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AUD/USD

  • #49,241
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:41am Jul 12, 2012 1:41am
Quoting egkid
I have been posting here for some days but ......High noisy less serious Traders!

CU
egkid, will be missing you bro, see you when the saints go marchin in...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,242
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:42am Jul 12, 2012 1:42am
the usd index is testing a major resistance,if it breaches, the AU will definitely move closer to parity..GU is also at a daily support...the AU has been playing a tight daily channel..macd on the daily is ready to trigger..thats a lot of pips...

the china gdp could also cause quite a scare...this pair is "over-bought"...

trade smartly
It is possible to make large sums trading, small losses, large wins
  • #49,243
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:46am Jul 12, 2012 1:46am
Quoting omadivi
the usd index is testing a major resistance,if it breaches, the AU will definitely move closer to parity..GU is also at a daily support...the AU has been playing a tight daily channel..macd on the daily is ready to trigger..thats a lot of pips...

the china gdp could also cause quite a scare...this pair is "over-bought"...

trade smartly
glad to see someone agreeing but, buddy dont let fundamentals do all the talking.... the 1.0000 parity is a major psyche level with Bid/Offers so huge shit can reverse real fast for days...
but im betting we break below parity... in fact if you want
i have a End of Year target for the EURUSD at 1.20 (predictable) GBPUSD 1.45 (Woah da fuq?? lol yep....) and AUDUSD 0.9500 (we'll see...)

PS. its in the charts...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,244
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:51am Jul 12, 2012 1:51am
Quoting bguguen
glad to see someone agreeing but, buddy dont let fundamentals do all the talking.... the 1.0000 parity is a major psyche level with Bid/Offers so huge shit can reverse real fast for days...
but im betting we break below parity... in fact if you want
i have a End of Year target for the EURUSD at 1.20 (predictable) GBPUSD 1.45 (Woah da fuq?? lol yep....) and AUDUSD 0.9500 (we'll see...)

PS. its in the charts...
I agree with EURUSD and Cable but if the Aussie falls to 0.95 don't you think Fiber will tank too possibly way below 1.20?
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #49,245
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:57am Jul 12, 2012 1:57am
Quoting bguguen
glad to see someone agreeing but, buddy dont let fundamentals do all the talking.... the 1.0000 parity is a major psyche level with Bid/Offers so huge shit can reverse real fast for days...
but im betting we break below parity... in fact if you want
i have a End of Year target for the EURUSD at 1.20 (predictable) GBPUSD 1.45 (Woah da fuq?? lol yep....) and AUDUSD 0.9500 (we'll see...)

PS. its in the charts...
reasonable predictions....the 0.9500 on the AUDUSD is not impossible, but that could mean the EURUSD might hit parity......right now, am selling all rallies, building short positions...we might still get a good retrace upwards....looks like a BEAR year(2012)..it aint over yet, the feds could come out and announce QE3...
It is possible to make large sums trading, small losses, large wins
  • #49,246
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:58am Jul 12, 2012 1:58am
Quoting stulic
I agree with EURUSD and Cable but if the Aussie falls to 0.95 don't you think Fiber will tank too possibly way below 1.20?
to be honest with you..... technically speaking AUDUSD and EURUSD havent been moving like it should....

look at EURAUD.... if EURAUD starts climbing from lows.... theres potential that EURUSD can hold above 1.2 while AUD could tank hard....
i dunno how but lately EURUSD and AUDUSD are not moving the same....
they even look negatively correlated...
if EURUSD falls AUDUSD rises lately... wtf??
Check EURAUD for hints
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,247
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:59am Jul 12, 2012 1:59am
Quoting omadivi
reasonable predictions....the 0.9500 on the AUDUSD is not impossible, but that could mean the EURUSD might hit parity......right now, am selling all rallies, building short positions...we might still get a good retrace upwards....looks like a BEAR year(2012)..it aint over yet, the feds could come out and announce QE3...
Not necessarily as i posted just now... the EURUSD and AUDUSD havent been moving the same... Look for EURAUD for hints of possible hold above 1.20 while AUDUSD tanks to 0.95...
all it takes is a EURAUD retracement....
as of late.... EURUSD and AUDUSD just not moving the same...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,248
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:05am Jul 12, 2012 2:05am
Am I wrong?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: névtelen.JPG Size: 154 KB
"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
  • #49,249
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:08am Jul 12, 2012 2:08am
Quoting bguguen
Not necessarily as i posted just now... the EURUSD and AUDUSD havent been moving the same... Look for EURAUD for hints of possible hold above 1.20 while AUDUSD tanks to 0.95...
all it takes is a EURAUD retracement....
as of late.... EURUSD and AUDUSD just not moving the same...
I agree with you, but I dont think that a prediction from a syntethic pair can make hints on AUDUSD
"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
  • #49,250
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:08am Jul 12, 2012 2:08am
Quoting littlemole
Am I wrong?
Attachment
Bout what?? 1.0162 as a support?? well it is a support but a weak one..... it migh thold for today since the daily range is already 101 when the 5 days average 86, 10 days average 99 and 30 day average 105... we are quite stretched in terms of the daily range.... so we might have a pull back...but M15 bollinger band not showing it yet... we just rewidened to the down side...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,251
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:09am Jul 12, 2012 2:09am
Quoting bguguen
to be honest with you..... technically speaking AUDUSD and EURUSD havent been moving like it should....

look at EURAUD.... if EURAUD starts climbing from lows.... theres potential that EURUSD can hold above 1.2 while AUD could tank hard....
i dunno how but lately EURUSD and AUDUSD are not moving the same....
they even look negatively correlated...
if EURUSD falls AUDUSD rises lately... wtf??
Check EURAUD for hints
They are in a negative correlation and have been for quite some time, EUR/AUD was a great pair to trade bearish for months and months and I don't think some slightly worse then expected job numbers are going to change that trend.
As long as China doesn't hard land EUR/AUD will keep tanking IMHO.
Tomorrow's GDP crucial and will determine the outlook on that pair, I still think it'll touch 1.16 this year.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #49,252
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:11am Jul 12, 2012 2:11am
Quoting littlemole
I agree with you, but I dont think that a prediction from a syntethic pair can make hints on AUDUSD
well right now we can predict shit with EURAUD.... but if EURAUD starts to Bottom out... id be cautious about holding any AUD longs....
Europe's been buying shit loads of gold... if Europe's situation starts to brighten (that is IF, quite a long shot...) gold gets dumped hard for EURO and Australia will suffer big time with their economy strongly correlated with Gold productions....
if EURAUD shows signs of bottoming.... i wont want to hold AUD....
there is just no reason why a small economy like Australia could overtake the Dollar on Speculated Gold Prices....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,253
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:12am Jul 12, 2012 2:12am
Quoting bguguen
egkid, will be missing you bro, see you when the saints go marchin in...
Very nice to see here Now i got the Reason to post If you will
  • #49,254
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:13am Jul 12, 2012 2:13am
Quoting stulic
They are in a negative correlation and have been for quite some time, EUR/AUD was a great pair to trade bearish for months and months and I don't think some slightly worse then expected job numbers are going to change that trend.
As long as China doesn't hard land EUR/AUD will keep tanking IMHO.
Tomorrow's GDP crucial and will determine the outlook on that pair, I still think it'll touch 1.16 this year.
i still think EURUSD will end the year around 1.20 even if it means falling below to 1.15 before a small retrace to finish the year...
happens all the time... then start of 2013 1st quarter shit could hit the fan to tank to 1.10.... and then 1.05 etc etc... you can already picture shit happening like this.... if risk aversion flows stays this strong...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,255
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:23am Jul 12, 2012 2:23am
Quoting bguguen
Not necessarily as i posted just now... the EURUSD and AUDUSD havent been moving the same... Look for EURAUD for hints of possible hold above 1.20 while AUDUSD tanks to 0.95...
all it takes is a EURAUD retracement....
as of late.... EURUSD and AUDUSD just not moving the same...
U last few posts encourage me to revaling more of what i got
I trade long term but let's take step by step
let me tell u 2 things
First
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1341953729
  • #49,256
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:23am Jul 12, 2012 2:23am
Quoting bguguen
to be honest with you..... technically speaking AUDUSD and EURUSD havent been moving like it should....

look at EURAUD.... if EURAUD starts climbing from lows.... theres potential that EURUSD can hold above 1.2 while AUD could tank hard....
i dunno how but lately EURUSD and AUDUSD are not moving the same....
they even look negatively correlated...
if EURUSD falls AUDUSD rises lately... wtf??
Check EURAUD for hints
Because the EUR is doing worse than AUD fundamentally. The other reason is that the rate cuts from the ECB have provided more reason to abuse the EUR/AUD as a carry trade.

EUR/USD drop have been contributed to both USD strength and EUR weakness while the AUD/USD drops have been USD strength for the past weeks.

The bad AUD numbers right now will probably take some heat off the EUR for now and prompt some AUD selling.
  • #49,257
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:30am Jul 12, 2012 2:30am
Quoting Esssex
Because the EUR is doing worse than AUD fundamentally. The other reason is that the rate cuts from the ECB have provided more reason to abuse the EUR/AUD as a carry trade.

EUR/USD drop have been contributed to both USD strength and EUR weakness while the AUD/USD drops have been USD strength for the past weeks.

The bad AUD numbers right now will probably take some heat off the EUR for now and prompt some AUD selling.
actually the AUD selling started as we failed to break above the 1640 barrier on GOLD too... thats one of the reasons for you...
BTW be careful on your theory that ECB lowering interest rates is a bad thing...

In technicality lowering interest rates promotes domestic borrowing to increase domestic spending which SHOULD increase spending...
however with the economic climate we have, people are risk averse so they prefer to save money than to borrow.... so lowered demand causes lowered supply, and lowered supply causes diminishing incomes meaning a further lowering in demand..... its a cycle of chronic growth contraction or even the cause of a recession....

if the europeans were motivated to borrow money to spend, that could potentiall stimulate the economic growth, sadly ECB and that bitch merkel's been limiting supply of money so, interest rates are still very high in Europe for the liking... in fact higher than UK....
seems like the market may be interested if ECB makes a move for a very low interest rate as low as <0.1% or even NEGATIVE interest rate...
negative interest rate is gona cause a whole lot of debate....
but the fundies on it is that it discourages people from Saving and if they cant save.... WOULD they spend it or would they run away... right now it seems they would still run away....

sad times....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,258
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:34am Jul 12, 2012 2:34am
Quoting egkid
U last few posts encourage me to revaling more of what i got
I trade long term but let's take step by step
let me tell u 2 things
First
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1341953729
Interesting chart but what is it?? looks nice to sell
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #49,259
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:36am Jul 12, 2012 2:36am
Break of a hourly support.
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Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #49,260
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:38am Jul 12, 2012 2:38am
Quoting bguguen
Interesting chart but what is it?? looks nice to sell
E/U , hope it clear
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