is in recession.

Best Regards and good luck in your trading.

Go here :http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=373136
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,847
  • Jul 11, 2012 2:06am Jul 11, 2012 2:06am
Quoting bassramy
-I'm scaling in AU shorts every time I've got the chance, my medium term outlook for the Aussie is bearish.

-Took profit in GLD and came close with 7 pips for SLVR but make no mistake it will hit it sooner or later pending bad news from somewhere.

-I Took the much discussed long on the GU and everything is going great like i predicted ( i don't like to predict or speculate but bear with me for a moment here) the PA Retraced to the lower band of the H1 TMA and then back up, i scaled in with an additional mini lot @ the touch of the lower band.

-I...
- AUDUSD: as you should. Actually, AUDUSD is making me second guess EURUSD pernanent long for now.
- I don't find GBP any safer than EUR. If anything, EUR is easier to trade as GBP is more volatile. If you are looking for good trender, AUDUSD and NZDUSD are way better. They trend strong, but durring reversals they are jumping all arround.
- With regards to news: for a while now, news are widely used to manipulate markets. After I diminished their importance in my trading, my results are way better. I'm not saying to ingnore them, just... I trust my charts, but still not enough.
- And speaking of that, I just closed EURUSD long. Quick trade for a few hours, brought me 56 pips, but due to the trade aginast the major trend, I only entered 2.5 minilots. Normally I take 1 full lot, goal is to get to 5 in time.

BR
  • #11,848
  • Jul 11, 2012 3:36am Jul 11, 2012 3:36am
Quoting bassramy
For those of you who ask, I'm still short AU, GLD and SLV.
Hello Bassramy, with all the instruments we can trade, approaching Gold with its stupid volatility and costly spread it is not very convenient. It is simply an over-manipulated commodity, the volatility just says it all.
I never made a dime and for sure I lost many with it, unless I'm going 1:1 as a long term investment, but then I prefer to buy real gold, it makes more sense.

So I understand that trading gold it ticks our imagination and emotions but it is really not for the retail trader.
Don't you agree?
Thanks for keeping this thread alive
Best
Max
  • #11,849
  • Jul 11, 2012 4:09am Jul 11, 2012 4:09am
Quoting bassramy
Go to the indicator's input tab, change it to 0.25 and -0.25, go to levels tab and do the same and voila all is good, you are welcome in advance and glad to have you back.
Don't forget to save template to make the changes permanent.
Best Regards.
B.R.
hi bassramy thanks for responding but how do i navigate in mt4 to make changes. i have an idea to do it but just want to make sure
  • #11,850
  • Jul 11, 2012 4:12am Jul 11, 2012 4:12am
Quoting dorellino
Hello Bassramy, with all the instruments we can trade, approaching Gold with its stupid volatility and costly spread it is not very convenient. It is simply an over-manipulated commodity, the volatility just says it all.
I never made a dime and for sure I lost many with it, unless I'm going 1:1 as a long term investment, but then I prefer to buy real gold, it makes more sense.

So I understand that trading gold it ticks our imagination and emotions but it is really not for the retail trader.
Don't you agree?
Thanks for keeping this thread alive
Best
Max...
As a matter of fact i had good results Trading GLD but its SLVR that concerns me no matter how much you keep lowering your position size you keep paying a big spread and the smallest drawdown will eat up a lot of your Free and % level margin account, the tick or pip value is too big so in that way yes its not for retail traders.

Welcome back and hope you will stay for good.
"it is better too much than not enough".

Best Regards.
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,851
  • Jul 11, 2012 4:14am Jul 11, 2012 4:14am
Quoting chosen.bless
hi bassramy thanks for responding but how do i navigate in mt4 to make changes. i have an idea to do it but just want to make sure
Just right click on your chart and then indicators.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,852
  • Jul 11, 2012 7:43pm Jul 11, 2012 7:43pm
Quoting bassramy
Just right click on your chart and then indicators.
hi again bassramy thanks i got to adjust the indi. a point to mention, sometimes the ea would send a trade but the first rule is not in place. tma for the specific tf would be way above or below (0.25/-0.25). in such a case were would the bias be the eas or tma slope ind (rule 1)
  • #11,853
  • Jul 12, 2012 12:33am Jul 12, 2012 12:33am
@bassramy

I mainly use h4 for guideline, but trade on h1 and... well, AUDUSD h4 not reaching it's target persuaded me to enter short 10h ago. Your determination again helped. What can I say? I'm not as patient asyou are. 1,10150 will do just fine.... well, was hit as I'm writing this (85 pips). Again - great analysis and determination to carry the trade through on h4 despite crazy jumping all arround. But within h4 strategy.

Anyway, waiting on alignment for long now on EUR. As Australia had bad data, it might prolong the wait, but technicals are now almost aligned. No inter-dependant pairs holding US$ down anymore, so I'm waiting for the trigger.

BR
  • #11,854
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:07am Jul 12, 2012 1:07am
Tess and tp hang on guys we are almost there after 7-8 years of trading you will not be scared easily also, fear and greed, with time and experience you will get rid of these 2 bad habits but take your time trading is not a sprint its a marathon.
Here is a chart to make you calmer ,TRUST THE SYSTEM AND IT WILL TRUST YOU IN RETURN AND GAVE YOU MULTIPLE REWARDS.
Just look were i scaled in on the chart.

B.R.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,855
  • Edited 1:34am Jul 12, 2012 1:20am | Edited 1:34am
Important to read
http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...es20120620.htm

Dissecting the FOMC Minutes :

On the FOMC minutes from Tim Duy: FOMC Minutes Not a Smoking Gun

The minutes of the June FOMC meeting are out, and they did not deliver the much-anticipated smoking gun that would indicate QE3 was on its way. In fact, I think the minutes raise questions about another round of QE3 at all. The minutes hold many hints that policymakers are struggling to find a new direction for policy, one not necessarily dependent on balance sheet expansion.
...
Bottom Line: The minutes leaves me with the sense that it isn't so much the outlook that is holding back the Fed from further stimulus, but a lack of faith in the beneficial effects of further quantitative easing. That lack of faith may be why the bar to QE3 seems so high. So high that Fed officials are searching for other tools as the next step. Until I see more specific suggestions of other tools, I would continue to expect QE as the tool of choice. Given concerns about the functioning of the Treasuries market, MBS would seem a suitable alternative. But a building desire to explore new tools could mean a delay in any additional action. Hopefully Fed officials will give us more guidance on specific alternatives in the weeks ahead.

And from Binyamin Appelbaum at the NY Times: Fed Is Torn on Tipping Point for Action

Paul Ashworth, chief United States economist at Capital Economics, was among the analysts who chose a position in the middle, writing to clients that “officials are edging closer to launching a third round of large-scale asset purchases, but it won’t become a reality unless the recovery loses even more momentum.”

Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,856
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:32am Jul 12, 2012 1:32am
Quoting bassramy
Tess and tp hang on guys we are almost there after 7-8 years of trading you will not be scared easily also, fear and greed, with time and experience you will get rid of these 2 bad habits but take your time trading is not a sprint its a marathon.
Here is a chart to make you calmer ,TRUST THE SYSTEM AND IT WILL TRUST YOU IN RETURN AND GAVE YOU MULTIPLE REWARDS.
Just look were i scaled in on the chart.

B.R.
I already hit TP and at least for now I don't see a level at hand to re-enter unless it moves up to top of h1 channel. Again.
You lowered TP? The move down was strong, I agree here, but your TP is now what? 1,0130 or so?

I noticed, your template is (as well as mine) a bit different than the original, or am I mistaken?
I use ATR 3.5, your's is a bit smaller. 3.0?

BTW: are you pro trader (only trading for living), or do you also have a job? Based on your posts I would say you don't really need one...

BR
  • #11,857
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:51am Jul 12, 2012 1:51am
Quoting tp0440
I already hit TP and at least for now I don't see a level at hand to re-enter unless it moves up to top of h1 channel. Again.
You lowered TP? The move down was strong, I agree here, but your TP is now what? 1,0130 or so?

I noticed, your template is (as well as mine) a bit different than the original, or am I mistaken?
I use ATR 3.5, your's is a bit smaller. 3.0?

BTW: are you pro trader (only trading for living), or do you also have a job? Based on your posts I would say you don't really need one...

BR
This is my little secret that you discovered right now, the repainting process of this system's indicators, which i found a way to manage it to my advantage ( this is what i mean by repainting is manageable).
I always keep innovating my templates and this system, i never stop if i do i die.
My ATR settings is like always stated, different from Pair to Pair.
Get back to my earliest posts and you can see what i do in life.

By the way I've got stopped out on GU after 28 pips gain (to be honest and to learn better we have to declare our wins and losses too), I'm starting to short UCHF.

B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,858
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:13am Jul 12, 2012 2:13am
Quoting bassramy
This is my little secret that you discovered right now, the repainting process of this system's indicators, which i found a way to manage it to my advantage ( this is what i mean by repainting is manageable).
I always keep innovating my templates and this system, i never stop if i do i die.
My ATR settings is like always stated, different from Pair to Pair.
Get back to my earliest posts and you can see what i do in life.

By the way I've got stopped out on GU after 28 pips gain (to be honest and to learn better we have to declare our wins and losses...


I'm smilling as I am "adopting" to different pairs to. Only I use different levels to where one individual pair must get in order to "confirm" TP or entry. More volatile pairs like GBP, inexes, gold, etc., must reach ATR3.5, less volatile are ok with original band setting ATR2.0. So, idea is identical, just execution is different. This way I can keep 1 template. And yes, I change it a bit constantly. So if I'd have more templates, it wouldn't be manageble.

USDCHF short is 99.9% same thing as EURUSD long. I'm sure you are aware of that, I'm just surprised you prefer to take this pairs instead (I have lower spread on EURUSD). And yes, I entered, for now small position.

I'm glad to see we have a very simmilar though process. You obviousely have much more experience (I'm looking at fx for 2 years, I'm actively trading for 1 year), but based on your results, this is good news for me.

And naturally, nobody wins them all. Anything above 80% win rate is a dream come true with proper money management.

BR
  • #11,859
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:29am Jul 12, 2012 2:29am

< The Ramy Report >



Fundamentals :

-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/currencies/
-http://online.wsj.com/public/page/ne...s-trading.html
-http://www.ft.com/intl/markets/currencies
-http://www.dailyfx.com/

Technicals :

-Dollar Probes Higher as S&P 500 Nears Bearish Reversal Confirmation
-USDJPY Classic Technical Report 07.12.2012
-USDCHF Classic Technical Report 07.12.2012
-GBPUSD Classic Technical Report 07.12.2012

Summary :

- US currency rises against euro as easing hopes fade .
- Dollar rebounds after Fed minutes
- Japan expands asset purchase programme
- Forex traders rage against the machine
- ICAP is latest broker to clamp down on high frequency trades
-Eurozone draws up Spanish aid blueprint
-Dollar Jumps after FOMC Minutes Squash QE3 Hopes, Still No Trend

Daily Calendar : Upcoming important economic announcements, see the FF Calendar.

Daily Trading Wisdom :

"You have to cut your losses fast. The secret for winning in the stock market does not include being right all the time. The key is to lose the least amount possible when you are wrong".
William J. O'Neil

Daily Trading Cartoons : - Trading Software.

Thanks Guys and Good Luck in your trading.
(Disclaimer : Don't Trust me or follow my lead i know nothing about the Financial Markets.)
Attached Image
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,860
  • Edited 6:17am Jul 12, 2012 3:27am | Edited 6:17am
Mission accomplished, patience and discipline rewards.
Commenting on this chart we can see that AU is turning bearish everyday a little bit more.
SLVR just hit my target too.

Best Regards.
B.R.
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
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